Risers and Fallers
Updated on April 9, 2007
With most of the Pro Day workouts over, scouts are making their final preparations for the draft. NFL teams would like their fans to think that draft boards have been settled by now. In reality, scouts are spending these last few weeks checking and re-checking the film of players of potential interest.
Sometimes players can make significant leaps or drops up the board in these final few weeks. A perfect example occurred last year with Ohio State defensive back Donte Whitner.
Whitner left Ohio State as a junior amid the expectations that he'd be a late first- to mid second-round pick. After spectacular workouts, teams began looking more closely at his film. Though he had been a full-time starter for only one season, scouts saw him as an ascending prospect. Furthermore, while Whitner had only played strong safety with the Buckeyes, he looked so smooth in workouts that some teams began grading him as a cornerback. Over the month and a half between his March 8 Pro Day and the draft, Whitner's stock continually gained momentum.
A possible second-round pick only a few months earlier, Whitner was selected with the eight overall pick by the Buffalo Bills.
In this week's edition of Risers & Fallers, I list the players who, like Whitner last year, are moving up and down the board as scouts get a better handle on their athletic potential.
This week's Risers & Fallers:
| Risers & Fallers |
1.  Jon Beason, OLB, Miami (Fla.): Beason had a personal Pro Day workout for scouts on April 5, and his performance there has his stock, already rising, potentially moving him to the top of the outside linebacker class. Though undersized at 6-feet, 233 pounds, Beason's combination of athleticism and versatility has scouts comparing him to Detroit second-year linebacker Ernie Sims. Sims, you may recall, was ranked by most as the third or fourth best outside linebacker of the 2006 class and a mid to late first-round pick. However, in the weeks leading up to the draft, his stock inexplicably began to rise, ultimately resulting with the Lions taking him ninth overall. Sims, a 16-game starter, went on to lead the Lions with 144 tackles, finishing tied for 12th in the NFL. In clocking in at 4.62 seconds in the 40-yard dash and posting solid numbers in the broad (10-feet) and vertical jumps (32.5"), Beason could take advantage of a weak linebacker crop and be on the verge of a similar late rise. |
| 2. Brandon Meriweather, FS, Miami (Fla.): Beason isn't the only former Hurricane creating a stir among scouts as the draft approaches. Certainly because of their great history in producing elite NFL talent, it is quite rare that a former Hurricane can enter the draft as an underrated prospect, but that is exactly how Meriweather is viewed by many scouts. Meriweather's off-field incidents will keep the talented safety from moving up as far as his athleticism warrants. On the field, Meriweather's combination of hitting ability, range and quickness allow him to not only stand out as a free safety, but he's capable of playing cornerback as well. The last safety I scouted at the Senior Bowl who stood out as consistently as Meriweather did a few months ago was another undersized playmaker: former Iowa strong safety Bob Sanders. I envision Meriweather developing into a similar performer at the next level, except as a free safety. |
| 3. Craig Davis, WR, LSU: Quite simply, if Davis hadn't toiled in the significant shadow cast by Dwayne Bowe at LSU, he'd be considered a first-round pick. The rock-solid 6-1, 200-pound Davis has excellent speed and is viewed by many scouts as having more potential than many of the so-called big name receivers expected to be selected ahead of him. Davis may lack the big name, but don't expect him to last on the board long. He'll almost surely be among the first 10 players drafted in the second round. Davis is a particularly good fit in the West Coast Offense. |
| 4. Kevin Boss, TE, Western Oregon: With all of the talk at tight end centering around underclassmen Greg Olsen (Miami, Fla.) and Zach Miller (Arizona State), Boss has quietly been charging up the board. A former basketball player, the 6-7 tight end showed good speed (4.71) at his Pro Day and is recognized by scouts for his soft hands and reliable route-running. Boss is making his late charge up the board after missing the second half of the 2006 season with a shoulder injury. Now healthy, he not only will be drafted before some big names, he has an outside chance of hearing his name called on the first day of the draft. |
