Haden doesn't help, hurt draft stock much with pro day 40
Florida cornerback Joe Haden was clocked in the 4.45 to 4.48 range in the 40-yard dash Wednesday, scouts at Florida's pro day told NFLDraftScout.com. That came after saying last week that his goal was to post a number in the 4.3s.
Haden's 40 time was the second-most watched event at Florida's pro day behind quarterback Tim Tebow's throwing motion. After posting a best clocked time of 4.52 seconds at the scouting combine, Haden's draft stock took a significant hit, with most draft analysts moving him down several spots in the first round.
Some may believe Wednesday's improved number is automatically a ticket back into the top 10 -- he was the No. 9 overall prospect by NFLDraftScout.com before Wednesday's workout -- but teams know that most prospects improve their 40 time when in the more relaxed home campus setting.
Comparing the lowest 40 times from the combine with the best available pro day 40 time in the past three draft classes reveals an average reduction of 0.06 seconds. More than 70 percent of the 400-plus players included in this study reduced their 40 time at their pro day, and 44 percent of those players shaved at least 1/10th of a second off the time they ran in Indy.
The average reduction in pro day 40 times could be increased if those who skipped the event at the combine had participated. Haden's teammate, linebacker Brandon Spikes, was not expected to run at the combine because of average speed, and his 40s in the 5.0-second range Wednesday did nothing to alleviate that concern.
Haden's lower 40 time, therefore, should not greatly increase his stock among NFL teams; the slight drop is not significant enough to allay scouts' fears about his inability to stay with faster pro receivers downfield. Thanks to Florida's aggressive pass rush, Haden wasn't often tested deep the past three seasons.
Add in the fact that some teams at the combine clocked Haden in the low 4.5s on their watches and that they believed Haden played like a 4.50 corner anyway, and Wednesday's result won't change their minds about that part of his game. (Similar to the way that Tebow's altered throwing performance won't change the mind of most scouts.)
Still, Haden accomplished what he needed to, and the rainy conditions might actually allow scouts to adjust his times down a bit further. Duplicating his times from Indy would have been detrimental to his stock, but staying in an acceptable range means Haden's physicality and playmaking skills should make him the top corner in this draft.
If Haden's pro day workout doesn't convince teams to select him in the top 10 (for example, falling from the No. 7 spot, where Cleveland could easily use Haden's cover skills in the secondary, to No. 13, where the 49ers also should upgrade their corner situation), it would result in millions of guaranteed dollars lost.
Last season, Oakland selected Maryland wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey seventh overall, and he received a five-year, $38.25 million deal with at least $23.5 million in guaranteed money. Washington's pick at No. 13, Texas pass rusher Brian Orakpo, received a five-year, $20 million contract with $12.1 million guaranteed.
That's a difference of $11.4 million in guaranteed money -- a huge sum as the only dollars players can bank on in the start-today, released-tomorrow nature of the NFL.
Chad Reuter is a senior analyst for NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange.
