The Insider: Demand determines draft decisions

This is a big week for many NFL teams' college scouting departments, because the two scouting combines -- BLESTO and National -- have their fall meetings this week.

These two services provide scouting reports on all college seniors. At these meetings, teams will hear verbal reports on all of the draftable players. Most NFL teams belong to one of these two combines. They already have written reports but will now get updated information on them as well as be able to ask the combine scouts questions about them.

Darren McFadden's stock should soar thanks to the sensational season Adrian Peterson's having. (US Presswire)

Certainly teams are keeping track of these players' grades to know who the better prospects are, but often this is the first time that some of the general managers will spend a day or two to concentrate on the draft and listen the reports as well as read them.

Miami apparently is heading toward getting the first pick, and New England, through its draft day trade to obtain San Francisco's No. 1, could pick as high as second in the first round. You are already seeing the speculation on who Miami will take and what New England will do. Will they trade the pick or use it on one player?

The problem for any team picking at the top of the first round is the amount of guaranteed money you have to give the player. It could be roughly $30 million. Neither team, I think it is safe to say, will be interested in doing that as its first option, but trading the pick is not as easy as it sounds. Other teams are not interested in paying that money, either, or giving up draft picks or players in a trade to get the No. 1 pick or a pick near the top of the draft.

It is much too early to know how the 2008 draft will play out because we don't know the order of the teams, if there will be any new coaches and what needs teams will fill in free agency, as well as who will be in the draft. We know who the seniors are, but juniors don't have to declare until January.

The first thing you have to have to execute a trade at the top of the draft is a player who's in demand. At this point, I don't know the players well enough to have an opinion on most of them, but I have talked to most of the teams in the NFL to get there thoughts.

The top senior prospect is Glenn Dorsey, defensive tackle from LSU. Defensive lineman are always in demand, because they are hard to find, so even if some top level juniors come out, he will be a high pick.

The player who is fascinating to me is Arkansas running back Darren McFadden. He appears to me to be very similar in talent to Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings, who should win Offensive Rookie of the Year. I think right now with the limited knowledge we have as to who is going to be in the draft and how the teams will line up in order, if McFadden chooses to come out, he would be my choice to be at the top of the board. He's the player who I see having the most value in a trade if I had the top pick and was trying to get a market going to trade it.

As good as Peterson was in college, there was not an interest on the part of teams to trade up for him probably because of his injury history in college. He was hurt every year of his college career. I think people were reminded what an impact a great back can have on the game by watching Peterson this year, because it's rare we have seen a back like him in the past few years, except for LaDainian Tomlinson (2001 draft).

This is why I think a market could develop for the top pick. In the past few years, there was not any one player teams felt they had to have to make a deal to get the top pick. I know that in 2006, when we drafted Mario Williams, we did not receive one offer for our pick.

The two most recent trades involving No. 1s that were traded: Michael Vick (2001) and Eli Manning (2004). The only teams interested in trading for those picks/players were Atlanta (Vick) and the Giants (Manning).

Poll As of right now, who is the highest-rated player?   4%  Matt Ryan     4%  Chris Long     3%  Brian Brohm     6%  Colt Brennan     19%  Glenn Dorsey     64%  Darren McFadden     Total Votes: 2257

So when people talk about trading the first pick in the draft and picking up more picks and/or players, it's not as easy as it sounds. You need a player people want and a team or teams that want that player, and as you can see, that scenario does not happen that often.

Quarterback always gets a lot of interest at the top of the draft because of the importance of the position, even at the expense of teams overvaluing the quarterback prospects. When I asked people about the Class of 2008 quarterbacks, the vast majority of teams I talked to rated Matt Ryan of Boston College as their top QB. Brian Brohm of Louisville was rated the consensus No. 2, with some teams rating him No. 1. Andre Woodson of Kentucky was viewed as the third quarterback with the idea he was a second-round talent who could slip into the first round because of position need. Though it is too early to know this, I did not sense an excitement about Ryan that he was a special talent who would cause teams to trade up dramatically for him.

When I asked people to compare Ryan to the top two quarterbacks from the 2007 draft, many put Matt Ryan over Brady Quinn because of better accuracy but rated JaMarcus Russell ahead of him because of more raw talent. But a few clubs rated Ryan over Russell because they thought he was more ready to play next year.

The most interesting quarterback in listening to people talk about him was Colt Brennan of Hawaii. They run a pass-first offense called the Run 'n' Shoot, which is a system that is not run in the NFL anymore. His game vs. Georgia in the Sugar Bowl will most likely go toward determining his draft status more so than any other game he has probably played in his college career, because of the quality of the opposition and the fact Georgia will have plenty of time to prepare for this different style of offense.