Storm clouds on horizon could threaten labor peace

The deal included a re-opener of sorts, a provision under which either side could opt out in November 2008. The players have no interest in opting out. They like the arrangement they have. It is widely expected the owners will opt out, however. If they do, the 2009 season would become the last year of a salary cap, and the CBA would expire following an uncapped 2010 season. As currently written, the agreement was scheduled to run through the 2012 season.

Yet an opt-out does not necessarily mean doomsday, even though some already are predicting it would lead to a lockout in 2011.

For one thing, the players and owners would have more than a year to negotiate a new deal before the uncapped year and other changes could come into play. For another, the end of the salary cap is not necessarily all good news for the players, which is why the negotiations would be expected to lead to a new deal.

Under provisions of the agreement, if there is no salary cap in 2010, players would get free agency after six years rather than four. Since the average career length in the NFL is less than four years, this is not good news for a lot of players.

For another, teams would be permitted one franchise player designation and two transition players, meaning that three significant players not otherwise under contract would be denied free agency.

For yet another, there would no longer be a minimum payroll that teams have to spend, and it is widely expected that many of them would see that as an opportunity to cut costs.

And for yet one more, certain fringe benefits players receive would be eliminated.

The union, meanwhile, is raising the threat of de-certifying and suing the league on anti-trust grounds, as it did two decades ago to win free agency for the first time. But there is hardly a guarantee that another lawsuit would succeed and, meanwhile, there are the players who would be caught in the middle waiting for it.

Bottom line: Expect a lot of rhetoric, but also expect the likelihood is that war will be averted.

Prosperity in the NFL has been built on more than two decades of labor peace. Most of the cooler heads within the league expect labor peace and prosperity to continue. A lot can happen in the next two years, and that's why many around the league aren't concerned about the looming likelihood of an opt-out.

"Gloom and doom is all part of it," said one well-placed executive. "Nothing happens without a deadline, and if we opt out, this will give us a deadline to negotiate a new deal."

Ira Miller is a Senior Writer for The Sports Xchange. His stories can be read at www.mysportspage.com