(Editor's note: NFLDraftScout.com senior analysts Rob Rang and Chad Reuter make their bold draft predictions for the opening two rounds).
We can now count down the time to the 2009 NFL Draft in hours. And after months of all-star games, the scouting combine, pro days and private workouts, players are still sliding up and down as teams put together their final draft boards.
Who's making a late charge or a late slide? What trend can you expect to see unfold Saturday?
Rang's five predictions
Offensive tackles rule Top 10
A record eight offensive tackles were selected in the first round last year, including No. 1 overall pick Jake Long. While this year's class won't match that number, I believe four tackles will go within the top 10 picks, and that hasn't happened since 1985.
Baylor's Jason Smith is a Ryan Clady clone likely to be taken by St. Louis with the second pick. Surprisingly, I'm hearing the other "lock" to make the top 10 from the position is Alabama's Andre Smith, not Virginia's Eugene Monroe or Mississippi's Michael Oher. In a draft class as tight as this one, the concerns some teams have with Monroe's knees could push him out of the top five, but shouldn't drop him much further.
Oher has the size and athletic ability to be a standout left tackle, though some have concerns about his consistency. Given the value and relative safety of taking offensive tackles in the first round, the position could once again be the story of the 2009 draft.
Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry will not be the first defensive player drafted
Considered by many to be the draft's safest player, most believe Aaron Curry will be the first defensive player selected Saturday. Most are wrong.
Curry is the epitome of athleticism and character and fits into every defensive scheme in the game, but at 6-feet-2 and 254 pounds, he'd fit best in the 3-4 defense at inside linebacker -- the least valued position among the front seven. The earliest Curry is going to get drafted is fourth to the Seattle Seahawks. If the Seahawks go another route with the fourth pick, some believe Curry could slip out of the top 10.
The defensive player flying up draft boards right now is LSU defensive end Tyson Jackson. He's not an explosive pass rusher, but has the bulk at 6-4, 295 pounds and scheme versatility to line up in both the 3-4 and 4-3. Considering the Chiefs' lack of a second-round pick due to the trade for quarterback Matt Cassel, don't be surprised if GM Scott Pioli adds Jackson, a virtual Ty Warren clone, with the third pick of the draft.
From Cleveland to New York
Despite having recently invested first-round picks at the positions, the Cleveland Browns are reportedly going to draft Southern California quarterback Mark Sanchez or Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree with the fifth pick.
Sources within the league have told me the Browns are actively shopping quarterbacks Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson and wide receiver Braylon Edwards, and will trade at least one based on which rookie player is selected in the first round. Some have suggested that if the Browns draft Sanchez, Quinn could be headed to Denver.
My sources believe instead that Cleveland will trade Quinn to a team Eric Mangini knows quite well -- the New York Jets. Should the Browns draft Crabtree, the long-rumored Edwards deal to the New York Giants will occur instead.
Josh Freeman won't make it to the Jets at No. 17
Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman is pegged by mock drafts across the Internet to be going to the Jets with the 17th pick. It isn't difficult to understand why. Freeman has legitimate talent.
Rex Ryan, like many new coaches, would love to make a splash on draft day. Ryan comes from Baltimore, which received great play from rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, likely making Ryan more comfortable with the idea of starting a first-year passer than most.
And the Jets, who feature Kellen Clemens, Brett Ratliff and Erik Ainge, are in clear need of more talent at the position. Of the three, only Clemens has thrown an NFL regular-season pass, and he has a less than inspiring 5-to-11 career touchdown-to-interception ratio.
For all of these reasons the Jets will almost certainly want to take Freeman, which is why he won't be available to them. The drop in talent after Matt Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman is so steep that any team wanting Freeman knows it will have to pick him ahead of the Jets. The 49ers (picking 10th), Broncos (12th) and Redskins (13th) are all possibilities to take the rifle-armed junior. If they pass there's a strong possibility another team trades to jump ahead of the Jets.
Expect plenty of trades, but none within top 10
Few moments on draft day are more eagerly anticipated and generate instant intrigue than when Commissioner Roger Goodell utters the famous phrase, "There has been a trade." The commissioner would be wise to memorize the list of teams drafting within the top 10, however, as the general parity of talent and disproportionate contracts required for the players drafted this high will restrict teams from trading picks early.
Expect several trades throughout the second half of the first round, especially over the final 10 picks, when it isn't as expensive, both in terms of the trade value chart and player contracts.
Reuter's five
Oakland selects Darrius Heyward-Bey at No. 7
Jeremy Maclin is the consensus mock draft choice for the Raiders, if they pick a receiver, because he is the explosive receiver owner Al Davis covets.
However, Darrius Heyward-Bey's superior size, 40 times and ability to fight for the ball in the air will make him the pick. DHB's inconsistent hands are a concern, but Maclin's limited route-running in Missouri's offense is also a concern for scouts who wonder if he will ever be more than a special-teams contributor.
Chris "Beanie" Wells will be a top 10 pick
The top running back on teams' boards has been a top 10 pick in 11 of the past 15 drafts. Three of the exceptions: Warrick Dunn (undersized), William Green (character issues) and Willis MaGahee (major knee injury). The fourth, former Oregon State back Steven Jackson, is actually a similar prospect to Beanie Wells. Jackson's draft position (No. 24 in 2004 to St. Louis) and productive but injury-troubled NFL career may portend doom for this prediction.
However, Wells' combination of size, strength and vision make him a Jamal Lewis-type Pro Bowl back. And despite his relatively slow 40-yard dash time at the combine (4.52 seconds), he is not caught from behind very often.
Seattle, Cleveland and Cincinnati at picks 4-6 worked out Wells and are seriously considering selecting him. If he slides by them, then Jacksonville, Green Bay or San Francisco might pick him to build depth in their backfields despite having greater immediate needs that they could address with their early second- or third-round picks.
Percy Harvin will not be a first-round pick
Last year, DeSean Jackson was considered a mid-to-late first-round pick, but concerns about his size and attitude dropped him to No. 50 overall. Percy Harvin has similar issues, plus some teams consider him a running back playing receiver.
At his pro day, however, Harvin showed glimpses of how explosive he could be as a slot receiver. He could easily make teams pay as a rookie receiver/returner for passing him up -- just as Jackson did in 2008.
Michael Johnson will be picked at the end of the first round
There's no way Michael Johnson has proven himself a first-round pick according to his play on the field. But as an athlete, he's a top 10 talent. And NFL coaches like Tom Coughlin (Giants, No. 29), Jeff Fisher (Tennessee, No. 30) and Ken Whisenhunt (Arizona, No. 31) believe they can get the most out of players like Johnson.
The Giants already picked a less athletic version of Johnson in Mathias Kiwanuka a couple of years ago, and would find a place to play Johnson whether at end or linebacker, especially if the receiver they want isn't available.
Tennessee could also use some pass rush help on the edge, while Arizona's 3-4 hybrid defense could take advantage of Johnson's length and closing speed. The Cardinals could play him at end in some situations and drop him into coverage to affect passing lanes on others.
Pat White will be selected in the top 50
Pat White's selection by New England makes a lot of sense. He's the perfect Wildcat formation quarterback and potentially strong and quick enough to be an effective slot receiver. However, former Patriot and current Bronco coach Josh McDaniels also worked out White this spring as a receiver. It will not be a surprise if the Broncos give up a late pick to move ahead of the Patriots' No. 47 pick to get the versatile White.
Rob Rang and Chad Reuter are Senior Analysts for NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange.