| 5. Mike Otto, OT, Purdue: It is certainly understandable if Otto feels a bit unappreciated. After all, the record holder at Purdue with 50 career starts rarely earned much national acclaim, and the highest conference honors he ever earned was second-team accolades as a senior. Playing in the Big Ten with both Wisconsin's Joe Thomas and Penn State's Levi Brown will do that to a guy. He needs to add strength, but Otto has the combination of quick feet, long arms and good balance to be a solid pro at the next level. Back in 2001, there was another underrated, undersized left tackle from Purdue who enjoyed a steady late rise up the board. Since being drafted in the second round, Matt Light has started 79 games and helped the New England Patriots win three Super Bowls. |
1.  Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn State: Posluszny remains the top outside linebacker available on many teams' draft boards, and with the position being one of high value, many theorize that the All-American is naturally viewed as a top 15 pick. In reality, Posluszny is slotted in the 20-30 range on the boards of many teams. NFLDraftScout.com lists him as the 22nd overall prospect. While he plays with terrific instincts and is among the draft's soundest open-field tacklers, concerns remain about his athleticism in coverage. Scouts are quick to question how they can rationalize using a first-round pick on a linebacker who may have to be substituted for on passing situations. |
| 2. Rufus Alexander, OLB, Oklahoma: Another big-name linebacker feeling the sting of an overall weak class. Alexander's draft stock may have peaked back in December when he was voted the Big 12's Defensive Player of the Year. Since then, Alexander failed to stand out at the Senior Bowl and ran a rather pedestrian 4.79 at the Combine. Scouts question if Alexander isn't simply another in a long line of All-American Sooner linebackers who fail to live up to expectations at the NFL level. |
| 3. Scott Chandler, TE, Iowa: The first thing scouts mention about Chandler is that he is a former wide receiver, leaving many imagining him as a reliable pass catcher with rare speed. Unfortunately, while Chandler does possess good hands, his speed, or rather lack thereof, is a liability. Chandler disappointed at the Combine with a 4.78 40-yard dash. He was even slower at his Pro Day, timing out at 4.87. The other unfortunate reality about a wide receiver morphing into a tight end is they typically lack strength, technique and the passion for blocking. This holds true in Chandler's case. His 16 lifts of 225 pounds at the Combine (17 at his Pro Day) didn't alleviate scouts' concerns about his upper body strength. For much of last season Chandler was considered the best of a poor senior crop of tight ends. Some feel he is now firmly entrenched in the middle of a poor class. |
| 4. Courtney Taylor, WR, Auburn: Just as some are over-ranking players at weak positions, others may fall further than expected simply because the position they play is loaded. Taylor leaves Auburn as the program's record holder with 153 career receptions and is fourth on the list with 2,098 career receiving yards. While he is a solid route-runner and had reliable hands, Taylor lacks downfield speed and the explosiveness to gain separation against quality defensive backs. In a typical draft class, Taylor's production would almost surely win out, resulting in a second- to third-round selection. This year, with more than a dozen wide receivers thought to be better prospects, Taylor could slide into the late third round or even further. |
| 5. Aaron Rouse, SS, Virginia Tech: One of the surprises of last year's draft was the drop of former Southern California star Darnell Bing to the fourth round. A strong safety with the Trojans, Bing was projected as a solid second-round choice. Scouts, however, questioned if Bing had the athleticism to play in deep coverage at the NFL level. The Raiders selected Bing in the fourth round and immediately announced plans to convert him to an outside linebacker. A similar sentiment seems to be building around Rouse, who had been projected by National and BLESTO as having 4.4 or even 4.3 speed, but instead timed out in the high 4.5s at the Combine. Rouse, 6-4 and 223 pounds, certainly has the size and physicality to be successful as a linebacker, but teams are generally looking for immediate impact players in the first two rounds, meaning Rouse, like Bing last year, could slip a bit. |
Rob Rang is a Senior Analyst for NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange.
