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NFL Week 14 Best Bets: Banking on prime time to reverse skid

Finally, this bitter season is nearing its close.

I won't have to publicly flog myself anymore over my horrible picks against the spread until September. I'm relishing the respite.

I'm losing my confidence completely in this endeavor. It's brutal. Last week I go 3-0 on turkey day, think I'm on my way to great week ... and then the bottom falls out at 1 p.m. Sunday. No bueno.

Anyway, I've been pretty good on the prime time games, so I'm throwing some of those games in here. What do I have to lose at this point?

So, with that weekly disclaimer out of the way, here's what I'm looking at this week:

Dallas (+1) at Bears

The Bears defense is really poor and the rush defense in particular is brutal; Dallas is finding its way in the run game and DeMarco Murray could explode here. A conservative approach is on order, while the Bears are on life support after two straight tough setbacks. I like the Cowboys defense to step up with Ware making his presence felt and Sean Lee set to return. Give me the points here. Well, give me the point.

Atlanta (-2½) at Packers

As much as the Packers want Aaron Rodgers back and as much as he's dying to come back, it does not appear that likely right now. They are an entirely different team without him. They don't have a defense right now and even a weak Atlanta run defense should be able to sellout to stop Eddie Lacy, as so many others have. The Falcons offense is creeping back with Roddy White finally healthy and Tony Gonzalez trying to go out with a bang and they have no pressure whatsoever at this point, while Green Bay will try to save its season with Matt Flynn under center.

Carolina (+3) at Saints

I have some concerns about the Saints defense. They face another top opponent -- one that can beat you up physically -- on a very short week after some brutal travel. Sure they are home and in the dome, but this Panthers team is too young to care and I think Cam Newton will cause Rob Ryan even more trouble than Russell Wilson did last week. They can dictate tempo and I don't like the odds of Ryan's blitz-happy approach getting to Newton with his unique physical gifts. The Saint might be due for a loss at home, and give me the points here.

So that's it for this week, except, well, I've got a super secret bonus hidden pick on the accompanying video, and well, if I hit that pick you can be damn sure I'll be riding this gimmick until my luck runs out.

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