Tricks of the trends after Week 8
Steve Smith is playing out of his mind in 2011 and he must be the happiest person on the planet that Cam Newton is his quarterback.
|
|
|
|
 |
Through eight games, Smith leads the NFL with 918 receiving yards and is turning in a historically efficient season. Smith is tied for seventh at 9.1 targets per game, but what he is doing with them is truly remarkable.
To put that in perspective, Tampa Bay's Mike Williams also is averaging 9.1 targets per game but has 501 fewer receiving yards than Smith despite playing in only one fewer game.
Smith is averaging 12.6 yards per target and 20 yards per catch, the second- and first-ranked averages, respectively, among the 60 most targeted receivers in the NFL. Not too shabby for a 32-year-old, “undersized” receiver.
Target observations after Week 8 ...
• Jeremy Maclin is becoming a special receiver and I think his best is yet to come. Maclin is averaging 10.1 yards per target despite averaging just 13.6 yards per catch. That 3.5 yard differential is the smallest among any receiver in the top 70 in targets who is over 10 yards per target by more than a yard. The reason Maclin is able to pull off that feat is that he is catching a league best 74.1 percent of his targets. Maclin has 40 catches in seven games despite seeing only 54 passes, which is remarkable when you consider that Michael Vick is completing 63 percent of his passes overall. Not a bad showing for a guy who battled a mysterious illness all offseason. He is by far the most complete receiver in Philadelphia and I am calling for a bump up to the nine-plus targets per game range for Maclin, who is playing like an elite receiver and should be targeted like one.
• Miles Austin has been very disappointing over his last three weeks and 12 catches for 117 yards and no touchdowns. He has seen only 18 targets in those games and while he is catching 67 percent of them, he is averaging just 6.5 yards per target. Before hurting his hamstring, Austin was averaging 12 targets per game and nearly 10 yards per target. Hopefully the hamstring is fully behind him, but the numbers are showing that Austin is really slowing down and while I think he bounces back, it is certainly a cause for concern.
• Quick, name the last time Steve Johnson topped 60 yards receiving in a game. If you said September 25, you would be correct. It has been four straight games and more than a month since Johnson reached 60 yards receiving in a single game. He has just one touchdown during that span, so despite being a “top” option at receiver, he sure is starting to look a lot more like the bust I expected heading into the year. In his last four games, Johnson has 19 catches, but they have produced just 183 yards and the one score. He is averaging just 9.6 yards per catch (was at 12.8 in September) over the last month and his metrics are starting to bear a scary resemblance to his second half swoon in 2010. Over the last month, Johnson has seen 30 targets, which means he is averaging a paltry six yards per target (he was at 8.5 yards per target in September). When he went on his slide in 2010, Johnson was averaging, you guessed it, 5.9 yards per target after averaging 8.7 when he was on fire early in that season. The parallels here are scary and I do not see Johnson getting hot against Darrelle Revis in Week 9.
• Antonio Brown may be becoming a legit third receiver option for your teams after pacing the Steelers with nine catches for 67 yards and his first score of the season. Brown now has a team high 24 targets and 16 catches over the last two weeks and while he has not hit the big play (10.5 yards per catch), he has clearly earned the trust of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
• Sidney Rice has a 100 percent consistency rate with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback as he has topped 100 yards or scored in all three of those games. The reason? Opportunities. With Jackson under center, Rice has seen 30 total targets in three games. With Charlie Whitehurst under center for all or half of the game, Rice saw 10 targets in two outings. Jackson knows Rice from their days in Minnesota and if he continues to see 10 targets per game, he will continue to produce.
• What is this, 2009? It sure seems like it is if you picked up Brent Celek (from Cincinnati -- love that player intro) and played him the last two weeks. After starting the year with 21 targets, nine catches and 73 yards in his first five games, Celek is back to being a major part of the Eagles' offense. In his last two games alone, Celek has seen 18 targets, which he has turned into 11 catches for 136 yards and his only two scores of the season. He has seen nine targets in each of the last two games and has been the third-ranked tight end from Weeks 6-8 (25.6 points) despite having a Week 7 bye. He has been the No. 1 Fantasy tight end on a points-per-game basis during that span.
• If you had a running back who was struggling to run the ball, but had 27 catches (tied for sixth among all runners) you'd think you were at least getting solid total yardage production from him right? Think again, because Chris Johnson can't run away from his own shadow as a runner or a receiver. CJ does have 27 catches but they have produced only 160 yards. So despite being sixth with 27 receptions, he is just 14th in receiving yards. Johnson's hatred of efficiency in 2011 is appalling as his 5.9 yards per catch is the worst among the 12 most targeted runners and his 4.2 yards per target is second worst. Again, teammate Javon Ringer is averaging 7.6 yards per catch and 7.2 yards per target so it is no wonder the Titans are really considering a running back by committee approach.
• Target Leaders by position for Week 8: Wide receiver: Pierre Garcon (15), Antonio Brown (15), Reggie Wayne (14); Tight end: Jason Witten (12) and Dallas Clark (10); Running back: Ray Rice (nine) and Chris Ogbonnaya (eight).
• Yards Per Target Leaders by position after Week 8: Wide receiver: Mike Wallace (13.8) and Jordy Nelson (13.3); Tight end: Jake Ballard (13.7) and Rob Gronkowski (10.5); Running back: Fred Jackson (10.7) and Michael Bush (10.1).
• Worst Yards Per Target by position after Week 8 (in other words, who did the least with the most): Wide receiver: Demaryius Thomas (2.8) and Austin Collie (3.9); Tight end: Marcedes Lewis (4.8) and Kellen Winslow (4.9) Running back: Beanie Wells (1.3) and Willis McGahee (2.9).
