While it might appear early to forecast the 2010 first round, with the collegiate season winding down NFL scouts are already sizing up the prospective talent to fill the cracks developing on NFL rosters.
Their focus is, of course, on the senior prospects, but with nearly half (15) of last year's first-round selections being underclassmen, scouts can't afford to ignore the elite juniors and even redshirt sophomore prospects on the horizon. That is especially true at positions lacking senior talent, such as quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle and cornerback. A few noteworthy juniors could make an already strong defensive line class special.
Teams are listed from the current worst record to best, with opponents' winning percentage used as the initial tiebreaker for teams with the same record. The league will use this method to determine slots 1-20 next April, with playoff results and teams' record/opponents' winning percentage setting the order of spots 21-32.
2009 NFL Mock Draft - 11/20/2009
Round 1
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: Coach Raheem Morris has built an offense around running the ball. To improve defensively, the Bucs will need to stop it. Suh is the country's best player and likeliest to make an immediate impact, making him the most deserving and logical prospect to go first.
2. St. Louis Rams
Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma: With former No. 2 overall pick Chris Long struggling, the Rams might be hesitant to invest millions in another defensive lineman. Until a quarterback establishes himself as the unquestioned elite prospect, however, St. Louis would be wise to help defensive-minded coach Steve Spagnuolo build his type of team. McCoy considered leaving school last year and would have been 2009's first defensive tackle selected had he done so.
3. Detroit Lions
Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida: The offensively-inept Redskins and Rams are the only opponents the Lions have been able to keep under 26 points so far this season. GM Martin Mayhew and coach Jim Schwartz will devote at least one of Detroit's picks in 2010 toward renovating an undersized defensive line. Dunlap offers a Julius Peppers-like combination of size and athleticism that may be too tempting to ignore - especially for a defensive needing more of both.
4. Cleveland Browns
Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame: The firing of GM George Kokinis proves what Cleveland fans have know for quite some time: that the Browns are essentially starting from scratch ... again. If the current (or new) coaching staff feels the same, a new quarterback might be coming ... again. Clausen lacks the physical tools offered by Jake Locker or Sam Bradford, but scouts believe he is the most NFL-ready quarterback in the country. And the Browns need immediate help ... again.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Eric Berry, SS, Tennessee: Scott Pioli wouldn't normally invest this high of a pick on a safety. Then again, Berry isn't just another safety. Few players have dominated the SEC with the consistency that Berry has shown throughout his young career. He won't be as impressive in workouts as Taylor Mays, but is the better all-around player and a good fit for a defense desperate for playmakers.
6. Oakland Raiders
Taylor Mays, FS, Southern California: Considering Al Davis' fascination with size/speed freaks, is there any doubt that the local product will be the pick if available?
7. Washington Redskins
Jake Locker, QB, Washington: Regardless of who the head coach is next season, the starting quarterback will not be Jason Campbell. Those who have studied Locker know he has unrivaled tools that warrant Top 10 consideration, but to actually be picked this high he'll need to finish the season - something he hasn't yet been able to do in three years as the Huskies' starting quarterback. Another season under Steve Sarkisian and Locker could enter the 2011 draft as the favorite to go No. 1.
8. Buffalo Bills
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: The signing of free agent Terrell Owens proved the Bills' willingness to gamble on great athletes with off-field concerns. Owens, 35, is a pending unrestricted free agent, as is Josh Reed. Whether the Bills are led by Trent Edwards in the future or another passer, he'll need weapons. Bryant has earned comparisons to Randy Moss by some veteran scouts I've spoken with for his ability to leap over defenders and snatch the ball.
9. Seattle Seahawks
Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State: With talented quarterbacks still on the board, the Seahawks may look to the future. Matt Hasselbeck, however, has quietly played exceptionally well when protected up front. Rather than push the 34-year-old out the door with a young passer with this pick, the Seahawks would be tempted to simply add some stability up front in the steady, if unspectacular, Okung.
