The dome-team factor: Colts had better win Sunday

Whoever wins gains a game-and-a-half lead in the home-field advantage department because it holds the first tiebreaker, which is head-to-head. If I'm Indianapolis, I leave nothing to chance.

It's win Sunday or else.

The Patriots have the easier schedule after Sunday, with only three opponents with winning records. Plus, they get to beat up on the AFC East. The Colts play five winning clubs, including San Diego in San Diego and the Ravens in Baltimore.

As I said: Win Sunday or else.

Sure, I know what home-field advantage means in the AFC: not much. Only two of the past eight and three of the last 13 top seeds made it to the Super Bowl, and one of them was New England.

Last year's top seed, San Diego, lost to New England. The 2005 top seed, Indianapolis, lost to Pittsburgh. The 2004 top seed, Pittsburgh, lost to New England. The 2003 top seed, the Patriots, held serve.

I think you can see why home-field advantage isn't such a big deal to New England.

But Indianapolis? They better have it. The Colts lost their final four road games last season, then circled the bases in the playoffs after drawing the Patriots at home. Good thing. That's an enormous advantage to Indianapolis, which has won its past 13 (including playoffs) at the RCA Dome, and it's an enormous advantage to dome teams in general.

I know the Colts are talented. I know they are deep. I know they are physical. I know they're the defending champs. But let me remind you again: No dome team since the merger ever won a conference championship game outside.

Case closed.