Peek at the Week: Cowboys try to survive vs. rolling Giants

Game of the week

Dallas at N.Y. Giants, 4:15 p.m. ET | Endzone

The line: Giants by 7½.

The story: Once this was about an NFC East showdown; now it's about the Dallas Cowboys' meltdown. Tony Romo is out. Terence Newman is out. Pacman Jones is gone. Jason Witten is hurt. Brad Johnson is starting. Terrell Owens is wilting. The natives are restless.

I think you get the idea.

There is so much to talk about with these Cowboys, and I haven't even gotten to Wade Phillips' job security. Anyway, the Cowboys aren't given much of a chance here, and there's a reason: the Giants' defense. I mean, how do they solve it? Johnson can't get the ball downfield, which means the Giants can crowd the line of scrimmage, gang up on Marion Barber and defend the short crossing patterns.

Normally, Witten would be a prominent part of that package, but he has a broken rib and might not play. Even if he does, I don't know how he can be effective. Here's an idea: The Cowboys have a bye next week, so why not rest him and have him healthy for the second half of the season?

As you can see, the problem for Dallas will be with an offense that couldn't produce a gain longer than 14 yards a week ago. Barber is the Cowboys' most effective weapon, but good luck trying to penetrate a stacked box. Then there's the passing game, and Dallas has such little faith in Johnson it had Brooks Bollinger practicing with the first team this week.

Not good.

The Giants lead the league in sacks, and I expect they'll be all over Johnson on third-and-long. Watch Justin Tuck, and see how many double-teams he commands; then see if the Cowboys try to get Flozell Adams help with Mathias Kiwanuka. The heat will be on Johnson, with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo bringing pressure from all directions.

The Cowboys' hope rests with a defense that held off Tampa Bay a week ago. It must force Eli Manning into mistakes, and that can happen. Ask Cleveland. But the Giants have more weapons than Tampa Bay, and Manning is a more dangerous deep passer than Jeff Garcia. Points won't be easy, but the Giants should score them -- even if it's with John Carney.

Bottom line: The Giants are in the right spot at the right time. They're home. They're coming off a big win. And Dallas is crippled. Advantage: Big Blue.

Something to consider: Of the past 20 games between these two, 12 have been decided by a touchdown or less -- including nine by four or fewer points and three in overtime.

Three games I'd like to see

Baltimore at Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Browns by 1½

Terrell Suggs can often be found in Cleveland's backfield. (US Presswire)

The story: There's a feeling Cleveland is beginning to get its act together and will make a second-half run at Pittsburgh. This game should tell.

The Browns showed me something by winning in Jacksonville and coming thisclose to beating Washington, but they're still too inconsistent with their passing game. Blame it on Braylon Edwards' drops. Blame it on Derek Anderson's inaccuracy. Blame it on Kellen Winslow's absences. Whatever, they're out of sync, and if they don't correct things here they're in trouble.

We know they won't be able to run against the Ravens -- which says more about a defense that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 26 straight games than it does Jamal Lewis. That puts the heat on Anderson, and all I know about the guy is he is completing less than 50 percent of his passes this season.

Baltimore is on a two-game roll. The Ravens are winning with a rookie quarterback who is beginning to settle down. But Joe Flacco isn't the issue on offense; ball control is. The Ravens' average time of possession is a league-best 33:38, and that's the key to this game. Look for them to feature more Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le'Ron McClain and less Flacco against the league's 24th-ranked run defense.

Something to consider: Beware Terrell Suggs, Cleveland. Eleven of his 50 career sacks have been against the Browns, with Suggs recording at least a half a sack in seven of his past eight games against the Browns.

Green Bay at Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Titans by 5½.

Chris Johnson will be key to keeping the Titans unbeaten. (Getty Images)

The story: Tennessee has all but wrapped up the AFC South, and there are still nine games left. That makes me worry. I'm not talking about the Titans' long-term health as much as I am this game.

Tennessee comes off an emotional victory over Indianapolis and works on a short week; Green Bay hasn't played in two weeks, taking last Sunday off because of a bye. Usually, that is a script for disaster, and it might be too much for even the Titans' defense to overcome.

