Beware, Josh Freeman: Live sliding can leave bruises

There are nine players scheduled to attend this weekend's NFL Draft in New York City, including Matthew Stafford, Jason Smith, Aaron Curry, Michael Crabtree and Josh Freeman.

Wait a minute. Rewind the videotape. Josh Freeman? Put the Green Room on alert. We may have a sleeper ... and I mean that literally.

If there were ever a candidate for late delivery in this year's first round it's the Kansas State quarterback. Every other year, it seems, someone -- er, some quarterback -- sits for hours backstage at Radio City Music Hall waiting for his name to be called. Two years ago it was Brady Quinn. Two years before that, Aaron Rodgers. This year it could be Freeman.

That's not a knock on the guy. It's a conclusion based on the NFL's list of invitees. Look who's in there with him: Stafford, Smith, Eugene Monroe, Crabtree, Curry, Brian Orakpo, Brian Cushing and Michael Oher. Now tell me, other than Oher, who could fall deep into the second half of the first round. Cushing? Maybe. Not likely. Orakpo? Nope. Crabtree? Are you kidding?

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The way I see it, Freeman and Oher will be the last names called, with Oher more likely to draw the first "Get Out of Jail" card. I say that because I surveyed some scouts and coaches I trust, and when Freeman's name comes up it's no higher than the lower third of the first round ... if that.

I know, some people think he could go to the Jets at the 17th position, but Mark Sanchez is the quarterback they want, not Freeman. I had Freeman tabbed for Tampa Bay at 19 in last week's mock draft, but I'll be honest: I have no conviction about the choice. Especially now.

So let's say he gets past the Bucs. Then what? If the Lions take Stafford, you can scratch Detroit at 20. And Philadelphia at 21. And Minnesota at 22. And New England and Atlanta. Miami took Chad Henne a year ago, so forget the Dolphins. Scratch Baltimore at 26. Indianapolis needs starting defensive tackles more than it does backup quarterbacks, so the Colts are out at 27. So is Buffalo at 28. And the Giants.

I think you get the idea. It's called gravity. Josh Freeman could be Thurman Thomas looking for a parachute. No, I don't think so, either, but I'm just saying he might be in a tough spot -- namely, the last seat in the Green Room. It's uncomfortable, awkward and humiliating, and the wait is as painful as it is slow.

I was there when commissioner Roger Goodell mercifully offered Quinn a seat out of camera range and when Rodgers -- once a consideration with the first pick of the 2005 draft -- was rescued by Green Bay with the 24th choice. He was relieved to be freed, promising never to forget those (OK, San Francisco) who passed on him.

"There are three quarterbacks that matter in this year's draft," one quarterbacks coach told me, "and Josh Freeman is one of them. But he's the third guy, and he's not a first-rounder. He has the arm and the size, but there's something missing. People think he'll be this year's Joe Flacco, but I can't see it. He's unpolished and will need some work.

"But he looks like what a first-round quarterback is supposed to look like. So at least when you take him the bean counters can feel good about it. The problem is: He doesn't play like the other two quarterbacks (Stafford and Sanchez). He's not that polished, and the other two are.

"I just get the feeling he's far, far away from being a quarterback. Nevertheless, if he gets by Tampa Bay, somebody will trade up to get him at the end of the first round because the other two guys are off the board and because there is no one else (of consequence) at the position."

It's not the other two I'm worried about. It's Freeman. If he makes it past the Bucs at the 19th spot, I can see him sliding into the second round. I'm not saying it happens; I'm just saying it could. Which is why I wonder what he's doing in New York.

Jeremy Maclin won't make the trip. Neither will Ty Jackson. Or B.J. Raji, Malcolm Jenkins or Andre Smith. And Mark Sanchez declined after he was invited. All are likely to go ahead of Freeman. Yet they'll stay home, while Freeman will be in front of millions of TV viewers. I just hope he knows what he's in for.

I don't blame the guy for wanting to take advantage of a free weekend in New York City. I'd be interested, too. But it might come at a price. Here's hoping Josh Freeman doesn't find out what it is.