Power Rankings: Dark horses on hold, Colts, Pats chalk picks

Updated Sept. 2

That team is in there somewhere, buried among the dregs of the NFL. There might even be two of them.

I call them "The Shockers," those teams that come from nowhere to make the playoffs in the NFL when nobody sees it coming.

As I prepared the first regular-season batch of our Power Rankings -- opening up the season of rip jobs -- I kept scanning the bottom half of the league to try and come up with a team that will shock us all, be better than we thought, and make the usual mockery of this first set of rankings.

It happens to me -- and you -- every season. Why not again this season?

That's the NFL way. It's also a way to ensure the nasty e-mails and comments under these rankings keep coming my way. Nothing I do infuriates you guys like the rankings.

So who is that team? Maybe it's the Buffalo Bills or Houston Texans? Most of you would probably go with the New York Jets, who are 20th in these rankings (Jets fans probably want to throw me off the Empire State Building for that ranking), but I think the Jets are where they will finish -- below the playoff teams.

Whatever that surprise team is, expect to see it come playoff time. It's also a team that will probably do nothing more than make the postseason party, not with the power teams so far ahead of the rest.

In the AFC, the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers are the teams to beat. In the NFC, I'll go with the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants.

At least one of those six will make the Super Bowl, maybe two.

They're followed by a mix of teams that have a chance to join them in that elite class, teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks.

So which team is the best? For now, I'm going with the Colts on one condition: Peyton Manning plays like his old self. If he does, the Colts will be better than the 2006 team that won the Super Bowl.

That isn't to say the Patriots or Chargers won't be there with them. There isn't much dividing those three.

Health will be key. That means Manning, Tom Brady (Patriots) and Shawne Merriman (Chargers). All have missed time in the preseason with injuries. All are vital to their team's success, the first two even more so than Merriman.

First one healthy to December wins.

As I finished writing that sentence, I decided to scan the rankings again, one last time in search of the surprise team. The bottom eight teams have no shot to make the playoffs, eliminating them. So that means the surprise team is between 16 and 24, meaning somewhere in that group is a playoff team.

Which is it? I just don't know for sure but I know the team is in there.

Damn it, who is it? Any ideas?

Power Rankings
Current		Team	Previous
	1	Colts · Trends	1
	They make it interesting, but they still find a way. The amazing thing is that they are winning yet not healthy. That's what a good quarterback does for a team.
	2	Saints · Trends	2
	Can anybody stop that offense? If they get to play their playoff games inside the Superdome, it's hard not imagining them in the Super Bowl.
	3	Vikings · Trends	3
	If the playoffs go through their dome, they will be tough to beat. They seem to be getting better -- if that's possible.
	4	Cowboys · Trends	5
	The offense woke up against the Raiders, which is a good sign moving forward. But it will be December the next time they play and we know how they fade in that month.
	5	Bengals · Trends	6
	It wasn't pretty against the Browns, but they went to 8-3. The one concern I have is they aren't passing it that well right now. That has to get better down the stretch.
	6	Chargers · Trends	7
	Momentum seems to be building for this team. As the defense improves, so will their Super chances. We know they can score.
	7	Patriots · Trends	4
	They got ambushed in New Orleans. That defense has not played well when facing good passing teams. Where's the pass rush?
	8	Eagles · Trends	9
	They struggled some against the Redskins and now must go on the road at Atlanta. That won't be easy.
	9	Broncos · Trends	12
	That was a season-saving victory against the Giants. But be careful this week against the Chiefs. They've owned the Broncos in December at Arrowhead.
	10	Packers · Trends	14
	They are starting to have a playoff look about them. The key will be how that offensive line holds up.
	11	Cardinals · Trends	8
	The division race tightened up with that loss to the Titans, and now they have a huge game with the Vikings. They have to be careful of San Francisco creeping back into it.
	12	Steelers · Trends	10
	The questioning of Ben Roethlisberger sitting out by teammates is not a good sign. They shouldn't do that. It could cause problems.
	13	Giants · Trends	11
	This is a team in big trouble. If Eli Manning can't play at close to 100 percent the rest of the way, they can forget the playoffs. Even with them, they could miss out.
	14	Falcons · Trends	15
	Matt Ryan won't play this week, which means Chris Redman will have their playoff hopes on his right arm against the Eagles. Can he play as well as he did last week, now that they know he's coming?
	15	Ravens · Trends	17
	They had a huge victory last week over the Steelers, but now have to go to Green Bay to face the Packers. That will be tough.
	16	Jaguars · Trends	13
	As long as they don't go to the West Coast again, they will be fine. They scored three points in two games there. Ouch.
	17	Titans · Trends	19
	Watch out. They're coming fast. If they can beat the Colts this week, the schedule the rest of the way is favorable.
	18	Dolphins · Trends	16
	Did they blow their playoff chances at Buffalo? If they did, that halfback pass on their opening drive of the game could be the reason why.
	19	Texans · Trends	18
	When they learn to beat the Colts, then we'll take their playoff chances seriously. If they lose at Jacksonville this week, it could be the end of the Gary Kubiak era.
	20	Jets · Trends	20
	They're still alive, but barely. They still don't look close to being the team that jumped to a 3-0 start.
	21	49ers · Trends	23
	Alex Smith has five games to show he is their guy for the future. He looked comfortable against the Jaguars.
	22	Bills · Trends	24
	The team is playing better under Perry Fewell. But he probably has no chance to keep the job.
	23	Seahawks · Trends	25
	It's too bad they don't play the Rams every week. If they did, they might make the playoffs. Justin Forsett looks like the real deal.
	24	Panthers · Trends	21
	It's time to make a change at quarterback. Find out what Matt Moore can do. What do they have to lose?
	25	Bears · Trends	22
	Paging Bill Cowher. Paging Bill Cowher. Is there any doubt they will make a coaching change now?
	26	Chiefs · Trends	26
	That San Diego game was a reminder of how far this team needs to go. They are a long way away from competing.
	27	Redskins · Trends	27
	They're still playing hard, but it doesn't matter. Jim Zorn is still gone after the season.
	28	Raiders · Trends	28
	At some point they have to get a quarterback. There is talent going to waste on this roster.
	29	Lions · Trends	29
	They have some offensive talent. Now they have to fix that defense. Teams do what they want. Green Bay wasn't even challenged.
	30	Rams · Trends	30
	Will they win again? It doesn't look good. Now comes the big decision: Which quarterback do they take in next spring's draft?
	31	Buccaneers · Trends	31
	Who will Raheem Morris fire this week? Is it another loss, another firing? It's time the blame goes to the man at the top.
	32	Browns · Trends	32
	It has to be hard to watch this team, especially for Browns fans. The question now is whether Eric Mangini makes it for a second season.