An 0-2 start likely curtains for playoff aspirants -- except one

A year ago the New York Giants lost their first two games, then won a Super Bowl. That's a great lesson for struggling teams, except for one thing.

It almost never happens.

Derek Anderson's play is just one of the many problems in Cleveland. (Getty Images)

Nope, if you lose your first two games, you generally have as much chance of reaching the playoffs as the Kansas City Royals. Of the 68 teams that started 0-2 since 2000, only six made it. And since the NFL went to the 16-game format in 1978, the number is 27 -- including three that won Super Bowls.

So it is possible. It's just not likely.

Anyway, that's a long way of saying that there are people out there who should be nervous -- not because they're 0-2 but because their seasons have just been downgraded to critical. I'm not talking about Kansas City, Miami or Detroit, also-rans that never figured in the playoff picture. I'm talking about someone who had hope, and the roll call, please:

Who should worry

1. Cleveland: A year ago the Browns should have made the playoffs but did not. Now they're supposed to make the playoffs but won't -- not, that is, if they don't wake up soon. That goes for everyone -- from an offense that has one touchdown to a defense that can't cover to a head coach who can't resist meaningless field goals. The most disturbing trend with the Browns is their offensive -- OK, I'm going to say it -- Brownout, with last year's eighth-leading scorers held to one lousy touchdown in eight quarters. In 20 series, they not only haven't produced more than one TD and three field goals; they've had 11 possessions with three or fewer plays. Pathetic. Derek Anderson is off. Braylon Edwards has too many drops. And Donte Stallworth is missing. In short, there aren't enough playmakers outside of Kellen Winslow to make a difference. Granted, the Browns drew the short straw with Dallas and Pittsburgh in their first two starts, but they got them at home, where they won their last seven a year ago. Now they play eight of 14 on the road, and they do it at battlegrounds like Jacksonville, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington and Tennessee. Time to dial Brian Sipe.

2. Minnesota: We all knew there was a potential problem waiting to happen in Minnesota; we just didn't know it would become an issue this soon. Like Cleveland, Minnesota was a trendy preseason playoff pick, largely because the Vikings can run and can stop the run -- two elements of championship teams. In fact, a year ago they ranked first in both categories. The problem, of course, was the learning curve for Tarvaris Jackson, even though the guy was 8-4 a year ago. Well, he's 0-2 now, and critics are camping at his door. Look, I'm not about to pin the Vikings' disappointing start on their young quarterback, but his inability to pass consistently and effectively is keeping the club down. In the season opener, the Vikes were comatose once they fell behind by more than seven. Sunday, they couldn't score a touchdown nor pad a 15-point lead, despite rattling Peyton Manning and the Colts. But here's my biggest issue with the Vikings: The next three games. They play Carolina, at Tennessee and at New Orleans. Uh-oh. Brad Childress' unwavering commitment to Jackson is about to be tested.

3. Jacksonville: Pete Prisco keeps telling me not to worry about these guys; that they're getting ready for takeoff, but, I'm sorry, I just don't see it. If the Jaguars can't run, and they're averaging 3.0 yards a carry and 66 per game, they're sunk. And they just proved it against Tennessee and Buffalo. The most alarming item from Sunday's loss was that Jacksonville allowed the Bills to rally for a victory, scoring the go-ahead touchdown with just over four minutes left. That rarely happens to the Jags, and it almost never happens in Jacksonville. Another issue: David Garrard. He's not playing like the quarterback who led them to the playoffs a year ago. Of course, his running backs aren't producing the numbers that helped him a year ago, either. Anyway, Garrard already has three interceptions, which doesn't sound like a big deal except it ties his 2007 total. The good news is that division champ Indianapolis is only a game ahead of Jacksonville, but the bad news is that could become two shortly. Jacksonville plays there this weekend, and the Jags are 1-6 in Indianapolis. Of course, the Colts can't stop the run, either, so maybe this is where Jacksonville makes its move. It better. The last time the Jaguars opened 0-2 they went on to a 5-11 finish. The clock is ticking.

4. Seattle: I hesitate to put the Seahawks here for two reasons: 1) Because they won the NFC West the past four seasons and 2) because of the quality of play in the division. Only this time Arizona looks serious about making a run at the top, and, yeah, I know, it's the Cardinals. But winning a season opener on the road was a signal that things might be different this time around. It's not Arizona, however, that is the Seahawks' concern; it's themselves. They have all sorts of injury problems that depleted their receivers and offensive line, and that's not the worst of it. What in the name of Cortez Kennedy is going on with the defense? There are four Pro Bowl players out there, yet they can't defend Trent Edwards and J.T. O'Sullivan? Please. It's not supposed to be this difficult. I feel for Matt Hasselbeck, but he and his offense will be fine if they keep squeezing 100-yard performances from Julius Jones until Deion Branch and Bobby Engram return. It's that defense, ranked 30th in scoring, that concerns me. A year ago it allowed two opponents 30 or more points each, including one in a meaningless season ender. Now the Seahawks surrendered 34 and 33 in consecutive weeks, and if I'm Mike Holmgren, I want answers. And fast.

5. Cincinnati: Let me begin by saying that most people didn't see the Bengals as playoff material. If they did make it to January, though, they'd hardly be treated as the NFL's answer to the Tampa Bay Rays. But you can forget about that happening. This team isn't in trouble; it's on life support. And I don't want to hear about the defense. Coordinator Mike Zimmer seems to have gotten that under control, which is an accomplishment. But look at Carson Palmer and the offense. OK, good question: What offense? Marvin Lewis said he wanted to run the ball more, but the Bengals average 3 yards a carry. And that's the good news. Palmer has been dreadful, averaging a league-worst 4.14 yards per pass play. To put that in perspective, Arizona's Kurt Warner averages 9.64, and he was supposed to be the Cards' backup. What's worse, we're waiting for our first Palmer touchdown pass, with the Bengals ranked last -- you heard me -- in passing offense and first downs. Incredible. Two weeks ago we wondered what to call Chad Johnson. Now we don't care. That tells you how unwatchable the Bengals are ... or have become. Going down?

Who shouldn't worry

San Diego: Normally, I might be anxious. But the Bolts have been here before, starting 1-3 a year ago before winding up in the conference championship game. The same thing could happen this season, but it won't. I'm not talking about the AFC championship game; I'm talking about the 1-3 start. The Chargers next play the Jets at home, then travel to Oakland and Miami. The way I see it, that's three straight, though you never know with these guys. Let's face it, they got out-and-out shafted in Denver Sunday, with referee Ed Hochuli and a now-you-see-it-now-you-don't replay system costing them a couple of touchdowns. I can't believe it, either, but it's time to stop bellyaching. You can't do anything about it. What San Diego can fix is a defense that leaks like the S.S. Minnow in the first half, with the Chargers hemorrhaging 610 yards and 40 points in losses to Denver and Carolina. Compare that to the 264 yards and 25 points they allow in the second half, and you know why it's up to coordinator Ted Cottrell to straighten his guys out. I know they lost Shawne Merriman, but this is a team game, remember? The Patriots move forward without the league MVP. The Chargers can do the same without Merriman.