Drafting underclassman vs. senior? Debunking myths

The inclusion of underclassmen in the NFL Draft has drastically changed the landscape of the event. This year, between 12 and 15 are expected to be selected in the first round alone.

But despite the relative youth of the talented sophomores and juniors moving ahead of fourth- or fifth-year seniors on draft boards, there has been very little difference in initial playing time for the two groups.

Chris Johnson rode his four years in college to rookie stardom with the Titans. (Getty Images)

Since 1991, rookie seniors selected in the first round played 13.5 games on average, with 8.1 starts. In that same time, underclassmen more than held their own in those categories with 12.9 games played and eight starts.

Underclassmen have also been more than three times as likely as seniors to make a Pro Bowl in their rookie year, although only about one or two get the call each year and two former college seniors flew to Hawaii last year -- Titans running back Chris Johnson and Dolphins left tackle Jake Long.

On one level, these numbers make sense because first-round underclassmen generally have more raw talent than their senior counterparts, many of whom would have left for the NFL after their junior year if they received a high enough grade from the league's advisory committee.

Also, there is not necessarily as large a difference in experience between juniors and seniors as one might expect. Top underclassmen were often major contributors as true freshmen, whereas seniors who chose to play all four years sat behind upperclassmen in their freshman or redshirt freshman season.

For example, two of the three juniors in the running for top 20 picks this season actually started more games -- quarterbacks Matthew Stafford (Georgia) with 34 and Josh Freeman (Kansas State) with 35 -- than 2008 top quarterback Matt Ryan (32) did in four years at Boston College. Southern Cal's Mark Sanchez started about half as many games (16) as Stafford and Freeman, however, so his lack of experience is certainly worth considering.

And some underclassmen come out early because they're advanced in age. Defensive end/outside linebacker Paul Kruger (Utah, 23 years old) and tight end James Casey (Rice, turns 25 in September) played only two years of college football but are older than typical redshirt sophomores because of a two-year Mormon mission and minor league baseball career.

Younger sophomores -- wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (Missouri) and running backs LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh) and Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) -- lack some football and life experience, but their talent is irrefutable so it is difficult to knock their decisions to start their professional career a year or two early.

After the first wave

Sometimes young players with first-round talent will fall into the second or third round, partially due to their lack of experience. They get the last laugh in the end, however, because underclassmen in the second through fifth rounds actually outperform seniors in average games played, games started and Pro Bowl appearances in their rookie year.

A few seniors selected in the sixth and seventh rounds (including former Denver Bronco running backs Mike Anderson and Terrell Davis) turn the tide late in the draft, although the odds of finding starters and the statistical differences between the two groups are negligible.

This trend is also intuitive because those disappointed juniors falling into the second or third round might possibly have been first- or second-round picks if they had stayed in school -- although there is no guarantee of that occurring.

Many players would not crack the top 32 whether or not they had stayed in school because scouts would always have concerns about their character, pro position or lack of speed or size.

Even rookie Pro Bowl players such as Seahawks middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu (size/speed), Cardinals wide receiver Anquan Boldin (speed) and Bears wide receiver/return man Devin Hester (lack of position) may have been second-round picks no matter when they entered the draft. Any year's group of underclassmen or specific team needs could also unexpectedly bump a fourth-year player down the draft board.

For example, the chances of current senior prospects such as Virginia linebacker Clint Sintim, Northern Illinois defensive end/linebacker Larry English being first-round picks have been undermined by underclassmen end/linebacker prospects Everette Brown (Florida State) and Aaron Maybin (Penn State). Cincinnati's senior end/linebacker Connor Barwin also charged up boards this year, which could not have been predicted before last season because he switched from tight end to defensive end in the spring.

Because there are so many more seniors picked in every round after the first, comparisons between the overall success of the two groups can be misleading. But this data provides no evidence of the supposedly more experienced senior players making a more immediate impact than their underclassmen counterparts.

Slow starters

The low average numbers of starts, or even games played, for players of any age selected outside the second round tells fans they should not expect great things from the team's draft picks out of the gate.

Last season, only 32 rookies (12.7 percent) started at least eight games and only four came from outside the top three rounds. Nine were among the 31 underclassmen (29 percent) selected in the top 99 last April, outpacing the percentage of senior starters (23 percent) picked before round four.

Looking down the road, underclassmen also play in and start more games, and appear in Pro Bowls more often than seniors in the second through fourth seasons of their career:

The fact that only 347 underclassmen were picked in the top three rounds of the past 18 drafts, as opposed to 1,433 seniors, must be noted. But clearly the younger players are more than able to hold their own in year one and beyond.

No quarter

Southern Cal coach Pete Carroll attempted to keep Sanchez in school by showing the lack of success for quarterbacks leaving early for the NFL. But looking at the success of junior quarterbacks without also examining that of top seniors is incomplete, if not deceptive.

Senior quarterback prospects from 1991-2008 averaged 40 games played and 35.5 starts in their first four seasons, compared to 39 and 32 for underclassmen. That's not a significant difference. A higher percentage of underclassmen quarterbacks also reached the Pro Bowl in their first four years (38 percent versus 25 percent for seniors).

And although skill position players lag behind linemen and back seven defenders in early-career success, underclassmen at quarterback, running back and receiver still perform just as well as seniors at those positions.

Offensive playmakers drafted in the top two rounds from 1991-2008 averaged 5.5 starts in their rookie year as compared to about 6.8 for players at all other positions. Underclassmen quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers averaged 6.1 starts their first season, while seniors managed only 5.2 starts. This trend also applies to average start numbers for all other players (7.8 for underclassmen, 6.5 for seniors).

For every senior success story like Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer, there is a Byron Leftwich and Kyle Boller with disappointing careers despite having stayed in school. And although the 49ers' Alex Smith has not lived up to No. 1 overall pick expectations, fellow underclassman Ben Roethlisberger has already won two Super Bowls for Pittsburgh and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers appears to be headed toward a solid career.

It's a bit early to judge the relative success of underclassmen like Rodgers, Oakland's JaMarcus Russell and Tennessee's Vince Young against seniors such as Arizona's Matt Leinart and Cleveland's Brady Quinn. It's possible all or none of them will turn out to be long-time starting NFL quarterbacks.

But given the anecdotal and statistical evidence, it is clear that an individual's mental and physical makeup has a lot more to do with NFL success than how many seasons he played college football.

Chad Reuter is a Senior Analyst for NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange.