LT, other first-round fantasy picks, not so great

Every year one of the top guys taken in fantasy football drafts turns out to be a dud.

Kansas City's Larry Johnson left fantasy owners in the lurch when he finally limped away midway through last season with a career-low 3.5 yards a carry. In 2006, Seattle's Shaun Alexander only played 10 games as his career started sputtering.

This year it's ... everybody. Yes, pretty much the whole first round has been unimpressive, occasionally terrible or, in the case of Tom Brady, no longer participating.

LaDainian Tomlinson has three scoreless games and only one 100-yard game. Adrian Peterson hasn't scored in three of his last four and was stopped cold by the non-threatening Saints defense. Joseph Addai is scoring but with only about 50 yards a game. Brian Westbrook's body parts are falling off. And Steven Jackson's still a Ram.

Still, it's too early to panic on most of these guys. Most should find their groove eventually, so ignore those 30-cents-on-the-dollar trades coming your way (unless one allows you to unload Jackson).

As you again wonder why you didn't just take Tony Romo, here's a look at some players to start in Week 6, some to avoid, and a few long shots who just may pan out:

QUARTERBACKS:

A SAFE BET

-New Orleans' Drew Brees could easily hit 400 yards against the Raiders. This, of course, will be former coach Lane Kiffin's fault, as outraged owner Al Davis will explain at length afterward using a number of visual aids.

-Kurt Warner just took a break from Arizona's film session to send a text message to his wife saying he's really excited about facing the Cowboys' mediocre secondary. He has two or more TDs in 12 of his last 13 games.

-Don't sweat Aaron Rodgers' gamey shoulder as the Packers try to keep up with Seattle. In five games as a starter, he's gone for multiple TDs four times and passed for 300 yards twice. (He has no 6-TD games, however.)

-New England's Matt Cassel was a little slow with that whole "just throw it really far" thing Randy Moss has been trying to explain to him. He'll heave it far and often against the Chargers, who've allowed more yards and touchdowns than anyone.

-Here's something that perhaps nobody's ever said before: Chicago's Kyle Orton and Atlanta rookie Matt Ryan should have good games. Orton has eight TDs his last three games. Ryan is coming off his first two-score game and may be forced to pass a lot.