10. Tennessee Titans
Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech: If Vince Young can continue to string together victories over the second half of the season, the Titans will be able to focus on areas other than quarterback. Defensive line, long a strength in Tennessee, has become a relative weakness. Morgan, only a junior, is flying up draft boards with his stellar play this season and would be an excellent first step in the youth movement needed with unrestricted free agency looming for veterans Kyle Vanden Bosch, Jevon Kearse and Dave Ball.
11. Denver Broncos (from Chicago)
Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: Hailed as a savior after leading the Broncos to a surprising 6-0 start, Kyle Orton struggled in two consecutive losses and was injured at Washington. Denver's three consecutive losses are prompting some concerns about the position's long-term future. The Broncos would be wise to add a fallback option in case Orton's struggles continue. Bradford, assuming his recovery from shoulder surgery goes well, will make himself available to the 2010 draft. When healthy and protected, he has shown the accuracy of an All-Pro.
12. New York Jets
Corey Wootton, DE, Northwestern: For all of Rex Ryan's bravado, the Jets are averaging less than two sacks a game. Ryan has shown a willingness to gamble on athleticism, generating production from troubled but talented stars like Kris Jenkins and Braylon Edwards. Wootton's rare size and physicality are a perfect fit at defensive end in Ryan's 3-4 scheme.
13. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)
Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma: Williams has struggled a bit in his first season at left tackle for the Sooners, but scouts appreciate his tools. The 49ers have struggled up front and could pair Williams with Joe Staley to provide a bookend tackles for whomever they feature at quarterback in the future.
14. San Francisco 49ers
Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson: The 49ers are still waiting for 2005 first-round pick Manny Lawson (8.0 sacks in 40 career games) to pan out. Sapp is an athletic phenom who has struggled with injuries throughout his career, but is enjoying a breakout campaign as a senior. Alternating between defensive end and linebacker for the Tigers, scouts know Sapp can move in space - making his transition to a pass-rushing OLB in this scheme a relatively easy one.
15. Miami Dolphins
Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama: Bill Parcells has proven his willingness to invest high draft picks on athletic front seven defenders. Sapp is an athletic phenom who has struggled with injuries throughout his career, but is enjoying a breakout campaign as a senior. Alternating between defensive end and linebacker for the Tigers, scouts know Sapp can move in space - making his transition to a pass-rushing OLB in this scheme a relatively easy one.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida: Tebow doesn't have the skill set to strike the fancy of every NFL team. With a built-in fan-base and an owner who has already publicly endorsed him, the Jaguars are a likely landing place. Only a return to consistency by David Garrard or a playoff appearance may allow the Jaguars to look elsewhere with this pick. Should the hometown Jags not take Tebow here, however, a Brady Quinn-like fall (or worse) could await Tebow on draft-day.
17. Green Bay Packers
Charles Brown, CB, North Carolina: Chad Clifton continues to be plagued with knee problems and the team can't afford to risk injury to Aaron Rodgers with a patchwork offensive line. Brown, a former tight end, has shown greatly improved strength and tenacity as a run blocker in his second season as the Trojans' starting left tackle and is flying up draft boards.
18. Philadelphia Eagles
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida: It didn't take long for Will Witherspoon to make his presence felt for the Eagles, but despite his experience in the middle the former Ram is best suited in coverage and not taking on blockers. Spikes, on the other hand, is as physical as they come and a perfect fit for an Eagle defense needing a plugger. He's expected to run slowly in workouts, which will drop him further than he should.
19. New York Giants
Brian Price, DT, UCLA: Few teams focus on the defensive line like the Giants and with veterans Barry Cofield and Fred Robbins facing potential free agency, New York may again look to add depth. Price, a three-year starter for the Bruins despite being only a junior, could add to an already strong class.
20. Houston Texans
Joe Haden, CB, Florida: The Texans might be hamstrung with this pick due to the ongoing testy relationship with CB Dunta Robinson. Inconsistent play from Robinson thus far this season has made it obvious that the Texans' pass defense, even with Robinson in the fold, has holes. Adding Haden, a natural playmaker, would give the team flexibility in its negotiations.
