For the gambler in you, Week 11

By Josh Katzowitz | NFL Writer

Each week, we'll take the best -- and cleverest -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you'll read all week. Because if you can't lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what's the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.

Game One: 49ers -5.5 vs. Bears
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

2012 Against The Spread
Overall: 5-4Overall: 5-4
Home: 2-3Home: 2-3
Away: 3-1Away: 3-1
Last 3 vs. CHI: 3-2Last 5 vs. SF: 2-3
2012 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 28thPass defense: 10th
Rush offense: 1stRush defense: 4th
Pass defense: 5thPass offense: 30th
Rush defense: 6thRush offense: 9th

Verdict: This game was fascinating to think about earlier in the week when it looked both teams' backups might face off against each other. If it would have been Colin Kaepernick vs. Jason Campbell, I would have picked San Francisco to win but the Bears to cover. But now that it appears that Alex Smith will start for the 49ers and Jay Cutler will be out for Chicago, San Francisco will win handily. And by handily, I mean by a touchdown. The Bears defense, after all, is still pretty damn tough.

Game Two: Rams -3.5 vs. Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

2012 Against The Spread
Overall: 6-3Overall: 5-4
Home: 3-2Home: 3-2
Away: 3-1Away: 2-2
Last 3 vs. NYJ: 2-1Last 3 vs. STL: 1-2
2012 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 19thPass defense: 6th
Rush offense: 12thRush defense: 28th
Pass defense: 13thPass offense: 27th
Rush defense: 16thRush offense: 16th

Verdict: Why, oh why do I have any faith in the Jets? This is a team on the verge of an implosion, where the quarterback controversy continues to hang over the locker room, where players rip each other anonymously, where New York has no impact players on offense and a defense that's been disappointing. Why do I think they'll hang with the Rams and even beat them (I'm the only one of the CBSSports.com clan to think so)? I don't know. I guess I still believe in Rex Ryan.

Game Three (largest spread of week): Texans -15.5 vs. Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

2012 Against The Spread
Overall: 7-2Overall: 4-5
Home: 4-1Home: 0-5
Away: 3-1Away: 4-0
Last 5 v. JAX: 2-2-1Last 5 v HOU: 2-2-1
2012 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 22ndPass defense: 22nd
Rush offense: 8thRush defense: 27th
Pass defense: 3rdPass offense: 31st
Rush defense: 3rdRush offense: 30th

Verdict: I'm torn on this one. On one hand, the Jaguars are the second-worst team in the league behind Kansas City, and the Texans, especially playing at home, should have little problem dominating this game. But then you look at Jacksonville's success against the spread on the road, and it's easy to see that they're ALWAYS underestimated, even as the underdog. Their four losses as the visitors this season: nine points to the Packers, three points to the Raiders, five points to the Colts and three points to the Vikings. That said, the Texans are too good. Go with Houston and pray Jacksonville has a terrible day.

PROP BETS

Will A.J. Green catch a TD pass in Week 11? (Note: A.J. Green has caught a TD pass in the last 8 weeks, every game except the season opener)

Yes -130

No EVEN

The Bengals are playing the Chiefs. Doesn't every player who faces the Chiefs do just about anything they want? Yes, Green's streak will continue.

Will Peyton Manning complete 70 percent or more of his passes in Week 11? (Note: Peyton Manning has done this six weeks in a row, which is an NFL record)

Yes -130

No EVEN

The last time Manning faced the Chargers, he completed a season-high 80 percent of his passes. San Diego actually is decent vs. the pass, but Manning should dominate the secondary again. This streak will continue as well.

Total passing yards Week 11 -- Nick Foles (PHI)

Over/Under 250½

I kind of think Foles is going to be a disaster vs. the Redskins. Go under.

Total passing yards Week 11 -- Byron Leftwich (PIT)

Over/Under 240½

I kind of think the same thing about Leftwich vs. the Ravens. Go way under.

Last week: 1-2 against the spread (hit on the Texans +1.5 vs. the Bears; missed on the Eagles -1.5 vs. the Cowboys, the Steelers -12.5 vs. the Chiefs)

3-1 on the prop bets. Hit on Doug Martin going under 89.5 rushing yards, Christian Ponder not being benched for Week 12, the Falcons not going undefeated in 2012; missed on the Chiefs not holding a lead until the Dec. 2 game vs. the Panthers

Overall: 15-15 against the spread; 23-7-1 on prop bets; two props still undecided (Ken Whisenhunt first coach to get fired; Robert Griffin III won't lead the league in completion percentage at the end of the regular season).

For more NFL news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnNFL on Twitter, and subscribe to our Pick-6 Podcast and NFL newsletter. You can follow Josh Katzowitz on Twitter here: @joshkatzowitz.

 
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