NFC South: Solid offseason moves have Saints feeling division title

AFC East | AFC South | NFC East

Since the NFL went to four divisions per conference in 2002, nobody has repeated as a winner in the NFC South. Which means we can start looking for Tampa Bay's successor now.

I'll nominate New Orleans, basically because of the raft of offseason moves the Saints made to shore up a leaky defense -- with the addition of linebacker Jonathan Vilma the most noteworthy.

That was enough for me, but then they went out and picked up tight end Jeremy Shockey. Smart move. Trust me, he'll be the happy camper he wasn't in New York.

The Saints have talent where it counts, which is why I think they edge out Carolina. It's a big year for the Panthers and their head coach, and I never, ever, ever underestimate John Fox when the screws are turned. But I don't see how he silences the Saints' weapons, particularly if Julius Peppers doesn't get his act together.

I almost forgot about Tampa Bay, and it's never a good idea to undersell Jon Gruden, either. That happened a year ago, and he went to the top with Earnest Graham carrying the ball.

Nice job, Jon. Now history says the run is over.

We don't need history to tell us what happens to Atlanta. The Falcons are in a rebuilding mode, which means you'll have to be patient, Falcons fans. So relax, sit back and enjoy the view ... of three others duking it out for first.

New Orleans

Significant additions: LB Jonathan Vilma, TE Jeremy Shockey, CB Randall Gay, CB Aaron Glenn, QB Mark Brunell, OL Matt Lehr, DT Sedrick Ellis.

Significant subtractions: C Jeff Faine, K Olindo Mare, LB Brian Simmons, DE Renaldo Wynn.

Biggest offseason move: Acquiring Vilma. The guy was a tackling machine in the Jets' 4-3 scheme. Of course, that's before he was hurt. If he stays healthy he makes this defense better ... maybe a whole lot better.

Will make the playoffs if ... It can avoid last year's lame start. Of the Saints' first five opponents, only two -- San Francisco and Denver -- had a losing record last season, and the first two -- Tampa Bay and Washington -- were playoff clubs.

Rookie to watch: Defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. With Hollis Thomas sidelined, he becomes a starter. I know people who thought Ellis was the best defensive lineman in the draft. Here's his chance to prove it.

Overview: The Saints are improved compared to the club that was a disappointing 7-9 last season, and they may be vastly better on defense. Having Vilma helps, same goes for Ellis and Gay. We all know they can score with anyone, particularly with the addition of Shockey, but it's their defense -- particularly the pass defense -- that must hold up. I say it does.

Carolina

Significant additions: WR D.J. Hackett, DE Tyler Brayton, G Milford Brown, S Terrence Holt, LB Landon Johnson, WR Muhsin Muhammad, G Keydrick Vincent, RB Jonathan Stewart, T Jeff Otah.

Significant subtractions: WR Drew Carter, WR Keary Colbert, S Marquand Manuel, QB David Carr, RB DeShaun Foster, DT Kris Jenkins, C Justin Hartwig, DE Mike Rucker, G Mike Wahle.

Biggest offseason move: Trading away a first-round draft choice for Otah. The move tells you all you need to know about the urgency of winning. Coach John Fox was willing to sacrifice next year's first-rounder for the chance to improve now -- basically because if this team doesn't get better now, there is no next season for Fox.

Will make the playoffs if ... Julius Peppers becomes Julius Peppers again, and Jake Delhomme sticks around for 16 games.

Rookie to watch: Stewart. The Panthers are all about running the ball and playing sound defense, and they didn't do much of either a year ago. Stewart will split carries with DeAngelo Williams, and if they're as good as they seem this summer, they should take the heat off quarterback Jake Delhomme.

Poll Who will win the NFC South? 14% Bucs   63% Saints   4% Falcons   18% Panthers   Total Votes: 24648

Overview: There's a lot of pressure on Fox, partly because the Panthers haven't reached the playoffs in two years and partly because Bill Cowher is sitting at home in Raleigh. The club suspended star receiver Steve Smith the first two regular-season games, and it better hope it survives Chicago. I just can't see it beating San Diego in the season opener. I don't know what the repercussions are from the Smith-Ken Lucas incident, but I do know Carolina must find another outside weapon -- and fast. Dwayne Jarrett, consider that a wake-up call.

Tampa Bay

Significant additions: RB Warrick Dunn, C Jeff Faine, QB Brian Griese, TE John Gilmore, LB Teddy Lehman, TE Ben Troupe, S Eugene Wilson, CB Aqib Talib.

Significant subtractions: FB Mike Alstott, TE Anthony Becht, CB Brian Kelly, OL Matt Lehr, C John Wade, RB Michael Pittman, DE Greg Spires.

Biggest offseason move: The Bucs didn't land Brett Favre, so I'll go with the acquisition of Faine. The Bucs thought so much of him they made him the highest paid center in NFL history, so he better be good. Look at it this way: You can't start a play without a center, so why not find one you trust? The Bucs just did.

Will make the playoffs if ... New Orleans and Carolina stumble. Gruden pulled off a minor miracle making the playoffs last year, and he did it after losing Cadillac Williams. No problem, that's where Graham came in. Of course, it didn't hurt that Jeff Garcia was in charge. The guy knows how to win.

Rookie to watch: When the Bucs chose cornerback Aqib Talib with their first draft pick, the idea was to have him serve as the team's nickel back this season. He will do that, with coaches impressed by his steady play this summer. One day he will start, but Tampa Bay is in no hurry to supplant Ronde Barber or Phillip Buchanon.

Overview: Tampa Bay failed in its push for Favre, so the Bucs have Garcia to quarterback them again. Believe me, that is nothing but good. Garcia is accurate, mobile and a perfect fit for Jon Gruden's offense. He doesn't make a lot of mistakes, which begs the question: Why did the Bucs re-acquire Griese? Tampa Bay is dangerous, especially with Monte Kiffin running the league's second-ranked defense.

Atlanta

Significant additions: RB Michael Turner, S Erik Coleman, TE Ben Hartsock, CB Von Hutchins, C Alex Stepanovich, QB Matt Ryan, LB Curtis Lofton.

Significant subtractions: CB DeAngelo Hall, RB Warrick Dunn, LB Demorrio Williams, K Morten Anderson, TE Alge Crumpler, DT Rod Coleman, QB Byron Leftwich, CB Lewis Sanders.

Biggest offseason move: Putting the franchise in the hands of Ryan. Guaranteed, there will be no more encores for Michael Vick.

Will make the playoffs if ... The rest of the division is declared ineligible.

Rookie to watch: Ryan. He will start, and he will get pummeled. But the guy has the right attitude and maybe, just maybe, he survives.

Overview: Things can't get much worse for the Falcons than they were last year when they lost almost everything -- including Vick, games, fans and their head coach. So now it's up to Mike Smith to turn this thing around, and, sorry, people, it's going to take time -- lots of time. The Falcons think they have a quarterback, but he doesn't get going until or unless that 26th-ranked rushing attack perks up. And that, folks, is why Turner makes the big bucks.