NFL scouts and scouting administrators are causing contrails by criss-crossing the country to watch the top prospects practice and play. And despite the heavy weight some give the Combine tests, film and viewing players "on the hoof" still rules in most draft rooms.
Projecting which underclassmen will declare for the draft is a tricky business, as a couple of highly-rated players will decide to complete their eligibility, but history tells us that they drive the early depth of every draft. Each first round since 2001 has included at least 10 underclassmen, with 15 hearing their name during in the initial stanza last year. Typically about half of the top 10 picks are underclassmen.
Predicting potential free agents is also difficult, as 2010 will be an uncapped year unless a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is approved by the league and the players' association. If no agreement is reached, fourth and fifth-year veterans will be restricted free agents and teams will have two more tags to keep their best players.
Teams are listed below from worst record to best, with opponents' winning percentage used as the initial tiebreaker for teams with the same record. The league will use this method to determine slots 1-20 next April, with playoff results and teams' record/opponents' winning percentage setting the order of spots 21-32.
2009 NFL Mock Draft - 11/20/2009
Round 1
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: Suh is simply the most dominant player in the draft, and they're not looking for a quarterback after selecting Josh Freeman in the first round last year. Chris Hovan and Ryan Sims aren't getting the job done inside and Suh and Roy Miller should be a good tandem in 2010.
2. St. Louis Rams
Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame: This Golden Domer is the second-most efficient passer in major college football with 16 touchdowns, two interceptions and 8.91 yards per attempt. Sam Bradford's injury (and slight frame) may scare teams off, and Washington's Jake Locker is being told to stay in school one more year. Marc Bulger's on the down side of his career and Kyle Boller's no long-term solution.
3. Detroit Lions
Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma: Grady Jackson is 36 and Sammie Lee Hill is unproven. The Sooners' relentless playmaker will contribute right away.
4. Cleveland Browns
Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: Despite the fact that he needs surgery on a separated right shoulder, Bradford has decided to head to the NFL. He hopes Dr. James Andrews can make him ready to throw for scouts after the Combine. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn weren't picked by coach Eric Mangini, so he'll probably want to bring in "his guy" and deal one or both of his current quarterbacks.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Eric Berry, SS, Tennessee: Another Ed Reed in the making, Berry's a playmaker and last line of defense the Chiefs will covet.
6. Oakland Raiders
Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida: Richard Seymour is scheduled to be one of the top free agents available and Greg Ellis is 34. Dunlap's combination of size and speed will be tempting to teams in the top 10.
7. Washington Redskins
Jake Locker, QB, Washington: Even though Locker is being advised to stay in school, fears of a Bradford-like injury and the dearth of top-notch senior quarterback talent may force his hand. His season under Steve Sarkisian gives him more pro-style experience than this year's top senior quarterbacks. It's hard to believe current Redskins QB Jason Campbell will be around in 2010.
8. Buffalo Bills
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: Anyone expect soon-to-turn-36 T.O. to stay in Buffalo? I didn't think so. Josh Reed is also a potential free agent. Bryant's suspension and time away from the field shouldn't have a major effect on his draft status.
9. Seattle Seahawks
Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State: LT Walter Jones' injury issues and age are catching up with him, so the Seahawks could pick a tackle here and shuffle the line to maximize the value of Sean Locklear, Max Unger and Ray Willis.
10. Tennessee Titans
Joe Haden, CB, Florida: Haden's still learning the position, but he's becoming a legitimate top 10 pick because of his toughness and speed on the outside. Nick Harper is 35, fighting through injury and a potential free agent.
11. Denver Broncos (from Chicago)
Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama: Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan's still working on getting talent for his 3-4 scheme; McClain could play any linebacker spot in any defense because of his intelligence and athleticism.
12. New York Jets
Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU: Braylon Edwards is a likely victim of an uncapped 2010, but he, Jerricho Cotchery and TE Dustin Keller could use a good foil in the slot, where LaFell has played this season. If he proves himself as a rookie, the Jets can then let Edwards leave in 2011.
13. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)
Taylor Mays, FS, Southern California: Both safety positions are in need of upgrade, so coaches would have the luxury to find the best fit for this exceptional athlete.
14. San Francisco 49ers
Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma: Williams is the most dominant run-blocking tackle in the draft, and his pass protection skills at left tackle have improved during the season. If RBs Frank Gore and Glen Coffee are more effective, the passing game will also make gains.
15. Miami Dolphins
Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech: His combination of strength and quickness off the edge make him a potential Shawne Merriman-type player if he converts to a stand-up pass rusher. Jason Taylor is 35 and a probable free agent, Joey Porter is 32 and Matt Roth is injury prone.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida: Tebow is the most difficult player to project in April's draft because of the offense in which he plays. He has the athletic ability and intelligence to handle a pro-style offense, so proving it during an all-star game or postseason workout will be crucial. One thing's for sure: the Jacksonville-area native would put much-needed fannies in the seats.
