Peek at the Week: Steelers must pass to pull home upset
By Clark Judge | CBSSports.com Senior Writer Follow ClarkGame of the week
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh, Saturday, 8 p.m. | 
Preview
The line: Jacksonville by 1½
The injuries: Though Jacksonville linebacker Mike Peterson dressed for a light practice this week he won't play. He missed the last six games of the season with a broken hand.
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| Psst, Big Ben will take his chances with the Jags' secondary early and often. (Getty Images) |
The story: People want to know why the Pittsburgh Steelers aren't favored for a playoff game at home, and if you listen closely, I'll tell you: Three weeks ago, they were shredded at Heinz Field by these Jacksonville Jaguars. Yeah, I know what the final score was, but I also know how easily the Jaguars ran through the Pittsburgh defense. So do the thousands of spectators who left the building in the fourth quarter, guaranteeing they would miss out on Pittsburgh's valiant comeback.
Anyway, this one is pretty easy to figure out: The Steelers go out of their way to make sure what happened Dec. 16 doesn't happen again, which means they make David Garrard try to win this thing. Can he? Sure. He played outstanding football this year, but late in the season, he started taking chances I didn't see the first half. That could cost him here, especially if defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau produces a game plan to bottle up Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Nevertheless, the advantage is with Jacksonville because it is the more physical club, and if you don't believe it, you weren't paying attention three weeks ago.
If the Jaguars are vulnerable, it's with their pass defense, and I expect Ben Roethlisberger to exploit the Jags secondary early and often -- especially with Willie Parker missing. That doesn't mean Najeh Davenport becomes a hood ornament, but it does mean he doesn't get the carries Parker would. Pittsburgh remembers what happened when it opened up things three weeks ago, and it should try to replicate that game plan. Plus, why not put the game in the hands of Big Ben? He's 5-1 in the playoffs, with a Super Bowl ring.
I know, Air Coryell is not exactly Pittsburgh's personality. Since the merger in 1970, no team has run for as many yards as the Steeelers. But they might have to switch plans out of necessity. Jacksonville is another club with momentum, despite that pounding its second stringers absorbed in Houston. The club believes it can beat anyone in the conference, and this is its chance to prove it.
Once, I waited for a Jack Del Rio team to produce a quality road win. Then the Jags went into Pittsburgh and did just that in miserable conditions. Pulling a repeat performance won't be easy. It never is when Dick LeBeau coaches the opposing defense. But the Jags can tell themselves this: The Steelers were one of 10 consecutive opponents they punctured for 24 or more points, and that's not an aberration. It's a trend.
Something to consider: The Steelers were ripped for 224 yards and 180 yards rushing in two of their past three games, both of them losses.
The rest of the story
Washington at Seattle, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. | Preview
This might be my favorite game of the weekend because it's a gauge to the meaning of momentum. Washington has Big Mo; Seattle does not. Now, is that significant? We're about to find out.
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| Todd Collins must be error-free once again. (Getty Images) |
Maybe the motivation of Sean Taylor goes only so far, I don't know. I had a coach tell me the other day that he thinks inspirational speeches and emotional play don't decide ballgames at this level, but I guess he didn't see Hoosiers. What I like about Washington is that it doesn't make big screw-ups on offense and is tough, aggressive and opportunistic on defense. If you want to beat these guys, you had better score more than 21 points, and nobody has the past six games.
That doesn't mean Seattle can't win. It can, particularly if Matt Hasselbeck can dissect the Washington secondary with his accuracy. But the Seahawks are handicapped. They have almost no rushing attack, which means Washington can drop people into coverage and dare Shaun Alexander to beat them -- knowing, of course, that he can't.
Is there anything we're forgetting? Yep, the Seahawks' best ally -- their fans. They can disrupt a game and unravel an opponent, and don't take it from me; ask the New York Giants. They once committed 11 false starts here. Unusual? Yes. But not extraordinary. There are more false start penalties at Qwest Field than anywhere. So the Redskins had better bring their earplugs, their no-doze and their umbrellas. Check the forecast. It's going to rain.
Something to consider: Washington's Shawn Springs, a former first-round draft choice of Seattle, has four interceptions in his past four games.
N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay, Sunday, 1 p.m. | Preview
The Giants have the Bucs just where they want them -- uh-huh, at Raymond James Stadium. In case you missed it, the Giants can't win at home and can't lose on the road. They're 3-5 at Giants Stadium and 7-1 elsewhere, winning their past seven. So this game is perfectly suited to them except ... except they haven't won a playoff game under Tom Coughlin and haven't won a playoff game against Jeff Garcia.
