Risers and Fallers
Updated on April 23, 2007
There isn't a better time to be rising on draft boards -- or worse time to be falling -- than in the final days leading up to the draft.
NFL teams have spent the past year in an exhaustive search for new talent. Most clubs finalized their boards this past weekend, but the rankings aren't locked until draft day. Private workouts and interviews, as well as late-breaking medical or character news, can send a player's stock soaring or tumbling in these final few days.
Questions surrounding Michigan defensive tackle Alan Branch's health, for example, could send the run-stuffer into the mid or even late first round when he has long been considered a likely top 10 selection.
The focus in the final Risers & Fallers is on many of the biggest names in this year's draft class:
| Risers & Fallers |
1.  Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame: LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell remains the favorite to be the first overall pick, but don't think for a second that the Raiders aren't still considering Quinn. While he may lack Russell's upside, the heady and more accurate Quinn is considered a safer pick. For Quinn, a 46-game starter for the most high profile team in all of collegiate sports, mental toughness and charisma are considered two of his greatest strengths. Certainly, personality won't overcome physical limitations, but for players ranked as closely as Russell and Quinn are by many teams, vocal leadership is one of Quinn's advantages. For Oakland and Cleveland, specifically, Quinn could provide the face to the franchise both teams are desperately searching for. |
| 2. David Harris, ILB, Michigan: The more scouts watch film of Harris the more they realize he was the primary reason for Michigan's dominant run defense in 2006. Under Harris' leadership, the Wolverines led the nation in rush defense, allowing just 43.38 yards per game, the lowest season total by a Division 1-A team since the 1993 University of Arizona defense gave up 30.1 yards per game. Despite two potential top 10 picks in Leon Hall and Alan Branch, it was Harris who shared the Bo Schembechler Most Valuable Player Award honors with tailback Mike Hart. Considered the most physical run-stuffing linebacker in the draft, Harris' stock is skyrocketing. |
| 3. Michael Bush, RB, Louisville: A letter by highly respected surgeon Dr. James Andrews describing Bush as 99 percent recovered from his second leg surgery is easing teams' concerns. Bush was lost for the 2006 season after only playing one half of football in 2006. In that half (against Kentucky), Bush ran for 128 yards and three touchdowns. These numbers were hardly a surprise considering Bush, who started only eight games in 2005, was voted First Team all-conference with 1,143 yards and a school record 23 scores. If healthy, Bush is the most dynamic of a stronger-than-advertised crop of big backs. |
| 4. Zach Miller, TE, Arizona State: Though Miami junior Greg Olsen gets all of the attention, it might surprise readers to know just how many teams rank Miller as the top tight end in the draft. While he lacks Olsen's speed, Miller's soft hands and good route-running stand out on film. He also is a better blocker than Olsen and appears more willing to put in the time to develop in this area. In 35 games at Arizona State, Miller caught at least one pass in 33 of those contests and finished his career with 144 receptions for 1,512 yards with 14 touchdowns. |
| 5. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State: Gonzalez may lack teammate Ted Ginn's big name, but there are many teams who feel he is the surer NFL receiver. Referring to his more reliable route-running, hands and toughness, teams feel Gonzalez has the ability to be a consistent threat in the NFL, and because of his technique he may be able to do it more quickly than most of the receivers selected ahead of him. Gonzalez's high character grades are also getting scouts' attention as the Rhodes Scholar candidate recently announced he will donate a portion of his off-field income from autograph shows and endorsements to two charities -- the American Cancer Society and the Arrupe Neighborhood Partnership Program at St. Ignatius High School. |
1.  Alan Branch, DT, Michigan: NFLDraftScout.com has been able to confirm through conversations with sources from four teams that there is validity to the rumors that Branch has stress fractures in both legs. Just how far this news will drop him remains a question, however. Of the four teams queried, two classified the injury as tibia fractures. The other two characterized the injury as shin splints. Once considered a likely top 10 pick, Branch is too talented to drop too far, but he appears more likely to land somewhere between 11 and 20 now. |
| 2. Greg Olsen, TE, Miami: There remain some teams who are smitten with Olsen's ability to attack the middle with his speed, but the more time teams spend comparing this former Hurricanes' routes and hands to former Miami tight ends of the past, the more they come away disappointed. Olsen, in the eyes of one NFL scout I spoke with, "... is basically a big receiver. He gives you nothing in terms of blocking." It also should be noted that Olsen's career numbers are surprisingly low for a prospect considered to be such a playmaker. Olsen started 26 of the 33 games in which he played for the Hurricanes. During that time he totaled only 87 receptions for 1,215 yards, and six touchdowns. |
| 3. JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU: With so much time between the Combine and the draft, all of the top prospects are bound to be picked apart until warts show up. In what could turn out to be another case of paralysis by analysis, concerns are beginning to arise about Russell's ability to handle the leadership requirements of being the top pick. If Russell isn't drafted first overall by the Raiders, he could slip to Cleveland at No. 3. Despite all of the positive words by Cleveland GM Phil Savage, there remains some talk that the Browns might also pass if Russell was available. In that scenario, Minnesota and Miami would likely be exploring all options to move up. |
| 4. Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin: Like Russell, the time between the Combine and the draft has given teams too much time to overanalyze Thomas. Long viewed as one of the safer picks in the draft, Thomas is ranked as the second best tackle (behind Penn State's Levi Brown) on a surprising number of boards. There are some who believe Arizona may select Brown, the better run blocker, over Thomas if both are available at No. 5 overall. |
| 5. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State: With his abysmal performance in the National Championship game, Smith's star began to lose its luster with NFL scouts. Inconsistent performances at the Senior Bowl and Combine dropped him more. Now teams are buzzing about the disappointing attitude and football intelligence Smith is showing in private workouts, causing his stock to tumble even further. Smith, who once had some scouts viewing him as a potential first-round prospect, now is likely a second day pick. |
Rob Rang is a Senior Analyst for NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange.
