Neither the Falcons nor the Seahawks expected to be in this situation: trailing in their divisions, fighting for survival, no longer favorites in the NFC. But here they are. It's Week 11 and both teams that entered the season with legitimate Super Bowl hopes are facing a must-win game on Monday night if they're going to catch the new front-runners.

Week 11 of "Monday Night Football" brings us to Seattle -- my hometown, where it definitely doesn't rain as much as you think it does -- for Falcons-Seahawks. Both teams are coming off wins, but both are also fighting off their own kind of demons.

The Falcons are trying to fight off history's nastiest hangover. After blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots in the Super Bowl, the Falcons have limped out to a 5-4 record. They're trailing both the Saints and the Panthers in the NFC South. Coming off a dominant 27-7 win over the Cowboys, the Falcons could be turning the corner. Or maybe they just beat a Cowboys team lacking three of its four most important players (Tyron Smith, Ezekiel Elliott, and Sean Lee). One thing is certain: Desperation is a hell of a drug in the NFL, and the Falcons are certainly using their fair share of it.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are also coming off a win -- a 22-16 victory over the Carson Palmer-less and David Johnson-less Cardinals. All is not well in the Pacific Northwest. Not only are the Seahawks (6-3) trailing the Rams in the NFC West, they're also going to be forced to play the remainder of the season without two of their most important players in cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks are still a dangerous team -- any team with Russell Wilson would be -- but they're probably not the Super Bowl contender we thought they might be, especially since the Rams could take the division, which would mean the Seahawks would have to leave the friendly confines of CenturyLink Field in the playoffs.

It's a big game for both teams. I don't feel confident in taking either team considering the Falcons' offensive woes and the Seahawks' injury woes, but I'm taking the Falcons in a road upset because they're going up against a defense that just won't be itself without two of its most important players.

The prediction: Falcons 28, Seahawks 24

My "MNF" prediction record: 8-2

How to watch, stream

  • When: Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle
  • TV: ESPN
  • Streaming: WatchESPN  

Note: All stats/rankings are accurate entering Sunday's Week 11 slate of games.

Russell Wilson or Matt Ryan?

Now, this is an interesting question. Call it the Unofficial Pete Prisco Quarterback Litmus Test. Would you rather have Russell Wilson or Matt Ryan in this game?

As of now, the answer is Wilson. That doesn't mean Wilson has had a better career than Ryan, or that Wilson is a better pocket passer than Ryan, or that we should forget about Ryan's MVP award from a year ago. It's just means Wilson is playing better than Ryan right now.

This year, Wilson has completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 2,543 yards, 19 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 97.4 passer rating. Don't forget about his 290 yards and one touchdown on the ground.

Ryan, on the other hand, has completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 2,372 yards, 13 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a 93.9 passer rating. You can forget about his 79 rushing yards.

Obviously, there are other factors at play for Ryan's regression. Kyle Shanahan's replacement, Steve Sarkisian, has been a disaster as the new offensive coordinator. But Ryan is the one with Julio Jones, a better offensive line, and a good ground game. Wilson is the one with a disaster of an offensive line, a good-not-great receiving corps, and a non-existent running game. And it's not like Darrell Bevell is some offensive mastermind. Wilson is often forced to run around like crazy in the backfield to buy time for his receivers before launching up jump balls.

Yeah, this throw below probably should've been picked, but I don't care. It's awesome, and it's why some people believe Wilson is a generational quarterback.

Still, despite the Seahawks' edge in quarterbacks, I can't take them when I know how banged up they are.  

Stopping Adrian Clayborn

Wilson better hope new left tackle Duane Brown can play. Brown, who is dealing with a sprained ankle, is listed as questionable. He's needed if the Seahawks are going to survive against Adrian Clayborn.

The Falcons' defensive end faced a backup last week, when Chaz Green filled in for Cowboys All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith. He ended up notching six(!) sacks of the very mobile Dak Prescott -- four if which came against Green.

