Peek at the Week: 'Too good to be this bad' Bolts are at it again

Game of the week

New England at San Diego, 8:15 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Chargers by 5½

The story: Once upon a time this was a showdown to decide AFC supremacy. Then Tom Brady got hurt, Shawne Merriman bowed out and the Chargers wilted. So now it's a battle for survival ... the Chargers' survival.

The club is 2-3 and manning the bilge pumps, with running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates hurt, the offensive line ineffective and the defense looking for an identity without Merriman.

San Diego is desperate, and it is home, and that's usually a fail-safe combination. Only these Chargers are hard to figure, flubbing games they have no business losing and falling behind in the first half in each of their five starts. Yes they hammered the Jets, but rewind the videotape: They trailed early in the first quarter there, too.

Something must be done, and it must be done now. I'd look for defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell to blitz Matt Cassell early and often, hoping to force him into the mistakes that should have crippled the Patriots against San Francisco. The rest is up to quarterback Philip Rivers. So he has bruised ribs; he nearly beat these guys in the playoffs on one leg and without L.T. and Gates. Of course, he's also 0-3 against New England.

Something to consider: Including the playoffs, the Patriots are 4-1 in their past five games in San Diego.

Three games I'd like to see

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Tampa Bay by 1½

The Bucs need Jeff Garcia to pick apart the Panthers defense. (Getty Images)

The story: So it's back to Jeff Garcia again, and this is one move I believe benefits Tampa Bay. OK, so the Bucs won three straight with Brian Griese; he also threw six interceptions in two games, and that can't happen -- especially against the Panthers.

Carolina has the league's fourth-best rush defense, which means Earnest Graham probably won't be a factor here, and Garcia will. One thing I know about Garcia is that he doesn't make silly mistakes. In fact, he had fewer interceptions (four) last season than Griese had in two games.

It might be up to Garcia and the Tampa Bay defense to pull this one off. The problem will be stopping a rushing attack that is as effective as it is varied, with the Panthers juggling DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to wear down opponents.

Then there's Steve Smith, and if you double him -- which is always a good idea -- Carolina has Muhsin Muhammad on call waiting. Hey, there will even be a Dwayne Jarrett sighting, with the former Southern California star suiting up in place of D.J. Hackett. This one is all uphill for Tampa Bay.

Something to consider: Beware of Carolina's Jake Delhomme in the fourth quarter. In his career he has 35 pass plays of 25 yards or longer in the fourth period, which ties for first in the NFL. His 32 fourth-quarter touchdown passes rank third over that period.

Baltimore at Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Colts by 4½

The Ravens' skid is not sitting well with Terrell Suggs. (Getty Images)

The story: The Ravens are still seething over that penalty against Terrell Suggs, and I don't blame them. They could be 3-1. Instead, they're trying to end a two-game losing streak against an opponent that is lucky to be off life support. Yep, I'm talking about the Colts, who could easily be 0-4 were it not for Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels.

But that was then, and this is now, and now the Colts have Peyton Manning making clutch passes, the offensive line coming together and extraordinary come-from-behind victories starting to happen. I don't know about you, but I think last weekend's victory starts this club on a tear.

The problem here is twofold: 1) Baltimore has the league's best defense against the run and against the pass, and 2) the Colts still miss Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders. In fact, there is no one worse than Indianapolis stopping the run, which means Baltimore's John Harbaugh is advised to lean more on Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain than Joe Flacco.

The Ravens lead the league in ball control, and that will only increase the pressure on Manning to play mistake-free ball. Trust me, it's tough against these guys. The Ravens have seven interceptions and two defensive touchdowns, and they don't beat opponents as much as they beat them up.

Something to consider: The Colts are winless at the Lucas Oil Dome; they're 0-4, including two preseason losses. Now the good news: They have won their past four at home against the Ravens.

