What makes Sunday's NFC Championship game between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks so enticing is the fact both teams seem to have every ingredient necessary to win the Super Bowl.
Are they both hot? Hell yeah they're hot. Both teams have exactly one loss since the start of November. Here's a look at the NFL's best teams from the second half of the 2014 regular season:
| NFL's best teams from the second half of 2014 | ||
| Rank/Team | Record | Points dif. |
| 1. Seahawks | 7-1 | 112 |
| 1. Packers | 7-1 | 107 |
| 3. Patriots | 6-2 | 94 |
| 3. Broncos | 6-2 | 69 |
| 3. Cowboys | 6-2 | 68 |
Do they both have Super Bowl pedigree? I would say so, since they've won two of the past four Super Bowls. Seattle, of course, won 12 months ago. It's hard to believe it has been four years since the Packers beat the Steelers, but they've been in the second round of the playoffs in three of the four seasons since then.
Do they both have great quarterbacks? That's sort of a must nowadays, considering that between 2003 and 2011, all nine teams that won the Super Bowl were quarterbacked by guys named Brady, Brees, Manning, Roethlisberger or Rodgers. A look at the league's highest-rated passers since Russell Wilson came into the league in 2012:
| Top passers since 2012 | |
| Quarterback | Rating |
| 1. Aaron Rodgers | 108.9 |
| 2. Peyton Manning | 107.8 |
| 3. Drew Brees | 99.3 |
| 4. Russell Wilson | 98.6 |
| 5. Tony Romo | 98.6 |
Do they both have great quarterbacks who threw touchdown passes last week to players who share their surnames? Yes, yes they did. However, that's probably not a major factor.
Do they both have great playoff quarterbacks? The best, actually -- at least when it comes to passer rating.
| Highest-rated playoff passers in NFL history | |
| Rank/Player | Rating |
| 1. Russell Wilson | 109.6 |
| 2. Aaron Rodgers | 105.3 |
| 3. Bart Starr | 104.8 |
| 4. Kurt Warner | 102.8 |
| 5. Drew Brees | 100.7 |
| Min. 150 attempts | |
So yeah, it's kind of a good tilt. Let's elaborate while breaking down the matchup in both serious and non-serious fashion. Fifteen things to know:
1. Location, location, location
Turns out that Week 1 matchup between these teams, which was won handily by Seattle, mattered quite a bit. That's the reason why the Seahawks are hosting this game despite the fact both teams finished 12-4.
And that's huge, because as I mentioned in two separate articles last week, the Packers and Seahawks are both extremely good at home. That's bad news for the Packers, because it's hard to finish 12-4 as an "extremely good" home team and still manage to be a good road team.
Dating back to the start of 2012, the Seahawks have won 25 of 27 regular-season and playoff home games by an average of 15.4 points. Nobody else in football has been close to that dominant at home.
Meanwhile, the Packers were just 4-4 on the road this season ... and last season ... and the year before that. That's right, a simple 12-12 in their past 24 away games, with a 2012 road playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers tipping the scales below the .500 mark.
You'll recall, of course, that 36-16 Green Bay loss in Seattle to kick off the 2014 regular season. It's hard to fully use that against the Packers because the Seahawks were celebrating their Super Bowl victory in front of the 12th Man, but Green Bay was actually 0-3 this season against home teams that finished with winning records.
In fact, dating back to the end of the 2012 season, the Packers have actually lost seven consecutive games against winning teams on the road.
| Teams without a road win against a winning team, past two years | |
| Team | Record on road vs. winning teams |
| Jaguars | 0-9 |
| Raiders | 0-9 |
| Falcons | 0-8 |
| Jets | 0-8 |
| Lions | 0-6 |
| Ravens | 0-6 |
| Packers | 0-5 |
| Vikings | 0-5-1 |
Rodgers has thrown only 11 interceptions the past two seasons, but all 11 of them have come on the road. Against the Legion of Boom and the league's highest-ranked defense, at CenturyLink Field, that could be problematic.
2. The most talked-about calf in the world
Making matters worse, Rodgers is dealing with a fairly significant calf injury. An ESPN report revealed last week that he actually had a slight tear in that left calf, which was aggravated in a Week 17 victory over the Lions.
