Even with Heat chasing repeat, Spurs are odds-on favorites

It's an odd-numbered year, which of course means the spirit of Fiesta in San Antonio will extend deep into June.

It's tradition.

In 1999, 2003 and 2005, the Spurs took home NBA championships. Their chances for 2007 shape up beautifully if you believe Tim Duncan. The man says he's fully healthy. He says his foot problems had already begun to subside during the playoffs, which just happened to coincide with when he started to look like Tim Duncan again. A summer of rest has done him wonders.

Tim Duncan and the Spurs have to look up to Shaq's Heat -- for now. (Getty Images)

When he, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are healthy and out there together, there's not a better trio in the league. They have more rings than any other combination currently out there, and they're about to add to their collection.

Had Ginobili not fouled Dirk Nowitzki late in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals, I'm convinced the Spurs would be chasing their third consecutive title. Instead, Dallas stepped forward and took advantage of the break, but couldn't seal the deal with a championship. The Mavs and Spurs will go at it again, this time in the conference finals, and the Spurs will end up advancing.

Miami will get back to the NBA Finals by outlasting Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals, which of course delivers the first of what will likely be many Dwyane Wade-LeBron James playoff classics.

Duncan vs. Shaquille O'Neal will highlight the championship round, generating debates on which one of them is the best big man of his generation. Riveting stuff.

Here's the rest of my 2006-07 forecast:

Elton Brand: MVP? (Getty Images)

MVP: Elton Brand, L.A. Clippers. Much like last season, there will be no shortage of candidates and yet no clear-cut choice. That's why I'm going with Brand. Last year, he was a novelty candidate and probably didn't get as much credit as he deserved for the Clippers' finish. This year, he will be difficult to ignore. He'll edge James, Duncan, Wade, two-time defending honoree Steve Nash and Chauncey Billups in the voting.

Rookie of the Year: Adam Morrison, Charlotte. The three-man race between Morrison, Portland's Brandon Roy and Memphis' Rudy Gay will be stats-driven, because you can be sure these guys won't taste many wins as rookies. Morrison's scoring prowess gets the nod over Roy's steady versatility.

Defensive Player of the Year: Andrei Kirilenko, Utah. Provided he stays healthy, this promises to be a bounce-back year for the Russian octopus, who seemingly gets his hands on any ball remotely in his vicinity. Ben Wallace's ownership of the award will slip through his hands in his first year in Chicago, while Ron Artest and Tayshaun Prince also figure to challenge for top honors.

Anderson Varejao (Getty Images)

Sixth Man Award: Anderson Varejao, Cleveland. He'll be a large part of what the Cavaliers want to do this year, which starts with his boundless energy. Expect Mike Brown to get him about 30 minutes a night to do his thing, which will generate a healthy amount of points, rebounds and blocks. The Brazilian forward's impact goes way beyond stats, however. He allows the Cavs to use a quicker lineup, is probably their best post defender and can be a factor in the pick-and-roll game with LeBron, thanks to an improved jumper.

Most Improved Player: Josh Smith, Atlanta. The 20-year-old forward is going to be a major part of what the Hawks do up front, especially now that Marvin Williams will miss time. Smith committed to improving in the offseason and knows he has to put in a lot of work to reach his enormous ceiling. This is the season where he becomes known for more than just his ridiculous athleticism. Sacramento's Kevin Martin will be a worthy runner-up.

Coach of the Year: Jerry Sloan, Utah. The longest tenured coach in pro sports will win his 1,000th game this season, but that won't be where the highlights end. If everyone can stay healthy, the Jazz will break their playoff drought by winning the Northwest Division. Other top candidates will include Cleveland's Mike Brown and Sacramento's Eric Musselman.

All-NBA First Team
F LeBron James, Cleveland
F Elton Brand, L.A. Clippers
C Tim Duncan, San Antonio
G Steve Nash, Phoenix
G Dwyane Wade, Miami

All-NBA Second Team
F Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas
F Kevin Garnett, Minnesota
C Yao Ming, Houston
G Chauncey Billups, Detroit
G Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers

All-NBA Third Team
F Carmelo Anthony, Denver
F Paul Pierce, Boston
C Shaquille O'Neal, Miami
G Jason Kidd, New Jersey
G Tracy McGrady, Houston

All-NBA Defensive First Team
F Tayshaun Prince, Detroit
F Ron Artest, Sacramento
F Andrei Kirilenko, Utah
C Ben Wallace, Chicago
G Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers

All-NBA Defensive Second Team
F Bruce Bowen, San Antonio
F Shane Battier, Houston
C Dwight Howard, Orlando
G Chauncey Billups, Detroit
G Larry Hughes, Cleveland

All-Rookie First Team
F Rudy Gay, Memphis
F Adam Morrison, Charlotte
F/C Shelden Williams, Atlanta
G Rajon Rondo, Boston
G Brandon Roy, Portland

All-Rookie Second Team
F Jorge Garbajosa, Toronto
F/C Andrea Bargnani, Toronto
C Mouhamed Sene, Seattle
G Randy Foye, Minnesota
G Ronnie Brewer, Utah