Bengals Game Preview vs. Raiders: Analysis, prediction and TV info

By Paul Dehner Jr. | CBSSports.com

Raiders at Bengals -- Week 12

Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati. (turf, outdoors)

When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Spread: Bengals by 8.5

Forecast: Temperatures expected in high 40s, only 10 percent chance of rain

Records: Bengals (Overall: 5-5, AFC North: 1-3); Raiders (Overall: 3-7, AFC West 1-2)

Past results: Two most recent regular-season meetings -- Nov. 22, 2009: Raiders 20, Bengals 17; Dec. 10, 2006: Bengals 27, Raiders 10. Series record: Raiders lead 20-8.

What matters: The return of Carson Palmer. All other storylines beg for mercy. Two years ago, Palmer changed the direction of the franchise in a blur of front office embarrassment and posturing when he demanded to either be traded or he would retire, consequently leaving $50 million on the table. He reportedly stated he would never set foot in Paul Brown Stadium again with the Bengals. After eventually being traded to Oakland last October, Palmer finally returns. For the first time he'll face a fan base once filled with his jerseys, but also one which booed repeatedly during his 20-interception debacle in the 2010 season.
Palmer was the highly-paid chosen one of President Mike Brown and this organization. He left it and insulted it when the going got tough with four years left on his contract.
Now, his jerseys still remain, but with tape over the nameplate and replaced in marker with "Quitter."
"I expect it to be loud and extremely electric," Palmer said. "I'm not exactly expecting a welcome back. But I know it's going to be loud, they always are extremely loud when the opposing offense is on the field and I'm sure it will be just a little bit louder with me out there."

Who matters: Palmer. Seriously, could it be anybody else? Palmer's numbers this season compare with some of the best in his career (3,035 yards, 17 TDs), but the turnover problem continues to haunt as a carryover from his days in Cincinnati.

He threw six pick-6 interceptions in 2010 and near every fan in Bengals gear will be rooting for another inside PBS.

Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and head coach Marvin Lewis know every detail of Palmer's habits -- good and bad. He can make every throw and will test the Bengals vertically. Fueled by a renewed pass rush from the front four and solid secondary play, however, the Bengals haven't allowed a single completion longer than 26 yards the last two weeks. They need the trend to continue.

Key matchups: TE Jermaine Gresham vs. SS Tyvon Branch. The Bengals needed a second weapon to take pressure off WR A.J. Green all year. The last three weeks, Gresham provided it. He's caught 15 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown while blocking to create holes for a resurgent running game. When he makes plays over the middle of the field it attracts the eyes of the safeties long enough to let Green do what he does -- which is catch a TD pass in nine consecutive games.
The Raiders enter 32nd in the NFL in points allowed and have allowed an average of 45 points per game the last three weeks. Mismatches are everywhere for Cincinnati and Gresham breaking free unlocks them all.

Injuries of note: WR Andrew Hawkins (knee) was listed as doubtful and will likely miss a second consecutive week. On a brighter note for the Bengals, rookie WR Marvin Jones (knee) is probable and should return for the first time in a month. Look for WR Mohamed Sanu to take most of Hawkins' snaps in the slot with Jones playing much of the time on the outside. The coaches like Jones' ability to stretch the field more than any other No. 2 WR on the roster.

Inside stuff: The Bengals rank 22nd in the league in rushing yards per attempt but may be hitting their stride on the ground. Last week, the they totaled 189 yards rushing against Kansas City by finally finding a change-of-pace back to take pressure off BenJarvus Green-Ellis. RB Cedric Peerman gradually earned more and more snaps since RB Bernard Scott (ACL) went on IR. Twice he took fake punts for long runs to give him an 8.5-yard average per carry. Take out those fake punts and he's still averaging 5.2 yards.

He provides a darting explosion the grinding Green-Ellis doesn't and creates a well-rounded running game. It should be available Sunday. The last three weeks, the Raiders allowed an average of 170 yards per game on the ground.

Connections: Some guy named Palmer used to play quarterback in Cincinnati. Beyond that, Bengals secondary and special teams assistant Hue Jackson was the head coach of the Raiders last season before being fired.

He's as familiar with the Raiders roster as any opposing coach could be and using it as much to his advantage as possible.

"I maybe can shed some light on a thing or two here or there, but at the end of the day it's going to be two really good football teams out there playing and they're going to do everything they can to win and we're going to do everything we can to win," Jackson said. "It comes down to who wants it the most and blocking and tackling and catching and running and all those things you do during football games."

Stat you should know: The Bengals expect to give QB Andy Dalton plenty of time to throw Sunday. The Raiders struggle to rush the passer and rank dead last in sacks per play. They collected but 11 sacks on the season.

On the flip side, Cincinnati has sacked the quarterback 30 times this year and seven times the last two weeks.

Record watch: A.J. Green has caught a touchdown pass in nine consecutive games. He's tied with Lance Alworth for third longest streak in NFL history for a single season. Another TD would tie him for second with Elroy "Crazylegs" Hirsch. The record was set by Jerry Rice with 12 in 1987.

Bulletin board quote: Palmer on if he ever felt the need to explain to former teammates why he demanded a trade from Cincinnati:

"I think that anybody that's ever played for that ownership knows what I was doing and why I was doing it."

Looking ahead: The Bengals' playoff push looks more and more likely by the week. With a win they would move above .500 and stare down a slate of San Diego (4-6), Dallas (5-6) and Philadelphia (3-7). Only one game behind Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, a run seems attainable particularly if they notch a third consecutive victory.

Prediction: Bengals 38, Raiders 24

Follow Paul Dehner Jr. for Bengals updates on Twitter @CBSBengals.

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