Jacksonville at Denver, 4:05 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Broncos by 3½

Maurice Jones-Drew may find room to run vs. the Broncos. (Getty Images)

The story: Jacksonville is in danger of moving to the critical list, which means the Jaguars should play with urgency here. They did a week ago, and it wasn't enough to beat Pittsburgh. Now they're up against another division leader, and, worse, it's in Denver, where the Broncos rarely lose. You can look it up: They're unbeaten at Invesco Field this season and have won their past six there.

If there is hope it rests with the Denver defense. The Broncos have trouble stopping the run, and the Jags must get Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor on track to take the heat off David Garrard. A week ago, Jacksonville produced 38 yards against Pittsburgh. It could produce that many on one carry against this defense.

The Jags also need to start playing pass defense, and this will be the danger zone this weekend. Jay Cutler was red hot the first three games but has cooled off the past two games, with two TD passes. Look for that to change. Guaranteed, Brandon Marshall causes Jacksonville headaches. The Jags couldn't cover Hines Ward, so what do they do to stop a guy who had 18 receptions in one game? They have two days to figure it out.

Something to consider: The combined record of Jacksonville's first six opponents is 19-9, with the Jags facing four division leaders.

Why Mondays shouldn't get you down

N.Y. Giants at Cleveland, 8:30 p.m. ET | Preview | Endzone: Crennel on hot seat?

The line: Giants by 7½

Derek Anderson is losing his grip on the starting job. (Getty Images)

The story: The Giants are unbeaten. The Browns haven't won at home and haven't won, period, outside of a gimme over winless Cincinnati. So it's a slam dunk, right? Maybe. But the Browns are coming off a bye and expect to have Donte Stallworth back in the lineup. I know, it's not like we're talking Randy Moss, but the Browns need help where they can find it -- especially with their offense in a funk.

Let's be honest: The Browns stink on that side of the ball. They're last in yardage, last in passing and 31st in points per game. If there's intrigue here, it's with quarterback Derek Anderson. He's on the hot seat, and for good reason: Only one passer in the NFL ranks lower, and that's Kansas City's Tyler Thigpen. Memo to Brady Quinn: Stay loose.

The Giants have a receiver back, too, and it's Plaxico Burress. Without him the club put up 44 points against Seattle and sat down Eli Manning in the third quarter. This won't be as painless, but it should be another victory. Unlike Anderson, Manning is making all the passes -- with 16 touchdowns, three interceptions and one Super Bowl in his past nine games.

Something to consider: Manning is 18-4 in his past 22 starts and 3-1 in Monday night games.

Crummy game of the week

St. Louis at Washington, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Redskins by 13½

You will likely see this expression a lot on Sunday. (Getty Images)

The story: It's Jim Haslett's first game as the Rams' interim head coach. Lotsa luck, Jim. He draws one of the league's hottest acts, a Washington team on a four-game tear and that still hasn't committed an offensive turnover.

Worse, Haslett must go to Washington to do it, and the Rams positively stink on the road this season. Not only can't they win there, they're not even close to competitive. Opponents have buried them by a combined score of 75-16, and one of those was against floundering Seattle.

In short, the climb for St. Louis is steeper than the Dow Jones. The Rams are 30th in offense, 31st in defense and last in miracles.

Something to consider: Count on more ball control by Washington. In their past four games, all victories, the 'Skins held the ball for a combined 40:26 longer than its opponents. Washington also has 11 drives of 10 or more plays -- a figure they didn't reach until the eighth game a year ago.

Upset of the week

Jacksonville over Denver | Preview

Can the Jags contain Jay Cutler for four quarters? (Getty Images)

Jacksonville is too good to slip to 2-4. I know how difficult it is to win here, but the Jags might have the right stuff in Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. Denver is vulnerable to the run, and it proved it against Kansas City. I know it pulled itself together a week ago against Tampa Bay, but I don't see how the Broncos answer these guys against the run.

Plus, I think Jacksonville can at least slow down Jay Cutler and the league's second-rated pass offense; I just wonder if it can last four quarters. It's tough enough to hold on for three hours in the thin air of Denver, but Jacksonville has been outscored 40-29 in the fourth quarter this season.

Still, I like the Jags because they won on the road before against a bad run defense (Indy). They can do it again.