That might explain why the All-Pro quarterback was limping noticeably throughout Sunday's divisional game against the Cowboys. But Rodgers managed to get through that victory without missing a snap and will undoubtedly play in Seattle.
"I think I've got 120 minutes left in me," Rodgers said Sunday. "So I'm going to do everything I can to make sure I can play all those minutes."
Assuming neither of their next two games goes to overtime, that's good news for Packers fans.
Rodgers didn't always look right against the Cowboys, and this Seattle defense -- which is sending four starters to the Pro Bowl -- is a lot better. Tom Pelisser of USA Today points out that Rodgers spent the entirety of that game in the shotgun, which is the type of trend the smart, aggressive Seahawks could exploit.
But you would be insane to underestimate the soon-to-be-two-time-MVP.
Again, he wasn't always himself last week when it came to accuracy and mobility in the pocket. Here's an awkward delivery on an overthrow to Randall Cobb in the first quarter:
And, with no ability to move around and buy space in the pocket, here's Rodgers on an overthrow to Davante Adams in the second quarter:
But Rodgers recovered and had a hell of a second half, completing 15 of 20 passes for 226 yards (11.3 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, no picks and a passer rating of 145.0.
That was highlighted by one of the tightest touchdown throws I've ever seen:
Rodgers has said the injury isn't getting any better, which makes sense considering this explanation from Lutul Farrow, an orthopedic surgeon with Cleveland Clinic Sports Health and a former team physician with the Browns, per Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
"What I tell my patients, my athletes, is when you have these injuries and they hurt and you play on them, it's kind of like peeling a scab.
"Every time you peel the scab it kind of resets some of the healing and takes longer to get better."
He only needs 120 minutes. But in order to buy the next 60, he'll likely have to be even better against Seattle, especially during the first 30.
3. Not all hot teams are created equal
As I stated, both the Packers and Seahawks are on fire. Green Bay has won eight of its past nine games while the Seahawks have won seven in a row. Considering that the Packers were just 5-3 at midseason and that Seattle started 3-3, that says a lot about their ability to "peak at the right time."
But the reality is that Seattle is the much hotter team.
The Packers were killing pretty much everyone they met between Week 4 and Week 11, but only two of Green Bay's past six victories came by more than six points. They struggled to take care of the Vikings, Patriots and Falcons down the stretch and were upset by a so-so Bills team in Week 15. They took care of business against the Buccaneers and Lions to close out the season but scored just 20 points in Tampa and were held to a tied-for-season-low-at-home 26 on Sunday against Dallas.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense finished the regular season on an unprecedented tear, giving up just 6.5 points per game during the final six weeks.
| Fewest points allowed during the final 6 weeks of a season | ||
| Team | Year | Total |
| Seahawks | 2014 | 39 |
| Titans | 2000 | 42 |
| Jets | 2009 | 47 |
| Steelers | 2011 | 48 |
| Vikings | 1988 | 54 |
| Since NFL adopted 16-game schedule in 1978 | ||
And don't think that's a schedule thing. They held Chip Kelly's Eagles to 14 and Colin Kaepernick's 49ers to 10 total points in two games. They gave up 17 points last week against Carolina, but the Panthers had averaged 27.6 points in their previous five games.
The Seahawks also got six defensive takeaways in the past two weeks and have scored 30-plus points in two of their past three games, while the Packers actually have a minus-1 turnover differential in the past four weeks.
| Where the Packers and Seahawks rank, past five weeks | ||
| Stat | Packers | Seahawks |
| Points dif. | 11th | 1st |
| Turnover margin | 8th | 2nd |
| Time of possession | 4th | 1st |
4. The ultimate matchup that might not happen: Rodgers vs. Sherman
By most measures, Rodgers is the best quarterback in the game and one of the greatest of all time. Few can dispute that, since he has the highest passer rating and touchdown-to-interception ratio in NFL history.
Also by most measures, Richard Sherman is the NFL's best cornerback. The three-time first-team All-Pro has graded out as a top-five corner at Pro Football Focus three years in a row, but he's also arguably playing his best football right now. During the final six weeks of the regular season, Sherman has allowed an opposing passer rating of just 15.2, which was easily the lowest mark in the NFL. He has given up only 10 catches since Week 12.
