Falcons overspend to land pre-owned back Turner

But do the Falcons really know what they're getting? Do they know if Turner can handle a 16-game load as a starter? Do they know if he can be a 25-carry-a-game player?

What they know is this: They've seen glimpses of potential in Turner, but when given the chance to really show what he had in the AFC Championship Game loss to the New England Patriots, Turner didn't do a whole lot. He was held to 65 yards on 17 carries for a 3.8 average, not quite the 5.5 he rang up as a backup in his four years.

There's a big difference running when the game is on the line and you're running over players who have essentially quit with the game out of reach.

Turner had 71 carries for 316 yards last season. According to NFL.com situational stats, 65 of those carries came when the margin was eight points or more either way.

He averaged 4.6 on those 65 carries, but most of the yardage and success came when the margin was 15 or more; he carried 30 times for 198 yards for a 6.6 average. When the spread was 8 to 14, the average fell to 3.0 per rush. When it was seven or less, he carried just six times for 13 yards for a 2.2 average.

The numbers don't lie: Turner was better when the game wasn't tight. Running in mop-up time is a lot different than running in crunch time.

I'm not saying Turner can't be an effective back for a couple of years, but why pay a runner a six-year deal for a reported $34 million with $15 million guaranteed when there is as much uncertainty about his becoming a featured back as there is with a rookie.

Being L.T.'s stand-in and being the man are far different. The Falcons might find that out the hard way. If McFadden and his Class of 2008 backs go on to successful careers, which many predict, this move will be scrutinized greatly.

Then again, four years from now, I wouldn't pay McFadden either.