So we've had a month or so to digest the draft and check out how rookies are being integrated into their teams. Figured it was time to update the Top 50 rookie-only rank list.
Before I do, I want to mention that I got a LOT of flak for my original list. Dynasty leagues, more than any other kind of league, have some extreme variables. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder -- individual Fantasy rosters vary and the whole concept of need-based drafting changes. Some owners will take players at positions just because they need a guy to start, others will ignore team need and take the best available players. When I do this, I'm looking strictly at best available players without regard to any other factors.
Okay, let's do this.
1. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans
2. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
3. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
4. Odell Beckham, WR, Giants
5. Eric Ebron, TE, Lions
No changes in my Top 5. I am very much on board with Sankey as the top pick, suggesting he's just as safe as Evans and Watkins but at a premium position where finding 20-touch backs are hard to find. I will admit that seeing the reports of Watkins decimating the Bills defense in early spring practices are alluring but everyone's supposed to look good in shorts. I have no problem if you value Watkins more than Evans but I see the big guy in Tampa Bay as a massive stat producer, particularly in the end zone. ... I'm also getting a sense that Beckham will get fast-tracked to the Giants' starting lineup, so like Evans and Watkins, he could pay off early on as a rookie.
6. Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints
7. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers
8. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles
9. Terrance West, RB, Browns
10. Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars
Two changes in this group: Cooks has moved ahead of Hyde and Matthews jumps into the Top 10. I can't help myself with Matthews, I just like him too much and figure that if he stays healthy and if Chip Kelly stays in Philadelphia, he's going to have a career with lots of receptions and touchdowns. He's eventually going to be the No. 1 receiver there, even if he doesn't have elite speed. But Hyde stays ahead of him simply because I expect him to be the new bell cow back in San Francisco by 2015, if not sooner. He's a powerful, physical running back in the image of Frank Gore. Count on him to eventually produce like Frank Gore.
11. Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
12. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings
13. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers
14. Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars
15. Davante Adams, WR, Packers
Freeman falls to 11th. I still like him as at least a stopgap running back for Atlanta, if not a full-blown starter for three or four years. Benjamin has more upside but I wonder how long it will take him to get there. Similarly, I think Robinson can become a contributor sooner but not with the kind of upside Benjamin has. Adams is right in that range too, but I'm not sure how much he'll play in 2014. But I like him a lot once he gets a regular opportunity.
16. Johnny Manziel, QB, Browns
17. Cody Latimer, WR, Broncos
18. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts
19. Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars
20. Andre Williams, RB, Giants
Andre Williams fell a bit from my first ranking, but it's not because of anything he did. It's more about what's expected from him compared to receivers who have 1,000-yard potential in the future. That's where Latimer, Moncrief and Lee come in. They have all sorts of potential to produce big numbers, though it's not going to happen for them this season unless they can make a big impact in training camp (and if they do then they'll head north in these rankings). Williams does have the potential to be a regular starter for the Giants, potentially toward the middle of this season, so he's got some pretty good value here. But I think there's more flop potential with him than with the receivers, so I'm hedging the bet here.
21. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals
22. Tre Mason, RB, Rams
23. Jace Amaro, TE, Jets
24. Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers
25. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings
Sims is a big mover in these rankings as it appears clear he'll be the Bucs' passing downs back as soon as this season. That doesn't mean he'll get over 1,000 yards per season and his touchdowns might not come around very often, but it does mean he'll be involved for a while and could serve as at least good depth for a Fantasy roster. ... Mason is a guy I struggle with because I like his game plenty but I'm also a big fan of Zac Stacy. I can't trust a Top 20 pick in him.
26. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers
27. James White, RB, Patriots
28. Tom Savage, QB, Texans
29. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Buccaneers
30. Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens
31. Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins
32. Derek Carr, QB, Raiders
33. Josh Huff, WR, Eagles
34. T.J. Jones, WR, Lions
35. Dri Archer, RB, Steelers
36. Zach Mettenberger, QB, Titans
37. Robert Herron, WR, Buccaneers
38. Paul Richardson, WR, Seahawks
39. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Patriots
40. Alfred Blue, RB, Texans
41. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns
42. Shaquelle Evans, WR, Jets
43. John Brown, WR, Cardinals
44. Jalen Saunders, WR, Jets
45. Ryan Grant, WR, Redskins
46. Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Bears
47. Jared Abbrederis, WR, Packers
48. Kevin Norwood, WR, Seahawks
49. Bruce Ellington, WR, 49ers
50. Lache Seastrunk, RB, Redskins