For the gambler in you, Week 10: Eagles will beat Seneca Wallace

Seneca Wallace will try to replace Aaron Rodgers. (USATSI)
Seneca Wallace will try to replace Aaron Rodgers. (USATSI)

Each week, we'll take the best -- and most clever -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.

Game One: Packers -1.5 vs. Eagles
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 4-4 Overall: 4-5
Home: 3-1 Home: 0-4
Away: 1-3 Away: 4-1
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 6th Pass defense: 32nd
Rush offense: 3rd Rush defense: 14th
Pass defense: 20th Pass offense: 10th
Rush defense: 5th Rush offense: 4th

Verdict: Well, I guess we get to see exactly how many points the injured Aaron Rodgers is worth. With him this game probably would be somewhere in the -10 neighborhood. Instead, Green Bay will be forced to play Seneca Wallace -- who did not look stellar while replacing Rodgers last week. The good news for the Packers is that Wallace will have received a full week of practice taking the first-team reps. The bad news: Wallace is no Rodgers. The Eagles have played better recently, so I'd go with Philadelphia to cover and to win. 

Game Two: Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Dolphins
Monday, 8:40 p.m. ET ESPN

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 2-6 Overall: 4-4
Home: 1-3 Home: 2-2
Away: 1-3 Away: 2-2
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 31st Pass defense: 22nd
Rush offense: 18th Rush defense: 21st
Pass defense: 15th Pass offense: 21st
Rush defense: 12th Rush offense: 22nd

Verdict: The Buccaneers were so close to grabbing their first win of the season last week, building a three-touchdown lead on the Seahawks in the first half. Despite the fact Tampa Bay lost, that confidence-builder is one of the main reasons I think Tampa Bay will break its season-long losing streak when the Dolphins come to visit. Plus, the whole Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin probably won't help the Dolphins, along with the speculation about the jobs of the coach and general manager. It's crazy that, at this point in the season, Tampa Bay is more stable than Miami. 

Game Three (largest spread of week): Titans -11.5 vs. Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 5-2-1 Overall: 1-7
Home: 1-2-1 Home: 0-4
Away: 4-0 Away: 1-3
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 24th Pass defense: 12th
Rush offense: 15th Rush defense: 31st
Pass defense: 7th Pass offense: 19th
Rush defense: 25th Rush offense: 31st

Verdict: This line opened at -13.5 for the Titans, and without question, I took the Jaguars. Apparently, the majority of people agreed with me, and now, the line has been shifted. In reality, this is one of the Jaguars better chances to grab a win this season, but with this game in Tennessee and with Titans running back Chris Johnson coming off his best game of the season, I just don't see Jacksonville covering here. Go with the Titans. 


Seneca Wallace -- Total passing yards Week 10 vs. Philadelphia    

Over/Under   225½ (-115)

The last time Wallace threw for more than 226 yards in a game occurred in Week 2 of 2010 when he threw for ... 229 yards. So, I'm inclined to go Under on this one. But then again, the Eagles are the worst pass defense team in the league. So, basically, a toss-up. I go ... um ... hmm ... eh ... Under, I guess.

How many Sacks will the Bucs have vs. the Dolphins Week 10?(Note: The Dolphins lead the league in sacks allowed with 35 and are now playing without Martin and Incognito)

Over/Under   2½

With the way Gerald McCoy is playing on Tampa Bay's defensive line this season, he's liable to get 2 1/2 sacks all by himself. Which would more than double his total for this year, but whatever. Tampa Bay is tied for 26th in the league in sacks recorded, but I think the Buccaneers break out this weekend. Go Over.

Last week: 2-1 against the spread; 1-1 on prop bets. Overall this year: 15-12 against the spread, 11-10 on prop bets. Last two years: 41-47 against the spread; 45-27-1 on prop bets.

See my picks and all the experts here.

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