For the gambler in you, Week 14

Each week, we’ll take the best -- and cleverest -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.

Game One: Patriots -3.5 vs. Texans
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

2012 Against The Spread
Overall: 7-5 Overall: 8-4
Home: 2-3 Home: 4-2
Away: 5-2 Away: 4-2
Last 3 vs. HOU: 2-1 Last 3 vs. NE: 1-2
2012 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 6th Pass defense: 19th
Rush offense: 8th Rush defense: 2nd
Pass defense: 29th Pass offense: 1oth
Rush defense: 9th Rush offense: 6th

Verdict: All along, I've been saying the Texans will win the AFC and play in the Super Bowl. I'm not quite as optimistic at this point, and I'm not sure they can beat the Patriots in Foxboro. It's weird to say this about a team on a six-game winning streak, but I haven't been impressed with Houston during that time span. I'll be interested to see what Houston's secondary can do against Tom Brady. I think he leads the Patriots to cover.

Game Two: Steelers -7.5 vs. Chargers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

2012 Against The Spread
Overall: 5-6-1 Overall: 5-7
Home: 2-2-1 Home: 2-4
Away: 3-4 Away: 3-3
Last 5 vs. SD: 3-2 Last 5 vs. PIT: 2-3
2012 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 14th Pass defense: 21st
Rush offense: 23rd Rush defense: 7th
Pass defense: 1st Pass offense: 18th
Rush defense: 5th Rush offense: 25th

Verdict: The first time I saw this line, the Steelers were giving 6.5. Needless to say, I like that betting line much better than this one. But I'm still going Pittsburgh. The Chargers are on the verge of blowing up the franchise and starting over. For the Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger is returning from injury. Will he be rusty? Could be. Will it matter? Probably not. 

Game Three (largest spread of week): 49ers -10.5 vs. Dolphins
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

2012 Against The Spread
Overall: 7-5 Overall: 6-6
Home: 3-3 Home: 3-3
Away: 4-2 Away: 3-3
Last 3 vs. MIA: 2-1 Last 3 vs. SF: 1-2
2012 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 25th Pass defense: 26th
Rush offense: 2nd Rush defense: 8th
Pass defense: 2nd Pass offense: 23rd
Rush defense: 3rd Rush offense: 16th

Verdict: The Dolphins have been perfectly average against the spread this season, and though traveling across the country to face one of the best teams in the NFC won't be easy, I'm not sold on Colin Kaepernick as a guy who will take the 49ers offense to new heights. Miami's run defense will be good enough to make sure this isn't a blowout. Go with the Dolphins.


Mark Sanchez -- Total interceptions Week 14

Over   1/2 (-200)

Under 1/2 (+160)

Sanchez said his benching last week was a wake-up call for him, and I think that will make him play better Sunday against the Jaguars. But he’s still Mark Sanchez, and he’s still going to throw interceptions. He’ll win, but he won’t be perfect. He’ll throw at least one.

Mark Sanchez -- Will he be benched Week 14? (Non-injury related)   

Yes  +200 (2-1)

No    -300 (1-3)

We can talk about the state of the Jets and how bad the situation is, but they still proved last week they can beat some of the worst teams in the league. Jacksonville qualifies as that. Sanchez will play better than he did last week, and there won’t be a reason to go back to Greg McElroy for now.

Which rookie QB will throw the most TD passes in the 2012 regular season? (Note: Russell Wilson has 19, RGIII and Andrew Luck both have 17)

Russell Wilson (SEA) QB   5-6

Robert Griffin III (WAS) QB   9-4 

Andrew Luck (IND) QB    9-4    

Luck’s final four games are against the Texans twice, the Chiefs and the Titans. None of those squads rank in the top 18 in pass defense in the NFL. I like his chances to pass Wilson and hold off Griffin.

Last week: 0-3 against the spread (hit on Eagles +10.5 vs. Cowboys; missed on Bears -3.5 vs. Seahawks, Raiders -1.5 vs. Jaguars. 0-1 on prop bets: missed on Steelers running back fumbles over 1.

Overall: 18-21 against the spread; 27-10-1 on prop bets; three props still undecided (Ken Whisenhunt first coach to get fired; Robert Griffin III won't lead the league in completion percentage at the end of the regular season; Cardinals will end season on 12-game losing streak).

For more NFL news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnNFL on Twitter, and subscribe to our Pick-6 Podcast and NFL newsletter. You can follow Josh Katzowitz on Twitter here: @joshkatzowitz.

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