Call it the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao of the NFL, which strongly applies considering that Rodgers somehow found a way to completely duck Sherman in their Week 1 matchup.
Rodgers threw 33 passes that night and not a single one targeted Sherman. Instead, he completed nine of his 11 throws toward Byron Maxwell, who really is the Ringo Starr of the Legion of Boom (ask your parents, kids).
Maxwell continued to be somewhat vulnerable for the remainder of the season and is now battling back from what sounds like one hell of a cold and/or flu. His backup, Tharold Simon, was annihilated in coverage against the Panthers, which might only further incentivize Rodgers to deny the existence of Sherman yet again Sunday.
The problem is that even when he did that and picked on Maxwell in Week 1, the Packers were held to just 16 points in a double-digit loss.
The Packers insist there was no grand plan to avoid Sherman in Week 1, which is tough to believe considering how aggressive their offense usually is. Then again, although he was targeted at least twice in every other game he played this year, Sherman has been targeted one or zero times on six occasions since becoming a starter in 2011. So it's possible that was a coincidence.
In either case, the Packers would be smart to open things up Sunday. Sherman is good, but he's not immortal, especially against Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Cobb and Adams.
The Green Bay passing game became too one-dimensional in that previous matchup, with Jarrett Boykin getting no looks while draped by Sherman. Boykin isn't a special player, but Adams looks as though he might be. The rookie second-round pick caught seven passes for a team-high 117 yards against Dallas and he might be able to give Sherman a tough time on the right side while Nelson and Cobb do work elsewhere.
Rodgers can't afford to let Seattle's All-Pro safeties cheat. He has to keep this defense honest by trusting Adams (or whomever) and attacking Sherman when the right opportunities present themselves Sunday. Go big or go home.
5. Julius Peppers: The game's oldest X-factor
The Seahawks might have four Pro Bowl defenders and seven defensive players ranked in the top 13 at their positions by Pro Football Focus. They might have a defense that has given up the fewest points in the league in each of the past three seasons.
But the Packers have three wisemen.
Think about the big-game experience being brought to the table by 28-year-old Clay Matthews, 31-year-old Tramon Williams and Julius Peppers, who will be celebrating his 35th birthday Sunday in Seattle.
Matthews has become one of the most versatile linebackers in the league, especially with his ability to move inside and defend the run. Williams has his WTF moments but has been a reliable member of that secondary for five years running. Peppers is the new old guy, and while the eight-time Pro Bowl selection might no longer get the snaps or the sacks he used to, he's on a bit of a tear entering this game.
The 13-year veteran has three sacks, three forced fumbles and a PFF grade of 9.0 in his past three games. And this strip of DeMarco Murray might be the only reason the Packers are alive right now:
Now Peppers the pass-rusher has the ultimate mismatch against Seahawks right tackle Justin Britt, who is dealing with a knee injury and was ranked seventh-to-last in the league by PFF in terms of pass-blocking efficiency.
Britt had better hope he doesn't get the Oniel Cousins treatment:
You just get the feeling Peppers knows this is his chance to get a ring before it's all over. He looks inspired, which could help this underrated Green Bay defense hang in there.
6. Packers no longer have to worry about Harvin
This Green Bay D didn't exactly "hang in there" in that Week 1 meeting, but it is important to note that the Packers have clearly improved on that side of the ball. In fact, during the final three weeks of the season, they weren't far out of Seattle's range.
| Green Bay's defense | ||
| Where they ranked during the final 3 weeks of 2014 | Packers | Seahawks |
| Points allowed | 4th | 1st |
| Yards allowed | 1st | 2nd |
| Takeaways | 22nd | 12th |
| Sacks | 3rd | 1st |
It'll also help that in this game, the Packers won't have to deal with jack-of-all-trades receiver Percy Harvin, who was traded to the Jets midway through the season. Harvin not only had 100 yards on only 11 offensive touches (including over 10 yards per carry on four rushing attempts) against the Packers in Week 1, but he was also a constant distraction as a threat on jet sweep plays and misdirection concepts.
