In this week's Sorting the Sunday Pile column, there's a couple thousand words on potential playoff scenarios in the NFL. But after writing the piece, I got a bunch of questions on Twitter (@WillBrinson) relating to the NFC seeding possibilities.
All six of the NFC teams are locked into the playoffs, but there are still plenty of changes that can occur with the seeding.
Panthers fans want to know what opponent they’re likely to get, Seahawks fans want to know who they’ll be playing depending on Sunday, etc. So let’s take a team-by-team look below at how the NFC could end up shaking out.
For purposes of playoff matchups, remember the bracket resets after the first round with the lowest seed playing the top seed. So say hypothetically the Seahawks are the No. 5 seed and beat the Redskins in the first round while the Packers as a No. 3 seed beat the No. 6 seed Vikings. The Panthers would host the Seahawks, while the Cardinals host the Packers.
In order of current seeding:
Most likely seed: No. 1 overall.
How they get it: Win on Sunday against the Buccaneers at home. Carolina dispatched the Bucs in Tampa 37-23 back in Week 4. Prior outcomes don’t tell us anything about future results (see: Carolina’s loss to the Falcons) but with home field advantage at stake, the Panthers are a good bet to win against a Tampa team only playing for pride.
Could also end up as: No. 2 seed.
How that happens: If the Panthers lose to Tampa and the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, Arizona will hold a tiebreaker over Carolina with a better record in conference games (11-1 versus 10-2).
Most likely seed: No. 2 overall
How they get it: Arizona is a full three games clear of the Packers and Vikings, so win or lose against Seattle on Sunday they’re holding a first-round bye after beating Green Bay handily on Sunday.
Could also end up as: No. 1 seed
How that happens: The Cardinals beat the Seahawks and the Panthers lose to the Buccaneers, causing Carolina and Arizona to flip spots. Talk about a disappointing end to the Panthers season and a critical home-field advantage for the Cardinals.
Most likely seed: No. 3 overall
How they get it: Beat the Vikings at Lambeau Field on Sunday evening, a game flexed to Sunday Night Football by the NFL. The matchup between the Packers and Vikings is for the NFC North title and the No. 3 seed.
Could also end up as: No. 5 seed
How that happens: Losing to the Vikings on Sunday (the Packers are only 3-point favorites after getting throttled by the Cardinals this week) would lock the Packers in as the No. 5 seed regardless of what the Seahawks do because Green Bay holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Seattle.
Most likely seed: No. 4 seed
How they get it: The Redskins are actually already locked! Their 8-7 record is by far the worst of any division winner but they can’t fall lower than No. 4 while winning their division due to NFL rules.
Most likely seed: No. 5 seed
How they get it: No one has as much variance as the Vikings do on the playoffs on the NFC side. If the expected outcomes occur and the Vikings lose to the Packers while the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, Minnesota’s 10-6 record would give them the No. 5 spot and a road trip to Washington for a playoff game.
Could also end up as: No. 3 seed, No. 6 seed
How that happens: The Vikings would lock down the No. 3 seed and an NFC North division title with a win in Lambeau on Sunday night.
If they lose to the Packers and the Seahawks beat the Cardinals, Seattle would be the No. 5 seed (head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings) and Minnesota would drop to No. 6 with an immediate rematch against the Packers.
Most likely seed: No. 6 seed
How they get it: If the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals — who will be playing their starters in an attempt to get home field advantage and because Bruce Arians rolls like that — they’ll be 9-7 and firmly locked into the No. 6 seed. If the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and the Vikings beat the Packers, they also end up as No. 5 because Green Bay owns the tiebreaker over Seattle.
Could also end up as: No. 5 seed
How that happens: The Seahawks beat the Cardinals and the Packers beat the Vikings, giving Seattle the tiebreaker over the Vikings and the No. 5 spot.
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So, armed with all that knowledge, what should you be rooting for as a fan heading into Week 17? Depends on what team you cheer for and who you would rather play. For the purposes of this discussion, I think the Seahawks are the scariest of the four teams involved in the wild-card games (despite their egg against the Rams Sunday), followed by the Packers, Vikings and Redskins.
Yes, Green Bay just got walloped by Arizona. Yes they have protection problems. Yes they have receiver issues. Yes their defense can be vulnerable. But they also have Aaron Rodgers.
Panthers fans should root for … A Carolina win over the Buccaneers to secure first place and home field advantage throughout. Despite the Panthers matching up well against the Seahawks (and beating them earlier this year), they’d probably prefer to avoid Seattle if possible. The best chance of that? Green Bay and Arizona winning Sunday, making Seattle the No. 6 seed going to Green Bay (where they lost earlier this year) and Minnesota the 5 at Washington. Hope Green Bay can beat Seattle and you get the Vikings or Redskins.
Cardinals fans should root for … The Panthers to lose and the Cardinals to win, giving Arizona the No. 1 seed. Beating Seattle and getting the No. 2 seed isn’t a bad consolation prize, however. Regardless of what happens in the Vikings-Packers game, Seattle isn’t coming to town in the divisional round as they’d be the No. 6 seed. Arizona would draw a matchup against the Packers, Redskins or Vikings if they secure the No. 2 seed. This is where we start to wonder if it’s better to be the No. 2 seed. (It’s not unless you’re petrified of Seattle.)
Packers fans should root for … A win over the Vikings to secure the division, a home playoff game and the No. 3 seed. Also pull for the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals, setting up an immediate rematch against the Vikings in Lambeau a week later in the playoffs.
Vikings fans should root for … Honestly, Vikings fans should root for a close loss against Green Bay that inspires confidence in the team and doesn’t result in any injuries. Worst case is the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and you’re back in Green Bay a week later. Best case you’re traveling to Washington. Winning the division automatically means hosting the Seahawks. Not ideal unless your defense magically gets healthy.
Redskins fans should root for … The Cardinals to beat the Seahawks because then Seattle isn’t walking through that door for a rematch of the 2012 playoff game. Also cheer for the Packers to beat the Vikings and then you’re hosting Minnesota in a grinder of a divisional round game and not dealing with Aaron Rodgers against your secondary.
Seahawks fans should root for … A win over Arizona. It automatically means not having to travel to Lambeau Field and instead being a significant favorite over either the Redskins or Vikings in a road playoff game. A Packers win means Washington, a Vikings win means Minnesota.