Red Zone
• Tony Romo is struggling in the red zone in 2011 which is very uncharacteristic for him. He currently has a poor 15 percent red zone touchdown rate, worst among the 12 busiest quarterbacks inside the 20. To put that into perspective, Romo had a 27 percent red zone touchdown rate from 2008-2010 and had two seasons of greater than 30 percent. With all of the weapons at his disposal you would think Romo would be doing better inside the 20 and I think he will as the season goes on.
• Tim Tebow's games should not be watched unless he is inside the opponent's 20-yard line because the man knows how to score the ball. Of the 38 quarterbacks with at least 10 chances inside the 20, Tebow has an NFL-best 40 percent red zone touchdown rate. Tebow is also the only quarterback in NFL history to have a red zone touchdown rate that is less than 7 percent behind his completion percentage (46.1), which is a rather dubious distinction.
Want more from our industry-leading writers Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg? Take their Fantasy advice with you on-the-go with our Fantasy Football Podcasts. Listen to the latest episode or subscribe for free in iTunes and get your Fantasy fix wherever you are. Listen to our latest episode!Subscribe via iTunes today! |
• Steven Jackson would have gone down as one of the all time great running backs in NFL history if he played for a better team the last few years, because the man can do it all. Even with very little help around him, Jackson continues to produce serious total yardage figures and is even starting to find the end zone with regularity in 2011, which is music to his Fantasy owner's ears. Jackson now has a 36.4 percent red zone scoring rate after his monster game against the Saints, best among the 38 runners with at least 10 chances this year. To put that into perspective, consider the fact that Jackson had a 7 percent red zone touchdown rate in 2010, worst among the 37 busiest runners inside the 20.
• LeSean McCoy had six red zone scores and an 11.8 percent scoring rate in 2010. Well, what a difference a year makes. After just seven games, McCoy has a league high nine red zone scores and a robust 23.1 percent red zone touchdown rate, fifth best among the 38 backs with 10-plus chances. He could be even better than Brian Westbrook because he is showing that he can get it done between the tackles when needed in addition to being one of the most explosive dual-threat backs in the NFL.
• Ryan Grant, with 11 red zone chances, still has had the most opportunities without a single score.
• Sure, Tony Romo been bad in the red zone, but the Dallas Cowboys' running backs have been even worse. DeMarco Murray (10/0), Felix Jones (11/1) and Tashard Choice (9/0) have a combined one red zone score on 30 chances. That is easily the least efficient running back group in the NFL. If the Boys can figure it out up close, they will go on a big winning streak.
• Scott Chandler only has 15 catches on the year, but six of them have gone for scores. All six of those touchdowns have come inside the 20, which makes him the league leader among all pass catchers regardless of position. He does not get enough regular looks, but he has 11 red zone targets (second at tight end). Add that fact to his league-high six red zone touchdowns and Chandler is not a bad touchdown-only league tight end.
Goal Line
• How about Matt Ryan inside the 5-yard line? He has had nine passes plus rushes and eight of them have resulted in a touchdown for a league-high 89 percent goal line touchdown rate. If he can start hitting some bombs, look out in the second half of the season.
• Beanie Wells scored only the seventh rushing touchdown allowed by the Baltimore Ravens in their last 23 games in Week 8 and now has an NFL-best seven goal line scores and 75 percent goal line touchdown rate, best among the 28 runners with at least four chances this year.
• Maurice Jones-Drew is having a remarkable season under the circumstances, but it could be a lot better with more efficiency at the stripe. MJD has just one score despite seeing seven goal line chances, and his 14 percent touchdown rate is the worst among the 28 runners with at least four opportunities.
• Deion Branch has been another valuable weapon at the strip for Tom Brady in 2011. The crafty veteran is second among all wide receivers with three goal line scores and is tied for first with six goal line targets. Amazingly, for a wide receiver, all of Branch's touchdowns this year have come from inside the 5-yard line.
• Brandon Marshall is the only running back, wide receiver or tight end who has seen four or more goal line opportunities and failed to score a single touchdown up close.
| |
| Target Conversion Rate or Catch Rate (TCR): The percentage of a player's targets (passes thrown to them) that are converted into receptions. Over 60 percent is excellent, 66 percent is elite and under 52.5 percent is worrisome. Yards per Target (YPT): A player's receiving yards divided by his targets. In other words, the numbers of yards a team gains on average every time they attempt a pass to a certain player. Over 10 is exceptional, over 8 is solid and 6 or lower is horrendous. Red Zone Opportunities: A player's total number of pass+rush+targets inside the opponent's 20 yard line Red Zone TD Rate: The percentage of a player's Red Zone opportunities that result in a TD Goal Line Opportunities: A player's total number of pass+rush+targets inside the opponent's 5 yard line Goal Line TD Rate: The percentage of a player's Goal Line opportunities that result in a TD Consistency Rate: The percentage of quality starts a player gives you out of 16 games. For QBs that is a game with 300+ yards passing OR multiple TDs. For RBs/WRs: A game with 100+ yards rush/rec or a game with a TD. For TEs: A game with 60+ yards receiving or a TD. For a Kicker: A game with multiple FGs. Big Game Rate: The percentage of dominant starts a player gives you out of 16 games (games missed with injury count as a bad game since they do not help your Fantasy teams). For a QB that is a game with 300+ yards and 2+ TDs or 200+ yards and 3+ TDs. For a RB/WR that is a game with 100+ combined rush/rec yards and a TD or a game with multiple TDs. For a TE that is a game of 60+ yards and a TD, 100+ yards or a game with multiple TDs. |
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Nathan at @NathanZeguraTFC .
