For the gambler in you, Week 16
Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.
Game One: Seahawks +1.5 vs. 49ers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
| 2012 Against The Spread | |
 |  |
| Overall: 10-4 | Overall: 9-5 |
| Home: 6-0 | Home: 4-3 |
| Away: 4-4 | Away: 5-2 |
| Last 5 vs. SF: 2-3 | Last 5 vs. SEA: 3-2 |
| 2012 Team Rankings | |
| |
| Pass offense: 27th | Pass defense: 5th |
| Rush offense: 3rd | Rush defense: 3rd |
| Pass defense: 3rd | Pass offense: 26th |
| Rush defense: 10th | Rush offense: 2nd |
Verdict: The Seahawks have scored 108 points in the past two games and have one of the toughest defenses in the league. I still don't trust 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick to win a playoff-type game on the road. Plus, look at Seattle's record against the spread at home. Go with Seattle.
Game Two: Chiefs +7.5 vs. Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
| 2012 Against The Spread | |
 |  |
| Overall: 5-9 | Overall: 9-5 |
| Home: 3-4 | Home: 6-1 |
| Away: 2-5 | Away: 3-4 |
| Last 5 vs. IND: 3-2 | Last 5 vs. KC: 2-3 |
| 2012 Team Rankings | |
| |
| Pass offense: 31st | Pass defense: 21st |
| Rush offense: 7th | Rush defense: 23rd |
| Pass defense: 7th | Pass offense: 8th |
| Rush defense: 27th | Rush offense: 21st |
Verdict: In our weekly experts picks, I'm the only one to pick the Chiefs in this game. So, why am I going with Kansas City? Good question. I'm not exactly sure. Maybe my wondrous pick of Arizona winning straight-up last week has me feeling over-confident. Maybe it's because I feel like Brady Quinn, at some point, will draw inspiration from his alma mater. That explanation probably doesn't inspire much confidence in you, but I'm still going with Kansas City to cover.
Game Three (largest spread of week): Jaguars +14.5 vs. Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
| 2012 Against The Spread | |
 |  |
| Overall: 6-8 | Overall: 8-6 |
| Home: 1-6 | Home: 3-4 |
| Away: 5-2 | Away: 5-2 |
| Last 3 vs. NE: 0-3 | Last 3 vs. JAX: 3-0 |
| 2012 Team Rankings | |
| |
| Pass offense: 24th | Pass defense: 29th |
| Rush offense: 30th | Rush defense: 11th |
| Pass defense: 24th | Pass offense: 3rd |
| Rush defense: 32nd | Rush offense: 8th |
Verdict: I'm not sure we've seen a line grow this large this season, but it's most certainly appropriate and I certainly would take New England. There's very little to like about this Jaguars team, and the Patriots, once again, are Super Bowl contenders. If the line was 20, I'd still take New England.
PROP BETS
Greg McElroy -- total passing yards Week 16?
Over/Under 190 1/2
Despite him being a major factor in leading the Jets to a win against the Cardinals a couple weeks ago, I'm guessing McElroy's starting debut will not end well. But get to 191 yards? Yeah, I like those chances.
Will the Broncos win every game from Week 16 until the Super Bowl, becoming Super Bowl Champions? (Note: For this to happen, the Broncos would end up winning 14 straight games)
Yes 11-2
No, I like the Patriots and Texans ahead of the Broncos to be the AFC's representative in the Super Bowl.
Last week: 1-2 against the spread (hit on Broncos -2.5 vs. Ravens; missed on Giants +1.5 vs. Falcons, Colts +9.5 vs. Texans). 0-2 on prop bets (missed on Ray Rice going over 19.5 carries, the Cardinals not ending the season on a 12-game losing streak)
Overall: 20-25 against the spread; 28-13-1 on prop bets; four props still undecided (Ken Whisenhunt first coach to get fired; Robert Griffin III won't lead the league in completion percentage at the end of the regular season; Andrew Luck will lead all rookies with touchdowns thrown; Aldon Smith won't break Michael Strahan's sack record of 22.5).
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