Prisco Picks: Conference Championship

 
 
CBSSports.com Senior Writer Pete Prisco predicts the score of each NFL game every week.
 
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Prisco's Picks · Expert Picks · Odds
 
Sunday, Jan. 20, 2013
San Francisco 49ers 28, Atlanta Falcons 24
21The 49ers have not won a road playoff game since 1989. That's telling. But this 49ers team is built to win on the road. They are physical, tough, can run it and they play good defense. The key will be how well Colin Kaepernick plays in his first road playoff game. He was sensational last week against the Packers, but going on the road in a dome in the playoffs is tough for any quarterback, let alone a young one. This Falcons regime ended their playoff jinx last week by beating the Seahawks in a game they nearly lost after leading big. The Falcons gave up 385 passing yards, but they did a good job against the Seattle run. That will be key here. They have to limit the 49ers running game and make Kaepernick beat them through the air. Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan did a lot of good things to confuse some top-level quarterbacks during the regular season, so he will have plenty of looks for Kaepernick. Atlanta's offense should have success down the field against the 49ers. They have to attack with their outside receivers. And I think they will and they will get some big plays. They need to keep that 49ers defense off-balance as New England did. San Francisco's pass rush hasn't been great the past three games. Matt Ryan will get some chances and he will make some big plays. This won't be about the Atlanta running game. This will be about Ryan seizing the moment. The Falcons are going to the Super Bowl.
Result: Atlanta Falcons 24, San Francisco 49ers 28
24
Baltimore Ravens 28, New England Patriots 13
28The Ravens are riding high with two consecutive playoff victories, including a huge upset of the Broncos last week. Quarterback Joe Flacco has done a great job. He has been poised, calm and accurate. He lit up the Broncos last week. Flacco should have some shots down the field here with Torrey Smith against a New England team that finished 29th against the pass this season. The key the past couple of weeks for the Ravens has been their offensive line. They have done a great job in protection. The defense did a nice job of creating turnovers against Peyton Manning. They have to do the same thing to the Patriots to win this game. But the Patriots don't turn it over much. Tom Brady is so good at finding the mismatches in the secondary that he rarely makes the big mistake. And he's got a great feel for avoiding pressure in the pocket. Brady will get his big plays against a Ravens defense that isn't quite what it has been in the past. I look for New England to spread out Baltimore and attack that way, with both the run and the pass. This has the makings of a fun, high-scoring game. The Ravens lost a close one last year in the AFC championship game to the Patriots and I think this one will follow suit. Baltimore will keep it close, but in the end Brady will make a play when he has to do so to get to another Super Bowl.
Result: New England Patriots 13, Baltimore Ravens 28
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PRISCO'S WEEKLY WINNING PERCENTAGE
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62%81%43%66%71%42%76%71%57%71%71%68%68%62%56%68%62%64%
 
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