Tuesday November 29, 2011 - 4:48 PM

Fantasy & Reality: Re-tiering your receivers

By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
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Consider yourself lucky if you're happy with your receivers after 12 weeks. Chances are a good combination of drafting and fishing in the free-agent pool made such a thing possible.

But for the rest of us who don't have a horseshoe stuck up our ... belly buttons ... the receiver position is a mess filled with second-guessing and disappointments. Here's a perfect example: Receivers who have finished among the Top 12 in standard-scoring leagues over the last four weeks include Jabar Gaffney and Torrey Smith. Studs such as Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith aren't even among the Top 30! The story is obviously different if we're talking about year-to-date results -- Calvin's still No. 1 overall and he, Smith and Nicks are all among the Top 15 -- but that's data to reflect on in the spring and next summer. What's happening here and now is what matters most, especially heading into what will be a make-or-break week for many of us.

Plus, it's never a good idea to start a player based solely on what he's done. You don't get Fantasy points for what a guy's produced already. This in turn begs the question, What are the good reasons for starting a receiver?

• Talent of the receiver ... Obviously, if a guy is good then he'll play a lot and have ample opportunities to produce stats. We've seen many receivers who have some good weeks and then disappear from the stat sheets because he's been exposed as a subpar talent. It won't be long before said receiver will disappear from the league (Mike Sims-Walker is a recent example).

• Talent of the quarterback ... In the wake of injuries to several starters, forcing backups and third-stringers into action, this point can't be emphasized enough. If the quarterback isn't very good, the receiver won't have as good of a chance to succeed. There's no better example of this than Reggie Wayne in 2003-10 and Reggie Wayne in 2011. Maybe Wayne isn't the receiver he was a few years ago, but you can bet that he'd be a lot better this year if he had a reliable passer throwing the ball his way.

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• Matchup for the quarterback ... If a quarterback is pressing and getting hit, then his receivers could be Hall of Famers and they'll still struggle. Similarly, if a quarterback has several seconds to find his best receiver and throw an accurate pass, then even the most mediocre receivers can be productive. Matt Moore's recent bump in production has been because of some good matchups for him, and it's trickled down to Brandon Marshall.

• Targets for the receiver ... This is typically tied into talent: If a receiver is good, he'll get passes thrown his way. If we can count on those targets, we can assume that a receiver can catch a high percentage of them and convert them into good stats. Through 11 games, 24 receivers have averaged at least seven targets per game, which is a decent number to have. Of course, that list includes guys like Greg Little, Mike Williams and the Colts receivers -- players who have struggled to put up anything more than receptions. I think we could find reasons why these guys are an exception to the target rule.

• Expectations for the offense ... Will the receiver's team be expected to play in a close game or play from behind? Or is it likely that the receiver's team will jump out to a lead and run the ball more than normal? It goes without saying that you want receivers with as many opportunities to catch passes as possible.

• Matchup for the receiver ... This is a significant but not absolute factor when considering a receiver. Naturally there are cases where a consistently great cornerback or defensive scheme will negatively impact a wideout. But those great corners and great defensive schemes are usually paired with a great pass rush; certainly that's the case in Baltimore as the Ravens' cornerbacks aren't stifling talents even though they've collectively given up just seven touchdowns to receivers on the season.

So with that criteria in mind, let's do something we've done in the past and set up tiers for receivers headed into the final five weeks of the NFL season. There's no point to dilly-dally with low-end options or deep sleepers. Instead, we'll tier 27 receivers who should be considered must-starts in Fantasy and then group another 19 receivers who can also start for Fantasy owners based on one of two relevant factors: potential and safety. Again, this for the final five weeks only.

What makes these guys must-starts? Check out the criteria listed above when considering starters in Fantasy: They play a lot, they play well and they produce fairly well. Like any player in Fantasy, it might not happen from week to week but if you play the odds and start these guys, you shouldn't suffer long. They're ranked by tier, so you should feel great about your chances if you have two or more of these guys on your roster.

Not everyone has these guys at their disposal from week to week, and certainly they are not the only guys worth starting in Fantasy.

Let's start with the upside guys: All of these receivers represent talents who can explode for big games just as easily as lay a goose egg. DeSean Jackson's 2011 season has been a roller coaster in that he had three games with 14 or more Fantasy points and five with four or less in his first eight games. In his last two he's been right at seven or eight points, leaving lots of stats on the field along the way because of dumb penalties or drops. Point is, he's not a consistent, reliable receiver for a certain amount of stats. But the allure of starting him in case he has a big game is why Fantasy owners are still using him in nearly 70 percent of leagues.

The safe guys aren't locks for a set amount of Fantasy points, but we feel good about expecting over 60 yards from them with a shot at a touchdown from week to week. They play a lot, they're involved a lot, and while they shouldn't be counted on to have a huge week (though they're certainly capable), at least the chances of them being a bust like someone from the upside list are slimmer.

Some owners don't have a choice -- they have to start their best receivers regardless of how they rank on a list. But for those owners who do have some roster flexibility, the decision to go with an upside receiver vs. a safe receiver can go a long way. Obviously, the name of the game is to score as many Fantasy points as possible -- is the rest of your roster set up so that you can afford to take a risk at receiver? If so, then the upside receiver is definitely the way to go. But let's say you're thin at running back or tight end and know that there are some boom-or-bust talents there -- in those instances the safe receivers are better options.

All things being equal, I prefer the upside guys in a given week so long as they have favorable matchups. It's always more fun to go for the gusto than it is to "settle." That's a good real-life lesson, too.

When great receivers get bad quarterbacks

You might notice some big names getting bad placement in the tiers. Andre Johnson and Dwayne Bowe, to name two, aren't among the elite talents. It has nothing to do with missed games for Johnson and partially to do with some bad games recently for Bowe. It has everything to do with their quarterback situations.

Bowe has spent the last two weeks catching passes from Tyler Palko, who replaced Matt Cassel as the starter when Cassel got hurt. On 20 targets Bowe swiped 14 passes for 156 yards and no touchdowns. If Todd Haley follows through with his word and keeps Palko under center while Kyle Orton simmers on the bench, Bowe will continue to struggle. It's worth noting that in his nine games with Cassel he averaged 16.1 yards per catch. In the two with Palko he's got 11.1 per grab. That's a very common result of a receiver working with a weak arm. If Orton gets in there, there will be more optimism for Bowe.

And so something similar might happen with Johnson now that the Texans are forced to go with T.J. Yates at quarterback. Yates was pegged as a project pick for Houston; a decent arm with some mobility but definitely raw. The Texans will keep things simple for Yates, likely asking him to spread the ball around and stick with a basic principle of West Coast Offense passing: keep it short. Johnson might need seven-plus catches to deliver good yardage, negating his explosion and the chance at some big plays.

Who's got the matchups?

Here are five teams with favorable passing schedules to end the season, and five with some tough sledding ahead.

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