It's not like Clayborn has consistently dominated opposing offensive lines. Clayborn hadn't racked up six sacks in a single season since 2011. And getting a hold of Wilson, as that clip above proves, is rather difficult. But he feasted on a bad backup last week and if Brown can't play, he'll have another opportunity to do so against Matt Tobin. According to The Seattle Times, Tobin has never started a game at left tackle in his career. That's not great -- for the Seahawks.

It's perfect for Clayborn and the Falcons.

Replacing Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor

That's a misleading header, because the Seahawks can't replace either of those players, both of whom are out for the season. Since entering the NFL in 2011, Sherman has 32 interceptions -- the most in that span by six picks. This year, according to Pro Football Focus, he's allowed a 75.5 passer rating in coverage. Last year, Sherman allowed a 63.8 passer rating in coverage.

To try to replace him, the Seahawks signed former Legion of Boom member Byron Maxwell, who rebounded last year by allowing a 71.6 passer rating in coverage. Maxwell is serviceable and finds himself in a good situation, playing on a good defense with a strong pass rush, but don't mistake him for Sherman.

His absence will have a domino effect. Teams already tried to pick on rookie Shaquill Griffin and they're unlikely to stop now. Griffin's handled himself well (79.7 passer rating in coverage, per PFF), but he'll face an even bigger test without Sherman.

The bad news: Julio Jones is coming to town. The good news: Jones hasn't been himself this season, averaging 79.4 receiving yards per game and scoring only one touchdown.

More good news: All-World free safety Earl Thomas is expected to return after a two-game absence, which should provide the Seahawks cornerbacks with some much needed air support.

I wouldn't have given the Falcons a chance to win this game if the Seahawks were healthy on defense. But they're not.

No Devonta Freeman, no problem

The Falcons are also shorthanded. They're going to be without Freeman, who is dealing with his second concussion of the season. This year, Freeman is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and has scored five touchdowns.

The Falcons are, however, better equipped to deal with their RB1's absence than most teams thanks to Tevin Coleman's presence. Coleman is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has scored four touchdowns from scrimmage. He'd be a starter on most other teams. Even without Freeman, the Falcons are going to hold the advantage when it comes to each team's ground games.

But the Falcons are going up against a defense that is allowing the 10th fewest rushing yards per game (101). Overall, the Seahawks' defense is the seventh-best by DVOA. Then again, as previously noted, the Seahawks are down two of their most important players. For all of the attention Sherman gets as a cover corner, he's also a strong tackler in the running game. He posted the fourth-highest stop percentage among cornerbacks this season, per PFF. Chancellor was ranked third among all safeties.

The Falcons should be able to run the ball against this version of the Seahawks' defense. On the season, the Falcons are actually averaging 4.5 yards per carry -- the fifth-highest average in football.

The Falcons' regression

Let's take a quick look at how dramatic the Falcons' offense has fallen off.

  • Last year, the Falcons scored 33.8 points per game. This year, they're scoring 21.9.
  • Last year, the Falcons gained 415.8 yards per game. This year, they're gaining 368.
  • Last year, Ryan averaged 9.3 yards per pass. This year, he's averaging 7.9.
  • Last year, Ryan's touchdown percentage was 7.1. This year, it's 4.3.
  • Last year, Jones averaged 100.6 yards per game. This year, he's averaging 79.4.

You get the point. The Falcons' passing attack is no longer prolific. But again, it all comes back to the injuries. The Falcons offense will have a chance to awaken against a defense lacking Sherman, Chancellor, and Cliff Avril.

Jimmy Graham: Red zone machine

Finally, the Seahawks figured out how to use tight end Jimmy Graham. In his first two seasons with the Seahawks, he caught eight touchdowns in 27 regular season games. This year, he's caught six touchdowns in nine games.

They're finally using him like the red zone weapon he is. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Seahawks threw the ball to Graham 25 times in the red zone in 2015-16. In 2017, they've thrown the ball to him 16 times in the red zone.

There's no stopping this:

Or this:

Graham and the Seahawks are finally in sync. 

About damn time.