However, the Packers aren't off the hook. They'll still have their hands full with Wilson, who is a great passer but also rushed for the fifth-highest quarterback yardage total in modern NFL history during the 2014 regular season.
| Most QB rushing yards in NFL history | |||
| Rank/Player | Season | Yards | YPA |
| 1. Michael Vick | 2006 | 1,039 | 8.45 |
| 2. Bobby Douglass | 1972 | 968 | 6.87 |
| 3. Randall Cunningham | 1990 | 942 | 7.98 |
| 4. Michael Vick | 2004 | 902 | 7.52 |
| 5. Russell Wilson | 2014 | 849 | 7.19 |
| 6. Robert Griffin | 2012 | 815 | 6.79 |
| 7. Michael Vick | 2002 | 777 | 6.88 |
| 8. Cam Newton | 2012 | 741 | 5.83 |
| 9. Cam Newton | 2011 | 706 | 5.6 |
| 10. Michael Vick | 2010 | 676 | 6.76 |
| Super Bowl era (1966-present) | |||
7. But can they stop Beast Mode?
Stopping Marshawn Lynch will be yet another task for that D, which is vulnerable against the run. They allowed DeMarco Murray and Joseph Randle to rush for 138 yards on 27 carries last week and they ranked 23rd in that category during the regular season.
Lynch had 110 yards on 20 carries in Week 1, and that wasn't even his sweet spot on the schedule. Mr. January (think I can get it to catch on?) has gone for more than 100 yards in four of his eight career playoff games and has had at least 130 rushing yards in one game in each of his past three playoff runs, which is something only seven other backs have accomplished in NFL history.
He also has four 25-yard playoff runs. Only two other backs this century have more than one.
Lynch, of course, is famous for blowing through tackles. And while Green Bay struggled with missed tackles early (it missed a ridiculous 18 against Seattle in Week 1), the Packers have just 12 missed tackles in their past three games.
That D has evolved. The Packers are no longer relying on guys like A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, while fellow front-seven defender Letroy Guion has come around. Ultimately, the Packers surrendered only five 20-yard runs, the second-lowest mark in the league, and were rated by Football Outsiders as the best open-field run defense in football.
Still, this is Marshawn Lynch in the playoffs.
"We're going to have to swarm and tackle him," Peppers said this week of Lynch, who broke a ridiculous nine tackles in that first meeting. "He's a great back, a real physical runner. We're going to have to get a lot of bodies to him and get a lot of hits on him. He's the heart of that team, so we have to try to get to him and take him down."
8. Kam Chancellor is the third-best player in that secondary?
It's amazing how often you hear about Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas compared to Kam Chancellor, who is a three-time Pro Bowl pick but is still considered to be the third-best member of this stacked secondary.
Chancellor is a heavy hitter and a playmaker, and it also seems as though he does those things best in big moments. Hence, his huge performance against Carolina in the divisional playoffs.
After dealing with hip, ankle and groin injuries for the majority of the season, Chancellor began to hit his stride in November and December before exploding with a nine-tackle, seven-stop performance against the Panthers.
He put the icing on the cake with a fourth-quarter pick-six:
But he also blocked consecutive field goals (both negated by unrelated penalties) by leaping over the Carolina offensive line, and those seven stops -- defined by PFF as tackles which constitute an offensive failure -- were a career high.
Just one sample:
They'll need him at his best against Rodgers and Co., especially when you consider that Packers running back Eddie Lacy has improved greatly since that first matchup.
| Eddie Lacy, 2014 | ||
| Stat | First 9 games | Final 7 games |
| Yards/game | 53.1 | 94.4 |
| Yards/carry | 4 | 5.2 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 5 |
9. Seahawks breaking the post-Super Bowl curse?
During the first 39 years of the Super Bowl era, eight teams successfully defended their titles. In nearly a decade since the Patriots did that in 2004, zero have been able to accomplish the feat. In fact, before Seattle beat Carolina last week, a defending Super Bowl champion hadn't won a playoff game since 2005.
So Seattle has already broken one curse and is now favored to break the much bigger one, which would prevent us from reaching the longest stretch in NFL history without repeat champions (dating all the way back to when the Canton Bulldogs won back-to-back titles in 1922 and 1923).
