The first-round order to the draft is starting to take shape, save playoff results and three ties to be broken by coin flips at the Combine in February. Chicago or Jacksonville will be awarded the 10th overall pick, Carolina or Tennessee the 16th overall selection and Atlanta or Houston the 19th overall selection. Chicago's pick belongs to Denver as part of the Jay Cutler trade.
Playoff results and teams' record/opponents' winning percentage will determine the final order of spots 21-32. The NFL changed the way the draft order is decided for this year, with all playoff teams selecting in the final 12 picks, in the order in which they were eliminated from the tournament, along with their regular-season record and opponents' winning percentage for tiebreaker purposes.
Now that the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft has passed, the talent available to teams at the top of the draft has also taken shape. This year's senior class does not have many elite players, so it is possible that more underclassmen will be chosen in the first round than ever before (a record 15 went in the initial stanza in 2004 and 2009). Typically about half of the top 10 picks are underclassmen, but as many as seven or eight may be selected that high this year.
Predicting potential free agents is also difficult, as 2010 will be an uncapped year unless a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is approved by the league and the players' association. If no agreement is reached, fourth and fifth-year veterans will be restricted free agents and teams will have an additional transition tag to keep their best players.
2009 NFL Mock Draft - 2/4/2010
Round 1
1. St. Louis Rams
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: The Rams could use a young quarterback to take over for Marc Bulger, so Jimmy Clausen might be in the mix here. But the dominant Suh is clearly the top prospect in this year's draft, so he may be too hard to pass up.
2. Detroit Lions
Eric Berry, FS, Tennessee: Berry's versatile play could land him as a playmaking free safety in the Lions' defense or at cornerback, where the team also has a definite need.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma: Chris Hovan and Ryan Sims aren't getting the job done inside and McCoy and Roy Miller should be a good tandem in 2010.
4. Washington Redskins
Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State: Okung could play left or right tackle depending on the status of veteran LT Chris Samuels. New coach Mike Shanahan will work with QB Jason Campbell and will hope that improved play from the offensive line will help his new pupil.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Joe Haden, CB, Florida: By the time the draft rolls around, Haden should be considered not only one of the best cornerbacks in the draft, but one of the best athletes and football players.
6. Seattle Seahawks
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: The Seahawks came to realize that T.J. Houshmandzadeh is not a No. 1 receiver, and must add impact players on offense. Bryant's suspension for lying to the NCAA will not drop him out of the top 10.
7. Cleveland Browns
Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: Mike Holmgren has no ties to Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson, neither of whom has proven themselves as an NFL starter. Even though Bradford has durability issues, the team will covet his rare accuracy.
8. Oakland Raiders
Everson Griffen, DE, Southern California: If Richard Seymour isn't re-signed after the season, the Raiders will need a size-speed player in the front four. Griffen will wow everyone, including Al Davis, at the Combine.
9. Buffalo Bills
Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame: Buffalo's quarterback play in 2009 was less than stellar. Clausen's command of a pro style offense at Notre Dame will only be improved upon under Chan Gailey's tutelage.
10. Denver Broncos (from Chicago)
Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee: Williams has climbed up draft charts with his performance in Mobile at the Senior Bowl, just like NT B.J. Raji did last year. Williams joins former Tennessee teammate OLB Robert Ayers to bulk up the Broncos' front seven.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars
Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama: This pick may be too high for the Jaguars to select QB Tim Tebow, so they'll need to upgrade the athleticism of their LB corps. If McClain can't play inside for the Jaguars he has the physical tools to make the transition outside.
12. Miami Dolphins
Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson: Jason Taylor's future is uncertain and Joey Porter wants out of town (the feeling appears to be mutual). Sapp's length and athleticism make him a perfect fit as a 3-4 rush linebacker.
13. San Francisco 49ers
Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers: If RBs Frank Gore and Glen Coffee are more effective, the passing game will also make gains. Davis could play either left or right tackle, but may be best on the strong side because of his strength.
14. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa: Teams may be concerned with the troubles he had with Big Ten rushers Brandon Graham and O'Brien Schofield and the thyroid condition that caused him to miss three games. If doctors agree that his illness is truly a one-time event, then his strong play in the Orange Bowl may cause him to rise up draft boards.
15. New York Giants
Earl Thomas, CB, Texas: The back half of the Giants defense gave up too many big plays over the course of last season. Pairing the playmaking Thomas with SS Kenny Phillips should help the Giants create more turnovers.
16. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)
Taylor Mays, FS, Southern California: Upgrading the safety position with Mays would help Mike Singletary bring a bit more attitude to his defensive unit. Though he was not fluid in coverage at the Senior Bowl practices, scouts know that Mays is an intimidating force in the defensive backfield.
17. Tennessee Titans
Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech: Thirty-something DEs Jevon Kearse and Kyle Vanden Bosch are scheduled to be free agents. Morgan's talent is impressive, but his inability to beat either Iowa tackle off the edge in the Orange Bowl did not help his draft stock.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: Eventually the Steelers have to upgrade their offensive line so Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy and the run game regains its consistency. Iupati's strength and athleticism wowed the scouts in Mobile at the Senior Bowl.
19. Atlanta Falcons
Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida: Jamaal Anderson has not become the complementary pass rush force to DE/OLB John Abraham that the team hoped he would be, and Abraham's production dropped off last season. Dunlap's size and functional strength give him a chance to succeed in that role.
20. Houston Texans
Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State: Dunta Robinson (no relation) could be on his way out of town, and the depth behind him is severely lacking. Robinson's speed and agility endears him to secondary coaches.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: Reggie Kelly is on injured reserve (as is rookie Chase Coffman) and is a probable free agent at 32. If he passes his Combine medical checks, Gresham will add another receiving threat for Carson Palmer as well as some good edge blocking for the running game.
22. New England Patriots
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida: The Patriots can't keep re-signing Junior Seau every year ... some strength is needed in the second level of their defense.
23. Green Bay Packers
Charles Brown, OT, Southern California: LT Chad Clifton's knees won't hold out much longer, and the Packers need to protect franchise QB Aaron Rodgers. The former tight end has the athleticism to fit in immediately in Green Bay's zone-blocking scheme.
24. Philadelphia Eagles
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech: Brian Westbrook's battle with concussions could signal the end of his career. Dwyer's power and speed will complement LeSean McCoy.
25. Baltimore Ravens
Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU: Derrick Mason is 35, Mark Clayton is too inconsistent to reward with a large contract after next season and Kelly Washington might hit the street in March. LaFell's size, crisp routes and body control make him the only first round-worthy senior wideout.
26. Arizona Cardinals
Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland: The injured Mike Gandy is a free agent this offseason, so the Cardinals could take advantage of a relatively deep offensive tackle class.
27. Dallas Cowboys
Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri: Veteran Keith Brooking brought some intensity to the Cowboys defense, and Weatherspoon is a similar player with better athleticism. The former Tiger's performance in the Senior Bowl may have earned him a spot in the first round.
28. San Diego Chargers
C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: LaDainian Tomlinson is on the backside of his career and may not return, and even though Spiller has a lot of speed he should be able to carry the load more than the diminutive Darren Sproles.
29. New York Jets
Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma: The Jets are the best running team in the NFL and Williams is the most dominant run blocking offensive tackle in this class. He could fill in at guard or tackle if injuries beset the line.
30. Minnesota Vikings
Dominique Franks, CB, Oklahoma: 32 year-old Antoine Winfield is the team's only solid corner, and he's fighting injuries. Franks' toughness and athleticism puts him at the top of the crowded underclassmen corners.
31. New Orleans Saints
Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas: With Scott Fujita the team's only potential major free-agent loss in an uncapped year, the Saints may look to bolster that spot early in the draft. Kindle's freakish athleticism will grab scouts attention at the Combine.
32. Indianapolis Colts
Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State: Getting bigger on the front four should be one of the team's top priorities. Odrick's strength at the point of attack will be appreciated.
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Cards should look at taking Trent Williams in the 1st and grooming him to play RT whiie moving Levi Brown to LT. Brown can't protect Lienart's blind side and Williams was outstanding when he played on the right side of the line. OR, Cards
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I will go on record right now as saying that Tim Tebow will be a better professional QB than either Jimmy Clausen(what about his drinking problems and penchant for getting into trouble, not to mention arrogance for accomplishing nothing, with an NFL
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Any draft that puts Tebow in the top 15 loses all legitimacy in my book. His delivery is aweful and no, he doesn't play in a pro-style offense. How often do you see a QB draw in the NFL?
How can you have SD and the Colts drafting 31 and 32. The last 2 spots are for the Super Bowl teams and we sure as hell aren't going to have both of them in it.
Sure i could see the Hawks taking Mccoy but the O-line is terrible and we haven't drafted a Tackle in the top 3 rounds in a lonnnggggg time. Why would we waste a first round pick on a RB when he won't have any holes to run through.
