Big three lead the way in 2011 QB class
With four quarterbacks selected among the first 12 picks of the 2011 draft -- including Cam Newton who after only 13 career starts at the FBS level was drafted No. 1 overall -- teams clearly recognize the correlation between winning and the presence of a franchise passer.
Perhaps never in the history of the NFL were so many hotly debated quarterbacks off the board as quickly as they were in April.
For all of the upside Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder possess, no one should rush to compare the 2011 class to the 1983 group topped by John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly.
The perception surrounding the 2012 QB class is vastly different. Three relative sure things in underclassmen Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley and Landry Jones could be available and at this point appear to be first-round quality prospects.
NFL scouts aren't as quick to label the trio a can't-miss crew, however. Evaluators made it apparent that perception doesn't necessarily match reality.
All three are legitimate prospects to watch and with at least two more years of eligibility remaining, none is a finished product. This isn't a case of a trio of "sure things."
In reality, the 2012 draft could again be The Andrew Luck Lottery -- assuming he leaves school after this, his redshirt junior season.
Barkley and Jones aren't on Luck's plain as blue-chip prospects and might not ascend to that level this year or even by sticking around for their fourth year of eligibility in 2012.
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| It's hard to find an NFL scout with a negative word about Andrew Luck, the consensus top quarterback entering the 2011 sesaon. (Getty Images) |
The 6-4, 235-pound Luck boasts the strong arm, Pro Bowl-caliber accuracy and leadership -- he's a virtual coach on the field -- to be a cinch as the first player drafted whenever he ultimately opts to leave Stanford.
He has the mental aptitude to rival Peyton Manning, evident in his pre-snap reads and audibles to plays more likely to gash an opponent. And unlike Manning, whose lack of mobility outside of the pocket is an obvious shortcoming, Luck is quite athletic and can hurt defenses with his feet. "[Luck] really is the total package," one high-level scout requesting anonymity told NFLDraftScout.com. "He deserves every bit of the hype he's getting. He has everything you're looking for and unlike most of today's college quarterbacks, he's playing in a pro-style offense. There is no projection with him. If he stays healthy, you're looking at a franchise-changer."
In 25 games for the Cardinal, Luck has completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 5,913 yards and a sparkling touchdown to interception ratio of 45-12. He finished second to Newton in the Heisman balloting last year and won the Pac-10's Offensive Player of the Year over Locker and fellow Heisman finalist LaMichael James, who led the country with 1,741 rushing yards and helped lead Oregon to the BCS Championship game. Barkley's career numbers to date also impress. After proving himself to be an effective game-manager under Pete Carroll as a true freshman, completing 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,735 yards and a respectable 15-14 TD to INT ratio, Barkley flourished under Lane Kiffin in 2010, boosting his completion rate to 62.2 percent and making huge strides with his decision-making. Missing one game due to injury (Notre Dame) and with USC ineligible to compete in a bowl, Barkley dramatically increased his touchdown total (26) while still shaving his interception count (12).
"First off, you have to love the intangibles with [Barkley]," one general manager told me on the condition of anonymity. "The first guy to ever start [at quarterback] at USC as a true freshman? The first sophomore there at any position to be named a team captain? Are you kidding me? He's a winner. He's Andy Dalton, but with significantly more natural talent. I've heard the comparison to Troy Aikman and I think it is valid."
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| Matt Barkley impresses scouts with his touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio and leadership capabilities. (Getty Images) |
Barkley, however, is not without flaws.
He's listed by Southern Cal at 6-2, 220 pounds, but some scouts worry he's smaller. He doesn't have an elite arm and struggles to throw spirals consistently in windy conditions due to less-than-ideal hand size.
"[Barkley] is a top talent, don't get me wrong," a west regional scout said, "but there are some physical limitations there. Not everyone loves him as much as you might think."
Those physical limitations are the reason many scouts view Sooners' redshirt junior Jones as a more intriguing prospect.
At 6-4, 230 pounds and with plenty of arm strength, Jones has the physical characteristics scouts are looking for at the position. Furthermore, his production since taking over for former 2009 No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford has earned legitimate comparisons to the young Rams' standout. Appearing in 13 games and starting 10 while Bradford was sidelined with the right shoulder injury that ultimately ended his Sooner career, Jones completed 58.1 percent of his passes for 3,198 yards and 26 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. The yardage and touchdown total were more than any other freshman in the country. Also noteworthy was Jones' eclipsing school records for the most touchdowns passes thrown in one game (six against Tulsa) and the most passing yards in a bowl game (418 against Stanford in the Sun Bowl).
As impressive as he was in 2009, Jones' production ballooned last season, which he entered as the unquestioned starter for the first time. Like Luck and Barkley, Jones' completion percentage (65.6 percent), passing yardage (4,718) and passing touchdowns (38) all rose in his second season as a starter while his interceptions dropped (12).
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| Landry Jones has the size and the arm strength scouts love, but is said to lack the accuracy of fellow Sooner Sam Bradford. (Getty Images) |
It isn't that simple, according to a longtime area scout whose region includes the University of Oklahoma.
"The biggest thing with Jones that everyone needs to realize is that he isn't Bradford," the scout said. "Sam is among the most accurate passers we've seen come down the pike in a long time. Jones is talented, but he's not in Sam's class accuracy-wise.
"[Jones] is only average athletically and in games where he got some pressure, his accuracy downfield really took a tumble. It is only natural that some are going to compare him to his predecessor, but he reminds me more of Kerry Collins. He's a strong-armed guy who can be successful, but he needs to be protected."
While all NFL personnel questioned characterize Luck as the runaway leader of the pack, the slight flaws for Barkley and Jones aren't likely to keep either from slipping too far on draft day whenever they should make themselves eligible.
Locker and Ponder entered their senior seasons graded by scouts as possible first-round picks. This year's senior class is a bit lacking at the game's most important position. NFLDraftScout.com's top-rated senior signal-caller is Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill. The former wide receiver flashed last season in Mike Sherman's pro-style attack and could be on the verge of becoming a top-tier prospect.
Assigned a second-day preseason grade by scouts, he appears to be the likeliest of an average senior class to challenge Luck, Barkley and Jones as the top targets for QB needy teams.
To do so, he'll need to make steady gains in his second season as a starting quarterback.
In that way, at least, the trio is already a step ahead of him.
Rob Rang is a Senior Analyst for NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange. Follow him on Twitter at @RobRang.
