The 2014 NFL Draft class is a hot topic lately, primarily thanks to the massive contract signed by Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders. It's the first extension given to any quarterback in this class, during the first offseason in which the players from 2014 were eligible to receive extensions.
Which got us thinking: Wow do the quarterbacks in this draft class slot out if you were picking them today? To be sure, they do not slot out in the same way they were drafted.
The gist of this exercise was basically whether a team would trade Player X for Player Y while sorting the quarterbacks out into tiers. The other lesson that's sort of popped up through all of this? We've had a nice little run the last few years drafting quarterbacks after a pretty bad stretch there where not many emerged.
2013 was an unmitigated disaster, obviously, and 2014 doesn't look great right now, but it did produce at least one guy who looks like a franchise quarterback as of this writing. Let's get to the ranking. Yell at me on Twitter @WillBrinson if you hate something.
Franchise quarterback
1. Derek Carr, Raiders
It's pretty remarkable what a blowout this choice is, that Carr is the only guy you would absolutely be willing to give millions of dollars to be your quarterback for the short- and long-term. The Raiders did just that recently, handing him $125 million over five years; the exact guarantees and contract details can be debated, but Oakland ponied up in a big way as soon as Carr was eligible to be paid and ensured he would be their franchise quarterback for a long time.
There were many people who did not love Carr coming out of Fresno State. (That includes me, and Raiders fans relish reminding me about it. Being wrong is part of the gig. I was wrong on Carr.) Part of it was the lack of success his brother had at the NFL level -- that's probably half the reasons the Texans couldn't take him with their first pick in the second round, much less the first pick overall.
But if you went back and redid the 2014 NFL Draft, Carr would be a no-brainer No. 1 overall pick because of the position he plays. That's pretty impressive considering this is a draft that features Odell Beckham, Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack and Mike Evans. Looking back over the last half decade as a whole, Carr would not be the first quarterback taken but he would be one of the top five along with Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.
If you want to extend it all the way back to the 2007 draft, Carr would still be a top-10 guy in terms of quarterbacks over that time span; he is 11th overall in touchdowns thrown by all quarterbacks drafted since 2007. Only Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Luck, Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez have more. All of those guys have, at minimum, a two-year head start on Carr.
He is very much in a class by himself here, even if living up to the expectations of 12 wins last year and a $125 million offseason, all while coming off a broken leg, are going to be extremely difficult.
The ultimate temptation
2. Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots
If Garoppolo played for any other team that was refusing to give him up in a trade involving multiple first-round picks, he wouldn't be here. It's the fact that the Patriots refuse to let him go, even if it's simply as an insurance policy for a 40-year-old Tom Brady, that makes him so enticing.
We saw what Jimmy G is capable of doing on the field in two starts last year, when he completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 502 yards and four touchdowns in what can only be described as an impressive regular season debut as starter while filling in for a suspended Tom Brady.
By all accounts the Cleveland Browns were willing to give up multiple high picks in order to acquire Garoppolo this offseason and yet the Patriots had, by all accounts, zero interest in dealing their backup quarterback, even though Garoppolo has just a single year left on his rookie contract.
If New England wants to keep him around past 2017, it will require either using the franchise tag or negotiating what promises to be a tricky contract: both Brady and Garoppolo are represented by the same agent (Don Yee), and Brady wants to play until he's 45 years old. If Brady realizes that dream, or even gets halfway there, Garoppolo might sign a contract that restricts him from actually playing football for a few years. Taking over for Brady while continuing to work with Belichick might be worth the gamble on his part, but it's just hard to imagine a competitive quarterback being willing to wait out that opportunity. It's also a difficult use of the Patriots' salary cap space if they want to continue to challenge for Super Bowl titles.
There is no telling where Garoppolo would slot in terms of quarterbacks taken in the last decade, because we just don't know enough about him. But it's very obvious where he slots in terms of the quarterbacks drafted in 2014. He is a question mark, but one that feels like a gamble worth taking.
