For Pats, hardest part of winning SB XLII might be arriving

A friend told me the other day that, after this weekend, the easiest game for New England might be the Super Bowl. And he might be right ... provided, of course, the Patriots get there.

Beware of Peyton Manning and the defending champs. (Getty Images)

Most people think they will, and that's logical. I mean, if they couldn't lose in 16 games, why should we believe they're vulnerable in the next three?

I don't know that they are, but I do know they will be pushed. In fact, I think they'll be pushed in the AFC playoffs more than Dallas, Green Bay or whoever emerges as the NFC champion will be able to squeeze them in the Super Bowl.

That is not a reflection of the NFC field as much as it is respect for what's there in the AFC -- and what's in there are three significant speed bumps. I'm talking about Indianapolis, San Diego and Jacksonville, and if I'm New England ... or anyone else, for that matter ... these are teams I want to avoid.

Here's why:

Indianapolis

Peyton Manning once said this year's team is more complete than last year's, which, in case you forgot, won the Super Bowl. They're more physical, that's for sure, and they're tougher against the run. OK, so they haven't had Marvin Harrison, but the development of rookie Anthony Gonzalez, the outstanding play of Reggie Wayne and the versatility of tight end Dallas Clark mitigate that loss.

The important thing to remember here is that they still have Manning, and he's playing his best football of the season. Over the past five games, he has 15 TD passes and only three interceptions. The Colts won all five, including a 28-25 defeat of Jacksonville, and that's what you call momentum. In fact, since dropping back-to-back games to New England and San Diego in early November, Indianapolis hasn't lost. The Colts are 6-0 and a botched field goal away from a 14-1 record. I like that. I also like that they overcame the losses of a zillion starters, including Harrison, Joseph Addai, Bob Sanders, Dwight Freeney and others to achieve the second-best record in football.

I became a believer in these guys when they played New England without four starters, including two linebackers, and still took the Patriots to the mat. Hey, they destroyed Tampa Bay when they were without six starters. The Colts threw a scare into New England last month, and the Patriots can hope they don't see them again. Remember, the past two times they went to New England, they won.

The downside: Ah, yes, there's that pesky problem of dome teams when it comes to the playoffs. No dome team has gone to the Super Bowl through the Great Outdoors, and that includes Indianapolis. The Colts were in the 2003 AFC Championship Game, and it was in New England. They lost, and they lost big. That winless record of dome teams in conference championship games is something you can't ignore -- particularly when it's paired with New England's unblemished playoff record at Gillette Stadium.

San Diego

General manager A.J. Smith insists his Chargers don't belong in a conversation about the league's elite, and his reason is this: Anyone who starts 1-3 loses that privilege. Maybe, but the Chargers are 9-2 since then, which means the Bolts look like the club that lapped the AFC last season.

Let's see, Denver didn't score a touchdown on them. Tennessee squandered a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to them, losing in overtime. And they were Indianapolis' last defeat.

Philip Rivers, who was so inconsistent for most of the season, seems to have found himself -- thanks largely to a courageous second-half performance in Tennessee. He hasn't thrown an interception in his past two starts, the first time that happened this season.

LaDainian Tomlinson looks like the league MVP again, running for more than 100 yards in each of the past two games despite playing little more than a half in each.