But there's a new curse to worry about, because as ESPN.com's Terry Blount points out, "each of the last four times that both conference title games featured touchdown or more favorites, dating back to 1998, one of the favorites lost outright."
Atlanta beat Minnesota as an 11-point underdog while the Broncos beat the Jets as a nine-point favorite in 1998. Tennessee beat Jacksonville as a 7-point underdog while the Rams beat the Bucs as a 14-point favorite in 1999. The Patriots beat the Steelers as a 10-point underdog in 2001 while Rams beat the Eagles as an 11-point favorite. The Giants beat the Packers as 7.5-point underdogs in 2007 while the Patriots beat the Chargers as 14-point favorites.
Maybe this won't matter, because the line for Indianapolis-New England has at certain times and in certain places dropped below seven. But in case it does, the Seahawks had better hope the curse comes to an end or the Patriots have a bad day.
10. Advanced stat of the week
According to ESPN, the Seahawks led the NFL this season in explosive plays on offense while also having the fewest explosive plays allowed on defense. That's gotta be the mark of a fantastic team.
Explosive plays, by the way, include any pass of 16 yards or more and any run of 12 yards or more.
11. Under-the-radar stats of the week
Two amazing stats from this game's two quarterbacks:
First, on Rodgers' final 10 pass attempts Sunday against Dallas, he was 10 for 10 for 163 yards (16.3 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, no picks and a passer rating of -- you guessed it -- 158.3.
But this might be even more impressive. On third down against the Panthers, Wilson was 8 of 8 for 199 yards (24.9 freakin' yards per attempt), three touchdowns, zero picks and -- of course -- a passer rating of 158.3. All three of his touchdowns came on third-and-7 or longer, and he also had a 33-yard completion to Jermaine Kearse on a third-and-12.
12. Injuries to watch
Both teams are really healthy, which might help explain why they are where they are. Rodgers has to be monitored, but he'll play. Green Bay Pro Bowl guard Josh Sitton was limited in practice to start the week with a toe injury, but he has been playing through it.
I mentioned that knee injury for Britt. That's new and something to watch because he was out of practice to start the week, as was defensive tackle Tony McDaniel (shoulder). On the bright side for the Seahawks, it looks like center Max Unger is good to go despite possibly re-injuring his ankle late against Carolina.
13. Totally useless but sometimes fascinating historical notes
Some indisputable facts, most or all of which will have no impact on Saturday's game:
•The Seahawks have won back-to-back meetings, both of which took place in Seattle. They've won four of six all-time meetings at home, but the Packers lead the all-time series 8-7.
•This marks the first time they've ever met in Seattle in the playoffs. The Packers beat the Seahawks at home in the 2007 divisional playoffs and the 2003 wild-card playoffs.
•Since the Seahawks became a franchise in 1976, the Packers have won 19 playoff games while Seattle has won 13. Green Bay has been to three Super Bowls, winning two. Seattle has been to two, winning one.
14. But which city is cooler?
In case your team loses, let's give you a chance to say you live in the cooler metropolis. Just drop this on your football frenemies:
| Green Bay vs. Seattle: Which city is cooler? | |||
| CITY | GREEN BAY | SEATTLE | WINNER |
| Best claim to fame | The Packers, cheese | Rain, Starbucks, grunge? | Green Bay |
| Celebrities | Tony Shalhoub | Kurt Cobain, Jimi Hendrix, Rainn Wilson | Seattle |
| Hottest celebrity | Jessica Szohr (from Milwaukee) | Bianca Kajlich | Tie |
| Last call | 2:30 a.m. | 2 a.m. | Green Bay |
| Nickname | Titletown, USA | Emerald City | Green Bay |
15. Prediction: Rodgers' injury will catch up to him
Playing through pain will be a thousand times tougher against the NFL's best and hottest defense, especially on the road. The Packers are hot, but the Seahawks are hotter and have one hell of a home-field advantage. They'll get back to the Super Bowl, maybe even with a blowout.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007. You can also read his work at Bleacher Report, Awful Announcing and This Given Sunday. In order to sound more professional, he wrote this blurb in the third person. Follow him on Twitter. Or don't. It's entirely your choice.