Big question marks
3. Blake Bortles, Jaguars
Do you trust doctors to fix Teddy Bridgewater more than you trust Doug Marrone to fix Bortles? That's the question you have to ask yourself when ranking the third and fourth quarterbacks on this list. But from the perspective of looking at this list right now, Bortles has to get the edge, primarily because he's not injured.
Bortles would have been in discussion for the second spot on this list before the 2016 season after a strong sophomore year that featured him throwing 35 touchdowns. He gets the third spot in the ranking right now because the Jaguars will find out with some certainty whether they want to keep Bortles around after the 2017 season. Neither he nor Bridgewater are signed past this year because the Jags and Vikings declined to pick up their respective fifth-year options. The difference is that, barring a Sam Bradford injury, the Vikes won't be able to see what Bridgewater can do from a health standpoint. The Jaguars will have an answer on Bortles, good or bad.
Then Bortles fell off a cliff in 2016, one of the most horrific seasons you will ever see from a young quarterback. Critics will point to 2015 as a year where Bortles simply piled up garbage time stats courtesy of the Jaguars trailing. There's fairness to that charge but the drop from Bortles' performance from 2015 to 2016 was not about hidden garbage time stats.
What we saw in 2016 was a quarterback who looked lost mechanically -- Bortles yards per attempt average dropped by nearly a full yard and his average yards per game dropped by 30 yards. He was sacked 17 less times than his league-leading 51 in 2015, but he still managed to set the NFL record for most pick-sixes in a quarterbacks first three seasons. That includes this horrific throw:
🚨🚨 PICK-6 ALERT! 🚨🚨@BradRoby_1 takes Blake Bortles' pass to the HOUSE. #DENvsJAX https://t.co/zbTkpMPscR
— NFL (@NFL) December 4, 2016
Things got so bad for Bortles he couldn't even throw the ball away without throwing an interception, which happened when tried to throw away a screen pass to T.J. Yeldon's feet and had the ball bounce into the air.
So at least there was a little bad luck involved. There was also some hope for 2017: in the final two games of 2016, after Doug Marrone took over as interim coach, Bortles completed more than 66 percent of his passes for 626 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
No one is buying that as offseason momentum for the following season, but Marrone being in charge of his development is something if you're grasping for straws.
4. Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings
Bridgewater would have been at the top of this list a year ago, which says a lot both about the volatility of judging young quarterbacks and the severity of the injury he suffered during Vikings training camp. Teammates were reportedly getting upset emotionally and physically after seeing Bridgewater blow out his knee, and it is widely assumed that he will not be a productive quarterback during the 2017 season. The Vikings will continue to roll with Sam Bradford -- if Bridgewater is able to play, that's a pretty big bonus.
But this class has taken a nosedive in the last 18 months, and there is at least upside with Bridgewater in terms of being able to get back to good health and potentially being a capable starting quarterback. He never had the highest ceiling of the guys in this class, but he did navigate the Vikings to the playoffs in just the second season of his career despite dealing with a limited number of weapons on the offensive side and a questionable offensive line.
The Vikings did not pick up Bridgewater's 2018 fifth-year option, but that was a necessity given the nature of his injury. They'll assess how Bradford looks in 2017 (some folks have high hopes for him) and simultaneously judge Bridgewater's health before deciding how to progress. If we knew that Bridgewater was going to be healthy and could play, he would likely jump to No. 2 on this list.
5. AJ McCarron, Bengals
If Rick Smith called Duke Tobin and asked to swap Tom Savage for McCarron, Tobin isn't hanging up the phone, but he is chuckling and hanging up. That being said, no one is going to give up a first-round pick for McCarron either, no matter how many times he compares himself to Tom Brady.
McCarron rarely gets run because he's the backup to a pretty reliable starting quarterback in Andy Dalton, although when Dalton went down with an injury in 2015, McCarron stepped in and played well. He completed just over 66 percent of his passes and threw for 832 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions in four starts. He wasn't quite as prolific in the Bengals' playoff loss to the Steelers, but Cincy would have gotten its first playoff win under Marvin Lewis if Vontaze Burfict hadn't lost his cool.
