You could not have found many general managers, owners, coaches or top coaching agents who did not think that Josh McDaniels and Kyle Shanahan would be the two most-coveted head coaching candidates as the regular season concluded. Their teams, the Patriots and Falcons, wrapped up excellent seasons led by the offenses that these men coordinated, and other franchises were already jostling to tap into their schemes and acumen.

Yet here we stand in the middle of January, just one vacancy in the NFL still currently unfilled, and McDaniels and Shanahan are coaching their teams this weekend, still unsure of what their future holds. Barring some other situation blowing up (Houston? Indianapolis?) very late in the process, one of them will be left back in his existing job next season, not that there is anything wrong with that. Because either will be uniquely poised as the top dog a year from now when this carousel ramps up again. And neither has done anything awkward or unusual to set himself back; alas much of how and why this played out the way it has was out of their hands, and says more about the various franchises leading these searches than it does either of these particular candidates.

Still, it's a little bit shocking.

Had you posited to me, three weeks ago, that the Rams and Chargers would collectively hire two first-time head coaches with limited coordinating experience (Sean McVay, part of Shanahan's coaching tree, and Anthony Lynn), the Jaguars would go with Doug Marrone over both of these offensive wunderkinds and the 49ers would effectively have their pick of McDaniels and Shanahan, I'd have scoffed.

You could have made me that wager and be deep in my pockets right now. Deep.

But really, I should know better by now as well. I've documented in various columns over the years about how this process is far-too-infrequently a true meritocracy, and how quickly many become self-fulfilling processes based on a candidate's malleability and willingness to spit back a desired answer to a loaded question ( What do you think of our starting quarterback that we really, truly still believe is a franchise guy? How willing would you be to keeping a bunch of our coaches on staff? Don't you think our personnel staff is really top notch?! )

I find myself each year assessing the X's and O's and rosters and needs and strengths of candidates, forgetting that, often, that stuff won't really carry the day. It's often a matter of timing and relationships and conformity, in the end, that closes these deals.

So how did we reach this point, with McDaniels and Shanahan waiting to see which will get the nod from 49ers owner Jed York (I've heard of York's interest in McDaniels for years and the former head coach was always very well positioned for this opening) as they coach in the divisional round of the playoffs?

It requires parsing through some of the central themes of the five searches that have been concluded already with the rush of activity that resulted in Sean McDermott (Bills), Vance Joseph (Broncos), Sean McVay (Rams) and Anthony Lynn (Chargers) hired in fairly rapid succession after the Jaguars began last week by promoting Marrone, their interim head coach the final two games.

Jaguars

The Jags and 49ers are the only two teams to interview both of these candidates, and that they hired neither says far more about Jacksonville than the two coordinators. Two factors drove this search -- Tom Coughlin coming in and being the new sheriff in town, empowered with overseeing seemingly anything and everything he desires. And the next coach of the Jags being totally on board with Blake Bortles and fully committed to the idea the quarterback who collapsed in 2016 was the guy you can win with right now. Which very much explains the outcome.

Everyone there reports to Coughlin now, more or less, and even coaching decisions like which existing assistants to keep and whom to fire -- generally the domain of the head coach -- go through Coughlin. Yeah, that wasn't going to work real well with two offensive minded coordinators who rightfully would have very strong feelings about their staff and what it takes to implement their system.

Marrone, meanwhile, who already had some coaches very close to him on the payroll, is cool with any structure the team wants. Oh, and he's already coached Blake Bortles and thinks he made strides in their two (meaningless) games together and, of course, we can get him looking like he was worthy of being selected third overall a few years ago. So, yeah, Marrone is their guy.


Bills

This one was never about finding the absolute best and brightest guy possible. The Bills can claim they are a functional franchise all they want, yet here they are on their fifth head coach since New Year's Day of 2013, when Chan Gailey was about to be let go in favor of none other than ... Doug Marrone. And just two years later, Marrone would execute a $4 million buyout in his contract to leave the Bills and end up taking a far-less-than-lateral move to coach offensive line in ... Jacksonville. (And yet people wonder why some teams rarely compete).

And then Rex Ryan would last just two years as head coach in Buffalo as he continued to clash with the tempestuous front office, which led to him being fired in-season so that Lynn could take over in Week 17. It was supposed to be a brief precursor to Lynn being made the permanent head coach. Buffalo embarked on a limited search with none of the big, sexy names involved (no McDaniels, Shanahan or even McVay) and no attempts to speak to a proven top offensive coordinator at all.

