Power Rankings: Dark horses on hold, Colts, Pats chalk picks

Updated Sept. 2

That team is in there somewhere, buried among the dregs of the NFL. There might even be two of them.

I call them "The Shockers," those teams that come from nowhere to make the playoffs in the NFL when nobody sees it coming.

As I prepared the first regular-season batch of our Power Rankings -- opening up the season of rip jobs -- I kept scanning the bottom half of the league to try and come up with a team that will shock us all, be better than we thought, and make the usual mockery of this first set of rankings.

It happens to me -- and you -- every season. Why not again this season?

That's the NFL way. It's also a way to ensure the nasty e-mails and comments under these rankings keep coming my way. Nothing I do infuriates you guys like the rankings.

So who is that team? Maybe it's the Buffalo Bills or Houston Texans? Most of you would probably go with the New York Jets, who are 20th in these rankings (Jets fans probably want to throw me off the Empire State Building for that ranking), but I think the Jets are where they will finish -- below the playoff teams.

Whatever that surprise team is, expect to see it come playoff time. It's also a team that will probably do nothing more than make the postseason party, not with the power teams so far ahead of the rest.

In the AFC, the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers are the teams to beat. In the NFC, I'll go with the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants.

At least one of those six will make the Super Bowl, maybe two.

They're followed by a mix of teams that have a chance to join them in that elite class, teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks.

So which team is the best? For now, I'm going with the Colts on one condition: Peyton Manning plays like his old self. If he does, the Colts will be better than the 2006 team that won the Super Bowl.

That isn't to say the Patriots or Chargers won't be there with them. There isn't much dividing those three.

Health will be key. That means Manning, Tom Brady (Patriots) and Shawne Merriman (Chargers). All have missed time in the preseason with injuries. All are vital to their team's success, the first two even more so than Merriman.

First one healthy to December wins.

As I finished writing that sentence, I decided to scan the rankings again, one last time in search of the surprise team. The bottom eight teams have no shot to make the playoffs, eliminating them. So that means the surprise team is between 16 and 24, meaning somewhere in that group is a playoff team.

Which is it? I just don't know for sure but I know the team is in there.

Damn it, who is it? Any ideas?

Power Rankings
Current		Team	Previous
	1	Colts · Trends	1
	They didn't look great against the 49ers, but they found a way. That's what good teams do. It has to be good having Bob Sanders back again.
	2	Saints · Trends	2
	It was a little bit of a struggle against the Falcons, but the schedule is favorable the rest of the way, to say the least. Is an undefeated season possible?
	3	Vikings · Trends	4
	They have a real hold on the division after sweeping the Packers. They really are a balanced team and Brett Favre is coming off a big game. There, I said it. Aside from the Steelers game, he is playing well.
	4	Broncos · Trends	3
	After their first loss, here come the champions. The Pittsburgh Steelers will provide another stiff test for the Broncos. They need to throw it better. Period.
	5	Patriots · Trends	5
	They come off the bye with a chance to take a real hold of the division by beating Miami. You know they'll be ready for the Wildcat.
	6	Bengals · Trends	6
	At 5-2 after their bye, they get a rematch with the Ravens this week. They can throw it better now than when they beat them the first time, which should help.
	7	Steelers · Trends	7
	They can show they are back with a road victory at Denver. The bye week gives them a little edge heading into that one, although Denver will be angry coming off its first loss.
	8	Eagles · Trends	8
	We get Eagles-Cowboys this week for first place in the NFC East. That should be fun. The Eagles are rolling after that Oakland disaster two weeks ago.
	9	Cowboys · Trends	11
	Is it time to stop ripping on Tony Romo? He's playing some of his best football. The defense, which was a problem much of the season, is playing better.
	10	Ravens · Trends	14
	They had to beat Denver to save their season, but now they get a big one against the Bengals on the road. To have a real chance to win the division, they need that one.
	11	Cardinals · Trends	9
	Can anybody figure this team out? They play well on the road and stink it up at home. Good thing they're on the road this week.
	12	Giants · Trends	10
	They are an example of how fast things can go bad in the NFL. If that defense doesn't play better soon, they could be playoff-less.
	13	Texans · Trends	16
	The improvement of the defense to go with that passing game has really helped this team. They do have a lot of premium talent on the defensive side of the ball.
	14	Chargers · Trends	17
	They seemed to right things the past two weeks, but now must head east to play a desperate Giants team. That won't be easy.
	15	Falcons · Trends	12
	They played well at New Orleans, especially in the second half, and the schedule gets easier now. They are a good 4-3 team.
	16	Packers · Trends	13
	Boy that offensive line is bad. If they don't improve there, Aaron Rodgers doesn't stand a chance.
	17	Bears · Trends	19
	Nothing like the Cleveland Browns to provide the perfect potion for all that ails a team. Facing Arizona at home this week won't be as easy.
	18	Dolphins · Trends	22
	That wasn't pretty against the Jets, but they found a way. Now they have to go to New England, with a chance to get back into the race. Playing two consecutive road games is tough.
	19	Jets · Trends	15
	There is no way they should have lost to the Dolphins at home, but at 4-4 they have been way too inconsistent. How about some special-teams work this week?
	20	Jaguars · Trends	18
	They will be a .500 team at best. The defense isn't very good, so they will play a lot of high-scoring games. The good news is they have a winnable game against Kansas City this week.
	21	Panthers · Trends	24
	Was that a job saver for coach John Fox and a season saver last week in Arizona? It was a big win, but those two things are still to be decided.
	22	49ers · Trends	20
	Playing close isn't good enough. They have to start winning those kinds of games. It's hard when they're limited on offense.
	23	Bills · Trends	21
	The run defense is really bad and they don't have the offense to make up for it. Did you ever think they would long to get Trent Edwards back so much?
	24	Seahawks · Trends	23
	They've been a major disappointment in a lot of people's minds. But the injuries have crippled this team. It's a tough first year for Jim Mora Jr.
	25	Raiders · Trends	25
	At least they showed up and competed against the Chargers. It's more than they did the previous week. Wonder how Tom Cable's troubles will affect the team?
	26	Chiefs · Trends	26
	They come off their bye with the Larry Johnson saga hanging over their heads. Something they need more of: Better play from Matt Cassel.
	27	Redskins · Trends	27
	Did they fix things during the bye? Is Jim Zorn safe now that he made it through the week off? Can they turn it around? Doubtful.
	28	Rams · Trends	31
	They won. They won. They won. After 17 consecutive losses, they should celebrate. Steven Jackson is having a good year for a bad team.
	29	Titans · Trends	32
	The move to Vince Young paid off. Yeah, as long as Chris Johnson runs for 228, it paid off. They did show more life coming off their bye in winning for the first time.
	30	Lions · Trends	28
	Losing to the Rams drops them down a few spots. They are competing, which is a good sign for this young team.
	31	Browns · Trends	29
	Does this team need a bye or what? Do they really have to play out the season with that offense?
	32	Buccaneers · Trends	30
	The Josh Freeman Era begins, and it's the right thing to do. They have to get him going for the future. Why wait?