17. Green Bay Packers
Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia: Al Harris is 34, Charles Woodson 33 and depth is lacking behind them. Dowling's size and receiver-like hands are impressive.
18. Philadelphia Eagles
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech: LeSean McCoy is a good back, but would be even better with a tough runner and solid receiver like Dwyer splitting the load.
19. New York Giants
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida: Ten-year veteran starter Danny Clark may become a free agent, and the Giants like to keep their front seven stacked with talent. Spikes' ability to pressure the quarterback inside would alleviate pressure from the team's star defensive ends.
20. Houston Texans
Evan Royster, RB, Penn State: Bringing in a stronger back to complement Steve Slaton beefs up the Texans' running attack and helps QB Matt Schaub get more play-action opportunities.
21. Atlanta Falcons
Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forest: Trading for first-round bust Tye Hill was a good indication of how Atlanta feels about its group of cornerbacks. Ghee has the size, physicality and ball skills to succeed on an island.
22. Baltimore Ravens
Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame: If Jimmy Clausen leaves early for the NFL, look for Tate to follow suit. Derrick Mason is 35, Mark Clayton is too inconsistent to reward with a large contract after next season and Kelly Washington might hit the street in March.
23. Dallas Cowboys
Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan: DeMarcus Ware signed a contract extension, but Anthony Spencer hasn't been the consistent pass-rush threat the team needs to free up Ware. Like Spencer, Graham will be a former Big 10 strong-side defensive end standing up in the 3-4.
24. San Diego Chargers
Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers: Upgrading the right tackle spot could help LaDainian Tomlinson lengthen his career. Davis has the size and strength to make that switch, much like Michael Oher did for Baltimore this year.
25. New England Patriots
Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State: The Patriots' defense isn't the same without Richard Seymour manning one of the end spots in the three-man line. Odrick's not quite in this class, but has potential to be a very good 3-4 end.
26. Arizona Cardinals
Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: Improving the interior offensive line keeps QB Kurt Warner, who will turn 39 during the offseason, upright and opens more holes for last April's first-round choice, RB Beanie Wells.
27. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: The Hawks desire a game-breaker at the running back position, and Spiller fits that bill. He could also return kicks and punts for a Seattle team struggling to make big plays on special teams.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Corey Wootton, DE, Northwestern: Selecting DE Ziggy Hood with the last pick of the first round last year helped strengthen the front line, but 33 year-old Aaron Smith is now on IR and 35 year-old Travis Kirschke has been dinged up as well.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: Injuries to Ben Utecht and Reggie Kelly (who is a probable free agent at 32) put the passing game in a bit of a bind. If he passes his Combine medical checks, Gresham will add another receiving threat for Carson Palmer as well as some good edge blocking for the running game.
30. Minnesota Vikings
Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State: 32 year-old Antoine Winfield is the team's only solid corner; Robinson has the speed to be an excellent cover corner.
31. New Orleans Saints
Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State: With Scott Fujita the team's only potential major free-agent loss in an uncapped year, the Saints may look to bolster that spot early in the draft. Bowman's strength and coverage skills will allow him to excel as a strong-side 'backer.
32. Indianapolis Colts
Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri: Weatherspoon isn't the biggest linebacker in this draft, but fits the Colts' defense well enough to play inside if veteran Gary Brackett does not return or challenge Phillip Wheeler for starting spot outside.
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Bryan Bulaga will be a first round pick. Just not this year. I seriously doubt he comes out after this season. Clearly, the thyroid condition that kept him out of the lineup for a few weeks earlier this year has slowed his development. Nine weeks into the 2009 season and he is still not playing at the level he was at the end of 2008. I know money talks. And I kn
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I disagree with both Reutter and Rang for two reasons.
1. Terrance Cody does not have the conditioning to play in the NFL, he is way out of shape. Watch 'Bama play a few times already and he gets winded too quickly, this is not a Mike Tomlin Player.
2. Brandon Ghee would be a smart pick, personally I like Ras-I Dowling, but only because William Gay is an average NFL CB. I
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Sadly, Seattle's season has come to groveling about a mock draft. So be it. I do not see another team interested in McCoy below Seattle's initial pick. I would be very surprised if Seattle took McCoy; especially in the top 15. The Dwyer pick is just piling on, especially with Charles brown there. Brown brings more value to Seattle and is a need as well. Why woul
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Sure i could see the Hawks taking Mccoy but the O-line is terrible and we haven't drafted a Tackle in the top 3 rounds in a lonnnggggg time. Why would we waste a first round pick on a RB when he won't have any holes to run through.