McDermott ended up clicking with ownership during what became an extended interview and Lynn had the temerity to raise some concerns about how the Tyrod Taylor situation was being handled. And if GM Doug Whaley somehow manages to outlast this latest new coach, well, he deserves a bust in Canton.


Broncos

This was always Joseph's job to lose. After a rough stint as the Broncos' coach previously, this was never going to be a fit for McDaniels. And while Shanahan has unique ties to this organization, with his dad coaching Denver to two Super Bowls with John Elway as his quarterback, it was always a stretch Elway would go with him here. Elway was super high on Joseph two years ago when he was able to lure Gary Kubiak back to Denver, and the moment Kubiak made his retirement official (actually, even before it), Elway's eyes were fixed on Joseph. This made sense to management for multiple reasons.

There were all kinds of rumblings that, besides his health, Kubiak was also keen to move on because upper management wanted some changes on his staff, looking for an influx of younger assistants. Regardless of the next head coach, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips was moving on, and there were going to be changes on offense as well. And while some of Kubiak's guys seem to prefer QB Trevor Siemian, there is going to be a push to get Paxton Lynch, the 2016 first-round pick, ready to play as soon as possible.

Make no mistake, Elway runs this franchise and he has never feared shaking things up in a big way every few years. Shanahan already had very strong relationships with Kubiak's top assistants from their time together in Houston -- the very guys who were quickly let go once Joseph was hired. So, yeah, this was Joseph's job all along, and Elway wanted to act fast because Joseph was the hottest defensive coordinator out there the moment his Dolphins lost in the wild-card round.


Rams

The Rams were always going to hire an offensive guru to try to get them playing attractive football and try to develop Jared Goff, the first-overall pick in 2016. They were the other team McDaniels interviewed with during his bye week (along with the Jags and 49ers), but those interviews if you recall, because of NFL rules with the Patriots playing on Saturday in the divisional round, all had to be conducted on the same day. And all were limited to just three hours.

Circumstances were even worse for Shanahan, as his interview with the Rams never even took place. They tried to get to Atlanta during his playoff bye but weather kept them stuck in New England, where they had met with McDaniels, and that was it. NFL rules are restrictive as to the windows you can talk to coaches still involved in the playoffs, and the Rams would have had to wait until Saturday to see if the Falcons beat the Seahawks before trying to re-schedule. Or they could wait until possibly the Super Bowl to hire McDaniels, should the Patriots keep winning in the playoffs.

But time was something of a factor here, with Chargers suddenly now on their turf too, formally announcing their move to L.A., and they had already fallen in love with McVay. And understandably so. He is incredibly prepared and engaging well beyond his 30 years. He blew not just Rams brass away during his long interview, but Goff too. With the Redskins not in the playoffs, McVay had no restrictions on his time or ability to wine and dine with the Rams. With the 49ers also interested in him, the Rams were ready to pounce late this week.

Jon Gruden believes that Sean McVay is the next Jon Gruden, and Gruden's word goes very far with Rams COO Kevin Demoff, so this was hardly a shocker.


Chargers

This search was similar to the Jags and Bills in many ways. Despite moving to a new market, the Chargers weren't willing to spend big or make a big splash or go outside the box. They didn't bother with McDaniels or Shanahan (or Gruden or Sean Payton, for that matter) and were not going to alter their power structure or front office in any capacity. And if the new coach is willing to keep a bunch of their current assistant coaches, well, all the better.

They reached out to primarily defensive and special teams coaches, but ended up with Lynn, who somehow didn't end up with the Bills, where he had been talking to the GM for weeks about the job, and who had never even been a coordinator until Buffalo fired Greg Roman in September and he took over.

The league moves in mysterious ways sometimes, but it was clear all along that this wasn't the job for Shanahan or McDaniels because they never asked for permission to speak to either of them.


49ers

Which brings us back to the 49ers, now suddenly the only game in town.

The 49ers are prepared to take their time and wouldn't have an issue waiting for either coach should their teams continue to prosper, from what I hear. The 49ers still have multiple GM interviews scheduled for next week, anyway, and it's hardly impossible to start putting a new staff together for your next coach ahead of actually hiring him. Heck, Shanahan was a part of that himself two years ago with the Falcons securing him while their head-coach-to-be, Dan Quinn, was still coaching in Seattle in the postseason,