Games within the games

Rodney Harrison returning to San Diego. This is his first return to America's Finest City since the Bolts let him walk in 2002. The Patriots were here in the 2006 playoffs. Harrison was not. He was hurt. This is his chance to prove what everyone discovered a long time ago -- the Chargers made a big mistake letting him go.

DeSean Jackson can show the 49ers what they are missing. (Getty Images)

Nick Hardwick vs. Richard Seymour. Remember what happened the last time these two met? I do. "He's cheap and dirty, and the (officials) just let him get away with it the whole time," Hardwick said after the 2007 AFC Championship Game. "That Richard Seymour is the biggest (expletive) I've ever played." Seymour said the two haven't spoken since then, and he has moved on. But the question now is: Can he move through Hardwick on Sunday?

Al Saunders returning to Washington. Saunders called the plays for the Redskins a year ago but left when Joe Gibbs retired. Now Saunders returns, drawing up plays for the winless Rams, and here's hoping he knows someone in the Treasury Department to bail him out. The Rams are dead last in scoring and third-down efficiency.

DeSean Jackson returning to the Bay Area. The 49ers had two chances to draft the former Cal star and passed, each time taking a lineman who hasn't done much this season. Jackson said it's no big deal, but those close to him insist he can't wait to show the club what it missed. Better spend more time on punt coverage, Mike Nolan.

Mike Holmgren's last chance against Green Bay. The former Packers head coach bows out after this season, and I don't know if he ever coaches again. I suspect he does. Nevertheless, this could be his last shot at Green Bay. The Packers ended his season a year ago. This is Holmgren's chance to push them farther down in the NFC North with a fourth straight loss.

Five guys I want to be this weekend

Drew Brees has a good shot to extend his tear. (Getty Images)

1. Minnesota coach Brad Childress: Vikes haven't lost to Detroit at home since 1997.

2. New Orleans QB Drew Brees: He aims for his fourth straight game with at least 330 yards passing. In his career against the Raiders, Brees is 6-2 with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions.

3. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme: He's 7-1 against the Bucs and 4-0 in Tampa.

4. Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb: In his past two starts against San Francisco he has seven touchdowns, no interceptions and a passer rating of 137.7.

5. New York Giants DE Justin Tuck: He has five sacks in his past five games, including Super Bowl XLII.

Just a hunch

Jason Campbell and the 'Skins are taking care of the ball. (AP)

The Redskins run their streak to six of games without an offensive turnover.

Reason: Look at the schedule. It's the Rams they're playing, and not only can't St. Louis stop anyone, it doesn't force takeaways. The Rams have two all year, tied for last in the league.

Meaningful numbers

The Patriots have won their past 12 road games -- the second-best record in NFL history -- and have won 11 straight anywhere in October. Since 2003 they're 20-3 in October, having swept the month in 2003, 2006 and 2007.

The Patriots opened this month with a 30-21 defeat of San Francisco and follow Sunday's game against San Diego with home games against Denver and St. Louis.

Sunday's weather watch

Poll What is the best game of Week 6?   17%  Ravens at Colts     6%  Giants at Browns     4%  Rams at Redskins     18%  Jaguars at Broncos     35%  Patriots at Chargers     19%  Panthers at Buccaneers     Total Votes: 35143

• Atlanta: Dome
• Houston: Partly cloudy, high of 86
• Indianapolis: Partly cloudy, high of 81
• Minneapolis: Dome
• New Orleans: Dome
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Mostly sunny, high of 70
• Tampa: Isolated thunderstorms, high of 86
• Washington, D.C.: Mostly sunny, high of 76
• Denver: Partly cloudy, high of 57
• Phoenix: Sunny, high of 81
• San Francisco: Sunny, high of 68
• Seattle: Partly cloudy, high of 58
• San Diego: Sunny, high of 74

Where we will be

• Pete will be in Indianapolis to pick up the check at Shapiro's ... for anyone who can name the Ravens quarterback who holds the team record for touchdown passes in a season.

• I will be in San Diego to get to the bottom of Bill Belichick in polo shirts.