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For the gambler in you, Week 5: Colts will cover vs. Seahawks

By Josh Katzowitz | NFL Writer

Each week, we'll take the best -- and most clever -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you'll read all week. Because if you can't lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what's the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.

Game One: Colts +3.5 vs. Seahawks
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 2-2Overall: 4-0
Home: 0-2Home: 2-0
Away: 2-0Away: 2-0
Last 2 vs. SEA: 1-1Last 2 vs. IND: 1-1
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 23rdPass defense: 4th
Rush offense: 4thRush defense: 15th
Pass defense: 7thPass offense: 24th
Rush defense: 14thRush offense: 15th

Verdict: If you look at their NFL rankings, the Colts and the Seahawks are awfully similar. Even with a pair of dynamic second-year quarterbacks, both teams' passing games are well-below average. But both squads defend the pass well. I'm a little surprised Indianapolis is such a big underdog at home vs. Seattle, particularly since the Seahawks have been anything but dominating when playing on the road this season. I'm interested to see how well Colts quarterback Andrew Luck plays against the Seahawks secondary, and I like Indianapolis to cover and to win the game.

Game Two: Cowboys +7.5 vs. Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET CBS

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 3-1Overall: 3-1
Home: 2-0Home: 2-1
Away: 1-1Away: 1-0
Last 3 vs. DEN: 1-2Last 3 vs. DAL: 2-1
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 19thPass defense: 30th
Rush offense: 19thRush defense: 1st
Pass defense: 27thPass offense: 1st
Rush defense: 3rdRush offense: 15th

Verdict: I've liked this line all week for the Broncos, and I'm actually a little surprised the spread hasn't moved. I would have figured that more money would come in on Denver, pushing the line to around 8.5 or 9. But no, that 7.5-point spread remains tantalizing, especially since Peyton Manning is having one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career and with Dallas' No. 27 ranking in pass defense. Manning is going to have a field day in Dallas, and the Broncos will cover.

Game Three (largest spread of week): Rams -11.5 vs. Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 0-4Overall: 0-4
Home: 0-2Home: 0-2
Away: 0-2Away: 0-2
Last 2 vs. JAX: 2-0Last 2 vs. STL: 0-2
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 12thPass defense: 11th
Rush offense: 32ndRush defense: 29th
Pass defense: 18thPass offense: 29th
Rush defense: 27thRush offense: 31st

Verdict: The Rams are not a very good team (I mean, look at their ATS record). But when it comes to gambling lines for the Jagaurs, it's really, really, (really) tough to put money on Jacksonville to cover the spread. Maybe if this game was in Jacksonville, I could live with the Jaguars getting 11.5. But on the road, I just don't see it. Jacksonville will have former first-round receiver Justin Blackmon back from his four-game suspension, and that might help some. But will he alone keep Jacksonville close? No, he won't.


How many rushing atempts will the Ravens have Week 5 (not including QB attempts)? (Note: The Ravens had 9 rushes last weekend)

Over/Under 25½

If Cam Cameron was still the offensive coordinator, we'd definitely know the answer would be to go under. And it's interesting that coach John Harbaugh talked this week about how the team needs to get Rice more touches as a receiver. The last time Ray Rice got 25 carries in a regular-season game was in Week 8 of last season. The time before that? Week 12 in 2011. How many times in his career has Rice received that many carries? Eight times in 80 career games. Bernard Pierce has never carried the ball 25 times in a game. So yeah, go under.

Ryan Fitzpatrick -- Total passing yards Week 5 vs. KC?

Over/Under 199½

I've got no faith in Fitzpatrick to break the 200-yard mark, especially going against the NFL's second-best passing defense. The Chiefs give up an average of 188.8 passing yards per game. Go under.

Last week: 2-1 against the spread; 2-1 on prop bets. Overall this year: 7-5 against the spread, 5-5 on prop bets. Last two years: 33-40 against the spread; 39-22-1 on prop bets.

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