21. Atlanta Falcons
Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: With established skill position players in Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, the Falcons would be wise to invest in a front line that can protect them. Iupati may hail from a surprisingly small school, but that is all that is small about him. Much more athletic than you'd expect for a man his size, Iupati has quietly emerged as one of the draft's top offensive linemen.
22. Baltimore Ravens
Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU: Slow times and too many drops this season could cause LaFell to slip on draft day, but his rare combination of size and speed deserves a spot in the first round. Joe Flacco has talent, but if he is build on it, he'll need help at receiver.
23. Dallas Cowboys
Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers: The Cowboys' depth along the o-line will be will be severely tested with the loss of RT Marc Colombo to a broken leg. With Flozell Adams continuing to struggle with consistency on the left side, the Cowboys would be wise to add the talented Davis here.
24. San Diego Chargers
C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: LaDainian Tomlinson is clearly on the downside of his career. The diminutive Darren Sproles could parlay another season of big plays into millions as an impending free agent. Should the Chargers elect to re-sign him, they can focus in another direction with this pick. Otherwise, the versatile Spiller could provide potentially even better production at a lesser price.
25. New England Patriots
Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee: Vols DE Robert Ayers successfully rode a monster senior campaign into a first-round selection by the Denver Broncos last April. Brown has enjoyed an even more impressive campaign in Knoxville this year. His size and upside could give the Patriots options with impending free agent Vince Wilfork.
26. Arizona Cardinals
Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan: The Cardinals invested a second-round pick last April in pass rusher Cody Brown, but a torn ACL robbed him of his rookie season. Rather than bank on a return to health or on 30-something free agents Chike Okeafor and Bertrand Berry, the Cardinals might look to Graham, a virtual clone of Steelers standout LaMarr Woodley.
27. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas: Hasselbeck remains Seattle's best offensive player and the heart and soul of the franchise. Two consecutive down years after dominating the NFC West four consecutive seasons, however, proves that this is a roster greatly in need of a youth movement, including at the game's most important position. McCoy's short-to-intermediate accuracy and mobility make him a perfect fit in a Greg Knapp offense intended to be built more around the run than the pass.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forest: A dynamic pass rush and the hair-raising play of Ss Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark has allowed the Steelers to get away with marginal play from their cornerbacks. A physical tone-setter in the defensive backfield ala former Steeler Bryant McFadden, Ghee is moving up boards.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech: The Bengals have been fortunate with the play of the rejuvenated Cedric Benson and may find similar production with Larry Johnson. Rather than rely on them long-term, however, the Bengals could tab Dwyer, a powerful one-cut back who could flourish in this system.
30. Minnesota Vikings
Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State: The Vikings' dominant defensive line has arguably been every bit as elemental in Minnesota's 7-1 start to the season as their star-studded offense. 37-year old Pat Williams isn't going to last forever, however, and free agency is looming for backup DTs Fred Evans and Jimmy Kennedy, as well as underrated left end Ray Edwards. Blending size, versatility and technique, Odrick could infuse some youth into a unit needing it.
31. New Orleans Saints
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: Another surprise pick to make sure you're still awake on a mock draft written in October. These aren't the Same Old Saints. This team is playing defense and won't hesitate to look toward improving the weapons around Drew Brees to make him even more dangerous. Had a shoulder injury not ruined his senior campaign, Gresham might have been a top 10 pick. With the injury, he could slide where an aggressive team like the Saints could capitalize.
32. Indianapolis Colts
Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State: Like the Saints, the Colts have often elected to draft for offense in the first round despite their defense needing repair. With CB Marlin Jackson out for the year and a potential free agent along with Tim Jennings, the Colts would be wise to add depth.
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I will laugh hard if Seattle truly does buy into either Taylor Mays or Eric Berry. Neither show good tackling technique. At least Berry can cover. Taylor Mays has had a nondescript 4 year career at SC, and he will do likewise at the pro level. Of course, one would not be surprised if Seattle drafted Mays; he has all the prerequisites: 1) hyped 4 year player out of a bi
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