Power Rankings: Dark horses on hold, Colts, Pats chalk picks

Updated Sept. 2

That team is in there somewhere, buried among the dregs of the NFL. There might even be two of them.

I call them "The Shockers," those teams that come from nowhere to make the playoffs in the NFL when nobody sees it coming.

As I prepared the first regular-season batch of our Power Rankings -- opening up the season of rip jobs -- I kept scanning the bottom half of the league to try and come up with a team that will shock us all, be better than we thought, and make the usual mockery of this first set of rankings.

It happens to me -- and you -- every season. Why not again this season?

That's the NFL way. It's also a way to ensure the nasty e-mails and comments under these rankings keep coming my way. Nothing I do infuriates you guys like the rankings.

So who is that team? Maybe it's the Buffalo Bills or Houston Texans? Most of you would probably go with the New York Jets, who are 20th in these rankings (Jets fans probably want to throw me off the Empire State Building for that ranking), but I think the Jets are where they will finish -- below the playoff teams.

Whatever that surprise team is, expect to see it come playoff time. It's also a team that will probably do nothing more than make the postseason party, not with the power teams so far ahead of the rest.

In the AFC, the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers are the teams to beat. In the NFC, I'll go with the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants.

At least one of those six will make the Super Bowl, maybe two.

They're followed by a mix of teams that have a chance to join them in that elite class, teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks.

So which team is the best? For now, I'm going with the Colts on one condition: Peyton Manning plays like his old self. If he does, the Colts will be better than the 2006 team that won the Super Bowl.

That isn't to say the Patriots or Chargers won't be there with them. There isn't much dividing those three.

Health will be key. That means Manning, Tom Brady (Patriots) and Shawne Merriman (Chargers). All have missed time in the preseason with injuries. All are vital to their team's success, the first two even more so than Merriman.

First one healthy to December wins.

As I finished writing that sentence, I decided to scan the rankings again, one last time in search of the surprise team. The bottom eight teams have no shot to make the playoffs, eliminating them. So that means the surprise team is between 16 and 24, meaning somewhere in that group is a playoff team.

Which is it? I just don't know for sure but I know the team is in there.

Damn it, who is it? Any ideas?

Power Rankings
Current		Team	Previous
	1	Colts · Trends	1
	They won four games in November by a total of 10 points. They're not dominating, but they are winning.
	2	Saints · Trends	2
	They get a major test next week when the Patriots come to town for a Monday night game. Is that the end of the unbeaten season?
	3	Vikings · Trends	3
	Brett Favre might be having his best season. Who said he would flop? Oh, me.
	4	Patriots · Trends	5
	They bounced back nicely against the Jets and have a two-game lead in the division, but the Saints will be a great barometer for where they are now.
	5	Cowboys · Trends	7
	They beat the Redskins, but they still looked off. They'll get it going Thursday against the Raiders.
	6	Bengals · Trends	4
	What was that in Oakland? That reminds us a little of why they're still the Bengals. They had no business losing that game.
	7	Chargers · Trends	9
	They are rolling again after a slow start. What else is new for this team? They are the class of the AFC West, just like we thought they'd be.
	8	Cardinals · Trends	10
	They played a decent road game against the Rams, even if they made it interesting in the end. The running game is getting cranked up, which is great for the playoff run.
	9	Eagles · Trends	11
	They snapped a two-game losing streak against the Bears to keep their playoff chances solid. This is the time when the Eagles usually get it going.
	10	Steelers · Trends	6
	They just haven't looked that good this season. Something is off. It might be wise to work on that kickoff coverage.
	11	Giants · Trends	12
	Eli Manning's big game saved their season against Atlanta. Now they face a tough road game at Denver on a short week.
	12	Broncos · Trends	8
	Was their start a fraud? It sure looks like it. They aren't playing well on either side of the ball, but especially on offense.
	13	Jaguars · Trends	16
	If the playoffs started today, they'd be in. Wow. They aren't winning pretty, but they're finding a way.
	14	Packers · Trends	17
	Losing Al Harris and Aaron Kampman for the season will impact that defense in a big way. It's good that the offense is playing better now to help offset it.
	15	Falcons · Trends	14
	They have three consecutive homes games to turn their season back around. The defense just gives up too many big plays.
	16	Dolphins · Trends	21
	Chad Henne is growing up. As he does, they will be better. The playoffs are still possible. But don't lose at Buffalo.
	17	Ravens · Trends	15
	They've been a disappointment so far. If they lose to the Steelers this week, they can say goodbye to the playoffs.
	18	Texans · Trends	13
	That loss at home to the Titans is a big hit to their playoff chances. They just never got it going on offense. Kris Brown choked two weeks in a row. Now the Colts come to town.
	19	Titans · Trends	22
	They are somehow still alive at 4-6. Winning four consecutive games after opening 0-6 is impressive. Vince Young is doing a nice job.
	20	Jets · Trends	18
	Mark Sanchez is playing like a rookie. But it doesn't mean he should sit down. He needs to grow and playing is the right way.
	21	Panthers · Trends	19
	They will likely have a new coach next season and that could mean the end for Jake Delhomme. He just isn't good enough.
	22	Bears · Trends	20
	Is Lovie Smith in trouble? He might be. Cutler sure hasn't lived up to the expectations. He needs help.
	23	49ers · Trends	23
	They can forget the playoffs now. The rest of the season is about finding out if Alex Smith is the long-term answer at quarterback.
	24	Bills · Trends	25
	Perry Fewell's first game showed a team that will still fight. And there was a Terrell Owens sighting. Amazing.
	25	Seahawks · Trends	24
	Count this team as one of the biggest flops of the season. But injuries have played a big part. Is Mike Holmgren coming to the rescue?
	26	Chiefs · Trends	26
	They're on a two-game winning streak. Beating the Steelers is a big step for this young team. The Chiefs are improving.
	27	Redskins · Trends	27
	The best thing to come out of the Cowboys loss is that Jason Campbell played better. They're still fighting.
	28	Raiders · Trends	28
	Say hello to the bench, JaMarcus Russell. Bruce Gradkowski is the guy the rest of the way.
	29	Lions · Trends	31
	Matt Stafford showed against the Browns that he was the right pick last April. They have their building block.
	30	Rams · Trends	29
	Do you feel sorry a little for Steven Jackson playing on this team? He's having a huge season. And now Marc Bulger is out? Ouch.
	31	Buccaneers · Trends	30
	Josh Freeman played like a rookie against the Saints, but he will have those days. It's hard to believe that's a Bucs defense we've been watching. It tells us why Jim Bates was fired.
	32	Browns · Trends	32
	The good news is Brady Quinn is looking better. The bad news is the defense regressed. They have a long way to go to being able to compete for a playoff spot.