He probably is not going to become the next Brady, but McCarron is a very serviceable backup with some upside. There are plenty of NFL teams that would sign up to have him starting for them right now. If you were a real sick puppy, you could make a case that McCarron belongs at No. 3 on this list.
6. Tom Savage, Texans
A fourth-round pick out of Pittsburgh who was the rumor du jour leading up the draft (Savage was invited to the draft, and there was chatter about Savage going in the first round and the Patriots calling him "Tom No. 2"), Savage has been thrust into the starting lineup at times and actually performed fairly admirably. Most notably was the two-game stretch down in December of 2016 when Savage completed more than 63 percent of his passes, threw for 436 yards and didn't throw a single pick.
You might think the lack of touchdowns renders the stretch irrelevant, but then you probably did not want Brock Osweiler last year. Savage perhaps was not the answer for the franchise -- or clearly not the answer, since the Texans drafted Deshaun Watson this offseason with a first-round pick -- but he was, somehow, an upgrade over the incumbent starter and helped propel Houston to the postseason.
Savage is currently listed as the starter for Houston in 2017 and Bill O'Brien is adamant he will start for them. No one believes O'Brien, and no one is going to believe O'Brien until Savage is actually under center taking snaps in Week 1.
Non-Jaguar JAGS
7. David Fales, Dolphins
Fales has all of four career passing attempts and, despite being drafted during the 2014 NFL Draft, is already 26 years old. He's been with the quarterback-needy Bears for multiple years and now landed in Miami. It's an uphill battle for him to even compete against Matt Moore for the second string spot, though he does have experience with Adam Gase's offense, which should be a plus.
8. Garrett Gilbert, Panthers
Gilbert was signed by the Panthers because of Cam Newton's shoulder injury, a guy who can give them another body in the offseason. He is a huge longshot to make the roster, with Derek Anderson firmly entrenched as the backup behind Newton, who appears on track to be physically ready to play and throw when camp kicks off.
Current free agents
9. Johnny Manziel
Manziel's trails and travails are well documented. He is a longshot to make an NFL roster before the 2018 season, much less the 2017 season. By all accounts he's working out and keeping clean these days, which is good. But he's got a long road before he can get back in the league.
The difference here is that he does have some upside (maybe?), has looked good (sort of?) at times when he played and will probably (possibly?) get a look from someone if he ever gets back.
10. Zach Mettenberger
There are way too many starts on the book with too little success to believe that he's ever going to put it together and produce on the NFL level. Mettenberger does have the physical tools, however. And a killer mustache.
Zach Mettenberger's mustache just threw its first TD!! pic.twitter.com/GjBdLWomIq
— SportsNation (@SportsNation) October 26, 2014
11. Aaron Murray
Drafted by the Chiefs, Murray only stuck around for two years before bouncing around onto various practice squads (Arizona, Philadelphia and the Rams) over the past two years. He has never attempted a pass in the NFL and is currently a free agent.
12. Tajh Boyd
The only reason that Boyd, who has never thrown an NFL pass, is higher on this list is because of the Clemson pedigree. It's pretty amazing when you look back at the talent surrounding the last few quarterbacks that came out of Clemson.
13. Keith Wenning
Bumping Boyd down because of the Ball State factor, even though he was actually taken 19 spots ahead of Boyd. Neither guy is a viable NFL quarterback.
No longer a quarterback
14. Logan Thomas, Bills
There was a pretty general consensus that Thomas, an athletic marvel coming out of Virginia Tech, would need to switch to a different position once he made it to the NFL because of concerns about his accuracy and general ability to operate a pro-style offense. Those fears were warranted and Thomas has now switched to the position of tight end.
The Bills, who aren't exactly loaded at the quarterback position (no offense, Tyrod Taylor) took a shot on him at his new position. No one would take him as a quarterback if we held the draft again today.
