AFC East Preview
Lost in all the talk and hype about how the new receivers in New England, including Randy Moss, will amp up the Patriots' chances of getting back to the Super Bowl are two important facts.
One is the Patriots didn't exactly struggle to throw the football last season, finishing 11th in passing yards. Tom Brady threw for 3,529 and had a completion percentage of 61.8 percent throwing to a bunch of castoffs from other teams.
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| Is Tedy Bruschi part of an old issue in New England? (AP) |
That's almost unbelievable.
The Colts didn't get stopped once in the second half of their AFC Championship Game victory. The 34 points scored by the Patriots should have been enough to get them to the Super Bowl. But it happened to be four fewer than what Manning and his offense got.
So before sticking the Patriots back in that game next February because of new offensive additions, just remember the defense is what cost them last season. Some speculated that it was some sort of virus that sapped the life out of the Patriots defenders that day, a claim never backed up by any of players.
You know what did them in? That common disease we know as old age.
Their linebackers, especially veterans Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel, looked slow. And they're both penciled in as starters this year. The Patriots did sign Adalius Thomas as a high-priced free agent to help, but he's 30 -- and looks like he weighs 285, not exactly speed weight.
In the past, Belichick has been able to hide weaknesses with his ability to out-scheme most everyone on the other side of the ball. But it's pretty damn hard to hide an aging player, so it will challenge even for the best coach in football.
Despite those troubles, the Patriots are still the odds-on favorite to win the AFC East. They should own a division with young teams on their way up.
| Predicted Order of Finish | |||||
| 1. Patriots | 2008 standings: 11-5 | ||||
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| 2. Dolphins | 2008 standings: 11-5 | ||||
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| 3. Jets | 2008 standings: 9-7 | ||||
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| 4. Bills | 2008 standings: 7-9 | ||||
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But what about that Super Bowl? The Patriots are about winning them, not division titles.
It will take a huge improvement from that linebacker group for that to happen.
On offense, the Patriots will be a joy to watch and score a lot of points. They're better at running back, with Laurence Maroney getting all the carries instead of splitting them with Corey Dillon, and the receivers will help expand the field, help take the safety out of the box.
Brady is Brady. He will continue to light up opposing defenses. But it might take some time to mesh the unit together, especially since Moss missed so much time in camp with a hamstring injury.
"I'm always excited about our potential, but the potential and the reality is something that's very different," Brady said. "I've heard over the last six months the expectations for this team that we can just go out there and throw the ball on whomever we want and run it and gain 450 yards a game. But it takes a lot. It takes a lot of guys coming together, finding a role and playing with toughness and effort. We haven't played any regular season games to see where we're really at."
The Vegas guys have installed the Patriots as Super Bowl favorites. I'm not sure they are, but they certainly are strong favorites to repeat as division champs -- even with a linebacker group that might not run well enough to get them to February.
Thirty-two points by a Belichick defense is tough to forget. If the Patriots can show it was an aberration, rather than a condition known as old, slow feet, then the Patriots can indeed be right in the hunt again.
New England Patriots
Significant additions: WR Randy Moss, WR Donte' Stallworth, LB Adalius Thomas, S Brandon Meriweather, RB Sammy Morris, TE Kyle Brady, WR Wes Welker.
Significant subtractions: TE Daniel Graham, RB Corey Dillon, LB Tully Banta-Cain.
Biggest offseason move: Getting Moss. This was a pass offense that didn't have a go-to guy last season. With Moss, they now have that. The big question is how well he fits in with this team. Does his attitude become an issue?
Will go to the playoffs if ... the defense doesn't look like it did in the AFC title game loss to the Colts.
Rookie to watch: Meriweather. He has the speed of a corner and the ability to hit in the run game. He will be a star.
Overview: With the additions to the passing game, everyone has put this team in the Super Bowl. That's not the issue. It's the defense, particularly older, slower linebackers. If that continues, the defense will struggle. Look for a lot of shootouts.
Buffalo Bills
Significant additions: G Derrick Dockery, LB Paul Posluszny, RB Marshawn Lynch, T Langston Walker, G Jason Whittle.
Significant subtractions: RB Willis McGahee, LB London Fletcher, LB Takeo Spikes, CB Nate Clements, G-T Mike Gandy, G Tutan Reyes.
Biggest offseason move: Trading McGahee to the Ravens and drafting Lynch to take his spot. The Bills think Lynch fits their system better than McGahee.
Will got to the playoffs if ... J.P. Losman continues to develop the way he did late last season.
Rookie to watch: Lynch. They think he's the next Thurman Thomas. That's high praise, but he can run it and catch it, much like Thomas did.
Overview: If Losman can play at a high level, this is a team that can push for a wild-card spot. There is a lot of good, young talent here. They've drafted well the past few years, and that will start to show. They might be a year away from real contention, but a .500 record, maybe even 9-7, is possible.
New York Jets
Significant additions: CB Darrelle Revis, DE Kenyon Coleman, RB Thomas Jones, LB David Harris.
Significant subtractions: FB B.J. Askew, RB Kevan Barlow.
Biggest offseason move: Making the trade to get Jones. They think his power running will be perfect for their offense, one that lacked a true feature back last year.
Will get to the playoffs if ... the offense can move from a 25th ranking from a year ago to a unit ranked in the high teens.
Rookie to watch: Revis. He missed a lot of camp in a contract holdout, but he is a silky smooth cover player who can also return punts.
Overview: Did the Jets overachieve in 2006? Yes. They made the playoffs, but that won't happen this time around. Look for a slight regress for this team before it gets back to playoff contention next year. Chad Pennington needs to have another big year for this team to get to .500, and some wonder if that's possible. Is Kellen Clemens the long-term answer? The defense should be solid again. The Jets will be competitive, but they won't be as good in the standings as last season.
Miami Dolphins
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| How long until John Beck becomes Miami's QB? Says here November. (US Presswire) |
Significant subtractions: QB Daunte Culpepper, DE Kevin Carter, QB Joey Harrington, T Damion McIntosh, TE Randy McMichael, WR Wes Welker.
Biggest offseason move: Getting Green to play quarterback. They gave up on Culpepper and landed Green, who struggled last season after taking a severe hit to the head in the opener for Kansas City.
Will get to the playoffs if ... Dan Marino comes back in his prime. In other words, it isn't happening.
Rookie to watch: Ginn. He'll start off as a return man, but eventually he will become a factor in the passing game.
Overview: New coach Cam Cameron has an interesting team. He has some rising talent and some aging players who can still get it done. But he doesn't have the right quarterback, and we know this is a quarterback-driven league. The Dolphins will struggle with Green as their passer, and look for rookie John Beck to get on the field by November. This will be a much better team in 2008.
| Divisional Previews | |
|---|---|
| Date | Division |
| Aug. 27 | AFC East |
| Aug. 28 | NFC East |
| Aug. 29 | AFC South |
| Aug. 30 | NFC South |
| Sept. 3 | AFC North |
| Sept. 4 | NFC North |
| Sept. 5 | AFC West |
| Sept. 6 | NFC West |