Great.
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| Brandon Jacobs must play like his punishing self. (Getty Images) |
The Bucs, on the other hand, hope to put Manning into situations where he will be forced to beat them. They thrive on takeaways, and Manning turned over the ball 27 times this season -- including 20 interceptions. The Bucs are conservative and methodical on offense, but they don't play the giveaway game -- and you can look it up. They had the fewest turnovers in the NFC.
Running back Earnest Graham will carry the Tampa Bay running game, but it's Garcia who commands the attention. He can run, he can throw on the run, he can throw and he owns the Giants. So he didn't have a lot of touchdowns (13); he didn't make a lot of mistakes, either. Ageless Joey Galloway is the deep-ball threat, and former Giant Ike Hilliard is the Bucs' third-down target -- and the Giants are advised to watch both.
Something to consider: Including this season's 16-0 New England Patriots, only nine teams in league history entered the playoffs with seven or more consecutive road wins, and three of them went on to win Super Bowls.
Tennessee at San Diego, Sunday, 4:30 p.m. | Preview
A month ago these two met in Tennessee in one of the toughest, roughest, dirtiest contests I've seen in years. When it was over there were casualties everywhere, including the Titans, who blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to lose in overtime. Now Tennessee is back, and the Chargers are heavily favored to win their first playoff game since 1995.
They should be, and here's why: They have a six-game winning streak, they've already knocked off the Titans and they're home. Oh, yeah, and because they have LaDainian Tomlinson, who shredded Tennessee for 146 yards the last time they met and averaged 112 yards per game in the Chargers' six-game sprint to the finish. Look for Tomlinson to get the call again, especially with coach Norv Turner reluctant to put too much playoff pressure on the young shoulders of quarterback Philip Rivers.
I'd expect Tennessee to run the ball plenty, too, though you can change that script if Kerry Collins gets the start over injured Vince Young. Collins' strength is his right arm, and he was good enough against the scrubs of Indianapolis to launch the Titans into the playoffs. Beating the first-teamers of San Diego is another matter. Remember, the club led the league in interceptions, with Antonio Cromartie responsible for a league-best 10. Plus, the Titans' Roydell Williams, who is tied for the team lead in receptions, is out with a broken ankle.
Then there is this: Rain is in the forecast. It doesn't rain much in San Diego, but it does rain for playoff games, and don't ask me who it benefits. All I know is the Chargers have a dismal playoff history in recent years, blowing a lead against New England last year and losing to the New York Jets in 2005. It can't happen again ... can it?
Something to consider: Better not make Merriman angry. The Chargers are 11-1 when he has two or more sacks.
Slam dunk of the week
San Diego over Tennessee
The Chargers are 15-2 (including the playoffs) at home the past two years, and Vince Young is iffy for the Titans. Let's say he plays. How effective do you think he will be with a sore quad? I'm with you. That's why San Diego wins a playoff game for the first time in 12 years.
Five guys I'd like to be
Michael Strahan, DE, N.Y. Giants: Because in six playoff games he has 7.5 sacks, the most in the team's postseason history.
Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh: Because he has eight TD receptions in eight playoff games.
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego: Because he averages 101.5 yards rushing per game in the playoffs.
Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE, Tennessee: Because the last time he faced tackle Marcus McNeill, he ran through him for three sacks in three quarters.
Jeff Garcia, QB, Tampa Bay: Because he is 4-1 against the Giants, including 2-0 in the playoffs.
Stat of the week
Quarterbacks should beware in the San Diego-Tennessee game. The Chargers led the league with 30 interceptions, tying an NFL record, while the Titans tied Indianapolis with 22. When the two face off Sunday, it will mark the fourth playoff game since 1970 that the league's top two teams in interceptions meet.
He said it
"That field is terrible. That's a lawsuit pending. Maybe they should try and invest in some FieldTurf in the future." -- Jacksonville's Fred Taylor on Heinz Field
Where we will be
I'll be in Seattle on Saturday to see what happens to Daniel Snyder's sunglasses when there is no sun and in San Diego on Sunday to load the Norv Turner bandwagon.
Pete will be in Tampa Bay to pester Tom Coughlin, just for ol' times' sake.
Gregg Doyel will be in Pittsburgh to tell us which pours better, Heinz Field or Heinz Ketchup.
