Teams with seeds of doubt can't see forest for the Crabtree

Judge mock: Crabtree fourth | Prisco mock: 10th

I just saw one mock draft that had Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree going at the seventh pick to Oakland, which is fine except Michael Crabtree is not the seventh-best player in this year's draft. He might be the second, and he's no worse than the third.

Of course, that doesn't mean he won't drop down the board. Adrian Peterson was one of the top three players in the 2007 draft, and he lasted until the seventh spot. What it does mean is that Crabtree should not drop, with Peterson the textbook example why.

Crabtree has a knack for making tremendous plays. (Getty Images)

Like Peterson, there are injury concerns about Crabtree -- except this is a stress fracture in his foot that Crabtree said he played with and didn't consider a big deal until doctors at the February scouting combine got hold of him. So he underwent surgery, scratched his Pro Day and, basically, said, "I'll let my work speak for itself."

And his work makes him a top three choice -- just as Peterson's did.

The problem, of course, is that when you draft in the top five you want to make sure you don't make a mistake, and injuries -- or the threat of injuries -- scare off potential suitors. Peterson was on Cleveland's radar in 2007 until the Browns discovered he reinjured his collarbone in the Fiesta Bowl. So they passed with the third pick and chose tackle Joe Thomas instead. Fortunately for the Browns, the move worked out.

But it worked out better for Minnesota, which rode Peterson to the playoffs last year. All the second-year back did was lead the league in rushing, average 4.8 yards a carry, produce 10 touchdowns and carry the Vikings on his back. I know wide receivers seldom have that impact -- particularly rookie wide receivers -- but I'd sure hate to be the club that passed on the next Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald.

"Michael Crabtree," said one pro scout, "is a big, strong guy who can play. Plus, he's a good kid. He's had a lot of exposure in a passing offense, and he's a strong-handed guy who plays as fast as he times. He's not going to run away from you, but he has exceptional quickness. He's a big-time player who will make a good pro."

Notice there wasn't anything in there about Crabtree as a risk. That's because it wasn't mentioned. In fact, when I brought up his injury and his size (he's 6-feet-1/2;, not 6-3) the scout scoffed at the idea, saying neither was a concern. Bottom line, he told me, this is the best wide receiver out there and one of the top prospects at his position in years.

"So then buyers shouldn't beware?" I asked.

"Absolutely not," he said.

So let's see where he goes. You can scratch Detroit at the first spot because the Lions exceeded the statute of limitations on first-round wide receivers and need a quarterback/offensive lineman more. He probably doesn't go to St. Louis at No. 2 because the Rams must straighten out an offensive line with more holes than the Garden State Parkway, and there are two top-shelf tackles out there.

I can't see Kansas City making a play for him at the third position, either, because wide receiver isn't an urgent need. That takes me to Seattle, and if Michael Crabtree is there, coach Jim Mora has a decision to make: Draft for need or draft the best player on the board.

If it's the best player, Crabtree gets the call.

Yeah, I know the Seahawks signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but so what? He catches a lot of balls, but he's not a big-play threat. Crabtree is, scoring 41 touchdowns in two seasons at Texas Tech, with 231 catches and 15 100-yard games. He caught 15 passes in one start, 14 in another and never had fewer than four receptions in any game. He had a string of 13 straight contests with at least one touchdown and set the NCAA freshman record for scoring catches in a season. He won the Bilentikoff and Warfield awards. Twice. He was named all to the Big-12 and All-America teams.

In short, he was the best receiver out there.

But he has a stress fracture that has some scouts questioning his durability, and, I'm sorry, I'm out of that club. I heard the same conversation last year about Oregon running back Jonathan Stewart, and the Carolina Panthers weren't fazed. They took him with the 13th pick, and Stewart didn't miss a game. More important, he set team rookie records for rushing and touchdowns.

I heard it with Peterson, too. And I heard it in 2001 with defensive tackle Shaun Rogers, whose stock plunged when he underwent ankle surgery before the combine. Only two teams weren't scared off -- Detroit and Baltimore -- and the Lions got to him at the bottom of the second round before Baltimore could. Rogers didn't miss a start that season and led all defensive linemen in tackles.

I guess what I'm saying is not to dissect this guy too carefully -- or, as Paul Zimmerman of Sports Illustrated used to put it, don't get caught in paralysis by analysis. There's a reason Crabtree was named the country's best receiver the past two seasons, and don't let an X-ray confuse you. Crabtree is the real deal, much like Larry Fitzgerald was the real deal in 2004. The Arizona Cardinals took him with the third pick and were ripped for their decision. Yeah, well, look who's laughing now.

If you're going to pass on Crabtree it better be for a good reason.