Make no mistake: Defenses will dictate what happens here. Green Bay has a league-high 13 interceptions, one more than Tennessee, but it is not its pass defense that should determine the outcome. It is the Packers' play against the run, where they are ranked an underwhelming 25th. Tennessee isn't flashy, but the Titans will wear you down with Chris Johnson and LenDale White and occasional glimpses of Kerry Collins thrown in to keep you honest. If the Packers can stop the run, they force Collins to beat them -- and that's where you want to be with Tennessee.

Collins is the perfect quarterback for Tennessee because he understands what the Titans need at the position -- no silly mistakes. He hasn't thrown an interception in four of his six starts and hasn't been sacked in five straight games. Heck, he has been sacked only once all season. Impressive. So is the Titans' run. Given the circumstances, it could be tough to keep it going.

Something to consider: The Packers have won nine of their past 12 following byes, including both games under Mike McCarthy. Overall, they're 15-6 following byes.

New England at Indianapolis, 8:15 p.m. ET | Preview | Endzone

The line: Colts by 5½.

Peyton has seven TDs and four picks in his past four vs. N.E. (Getty Images)

The story: There has been a lot of talk about must-win games this season, and this one qualifies for Indianapolis, off to its worst start since 1998. The Colts have almost no shot of catching Tennessee for the division title. So now it's all about regrouping and aiming for a playoff spot, and the Colts better start with a victory here.

New England feels pretty good about itself after the past two weeks, but it wasn't playing a desperate team at home. That's a problem because those are the most dangerous opponents, especially when it's someone like the Colts.

The good news is Bob Sanders and Joseph Addai should be ready to go, and it's about time. The bad news is Peyton Manning hasn't gotten on track. The perennial All-Pro is throwing too many interceptions, too few touchdowns and, generally, is in a funk he must shake if Indianapolis is serious about hanging around for the playoffs.

The Colts' run defense showed signs of life against Tennessee, and its improvement should continue here -- not only because Sanders is back but because New England has more injured running backs than McDonald's has fries. That puts the pressure on Matt Cassel to produce, and I don't care how much Manning is struggling; if the game comes down to him vs. Cassel, it's an easy decision.

Something to consider: When looking for explanations for the Colts' slow start, turn to third-down conversions. Indianapolis is 12th in the NFL, its worst standing since 1998, Manning's rookie season. The Colts ranked first in that category each of the past three seasons.

Why Mondays shouldn't get you down

Pittsburgh at Washington, 8:30 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Redskins by 1½.

Clinton Portis has four straight 120-yard games. (Getty Images)

The story: Poor Pittsburgh. It can't catch a break in the schedule. One week it's the New York Giants. Now Washington. That's the problem when you belong to the AFC North. There's no comfort in a schedule that features the NFC East and the AFC South as non-division opponents.

The Steelers are one of the league's top teams, and I like their chances here for a couple of reasons: 1) Washington hasn't played all that well lately, sneaking by Cleveland and Detroit after losing to St. Louis; and 2) the Redskins don't attack the pocket like the Giants and Philadelphia -- the two teams that beat Pittsburgh.

Pass protection is the concern for the Steelers. Poor Ben Roethlisberger is on target to get sacked 53 times, the most of his career. It's not just the sacks he's taking; it's the hits. That's why Pittsburgh will dial up its rushing attack against the NFL's fifth-best rushing defense, and Big Ben could use a break.

The Steelers have the weapons -- especially with Santonio Holmes back -- to win this one without the run. Plus, they can attack the pocket with their outside pass rushers, which will make it tough for Jason Campbell to keep his streak of interception-less games intact. The Redskins haven't thrown an interception in their past 12 regular-season games (360 pass attempts), both NFL records.

But this is no ordinary defense Campbell must solve. It's the NFL's best -- first against the pass and third against the run -- which means it will be tough for Washington to win with Campbell or Clinton Portis. Portis is working on a streak of five straight 100-yard games that includes a 145-yard effort against Philadelphia.

Something to consider: Pittsburgh has lost its past four games at Washington and hasn't won there since 1964.

Upset of the week

Green Bay over Tennessee

Charles Woodson has four of Green Bay's 13 picks. (Getty Images)

Sooner or later the Titans are going down, and I say it's sooner. The reason is twofold. First, Green Bay is remarkably successful following byes. Second, the Packers are operating on two weeks' rest; the Titans are operating on five days.

The last time we saw the Packers they shredded Indianapolis in their best performance of the year. The last time we saw Tennessee it shredded the Colts, too, in its most meaningful victory of the season.

I think there could be a hangover effect from the Titans' win, with Tennessee emotionally spent after their latest triumph. That, plus the short week conspire to make the Titans vulnerable.

Crummy game of the week

Tampa Bay at Kansas City, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Bucs by 7½.

Tyler Thigpen had his best game as an NFL QB last week. (Getty Images)

The story: A week ago, the New York Jets tried something that makes no sense -- beat Kansas City with the pass. They succeeded, but it took them nearly 59 minutes to get there.

Tampa Bay won't make the same mistake. The Bucs will hammer the middle of the league's worst-ranked run defense with Earnest Graham and should have an easier time with the Chiefs than Gang Green. Besides, Jeff Garcia won't take the chances Brett Favre did ... and, yes, that's a good thing.

If there's hope for Kansas City it's in the play of quarterback Tyler Thigpen. But tell me: Do you honestly think the Chiefs' spread offense will catch Tampa Bay off guard as it did the Jets? Me neither. So, another long afternoon for Herm Edwards.

Something to consider: The Bucs have not allowed an opposing back to rush for 100 yards or an opposing team to score a rushing touchdown. Dating back to last season, opponents have 205 consecutive carries without a rushing touchdown against Tampa Bay -- the longest active streak in the league.

Games within the games

Kurt Warner was a two-time NFL MVP in St. Louis. (Getty Images)

Kurt Warner returns to St. Louis. He won a Super Bowl as quarterback of the Rams. In his only start there as a visitor he completed 69 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Now the Arizona QB is back to attend Dick Vermeil's induction into the team's ring of honor at halftime and to remind Rams fans just what they lost when he left.

Peyton Manning vs. Bill Belichick. One of my favorite confrontations anywhere, and it seems as if they meet each other this time every year. Since 2005, Peyton is The Man -- winning three of four, including a conference championship game.

Andy Reid vs. Mike Holmgren. Reid was a member of Holmgren's staff in Green Bay and served as the team's quarterbacks coach. Now they meet for the last time in Seattle, where the Seahawks have been atypically vulnerable this season, losing two of three games.

Matt Schaub vs. the road. The Houston quarterback has one win in nine road starts, with his lone victory at Carolina last year. The Texans are in Minnesota this week.

Brett Favre vs. Eric Mangini. Now that Favre has a league-high 11 interceptions, Mangini has intervened -- suggesting he might not take so many chances. Sure. That's like telling Al Davis to wear something in aqua for the next Raiders game.

Five guys I'd like to be this weekend

Trent Edwards will try to shake off a loss in Miami. (Getty Images)

Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards. He hasn't lost to the Jets, and he hasn't lost at home this season.

Pittsburgh linebacker James Harrison. He's Mr. Monday Night, with seven sacks in his past three appearances.

Baltimore safety Ed Reed. He has seven career interceptions vs. the Browns, his most against any opponent.

Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden. He has six straight wins over Kansas City, his longest current streak against any opponent.

Chicago quarterback Kyle Orton. Six of the seven quarterbacks who have played Detroit this season set personal bests in passer rating -- and that includes Orton, who threw for a career-best 334 yards against the Lions earlier this month.

Just a hunch ...

We see Brooks Bollinger at quarterback for Dallas. Two reasons: 1) Bollinger was taking snaps with the first team this week, and 2) the odds say this might be the week to catch the Giants.

Brooks Bollinger might get a chance to escape the sidelines. (Getty Images)

That might need some explaining. Dallas isn't enamored with 40-year-old Brad Johnson and will have him on a short leash. If he struggles as he did a week ago he will get the hook, and Bollinger gets a chance. He's more mobile than Johnson and can throw the ball downfield. He might, just might, have a chance to keep this one close -- provided, of course, he can dodge the Giants' pass rush.

The time might be right, and here's why: The Giants just played Pittsburgh. So what? So teams that play the Steelers this season are 1-5 in games immediately following their games with Pittsburgh. Jacksonville is the only club to buck that trend, beating Denver after a 26-21 loss to the Steelers.

Significant numbers

Through seven games the Green Bay Packers have five defensive touchdowns, one shy of the team record set in 1966. The Packers also have a league-leading 13 interceptions, with at least one in each of their seven games.

Impressive, but I wouldn't expect them to pad that total against the Titans. Tennessee not only leads the league in the takeaway/giveaway department at plus-eight, the Titans have committed only eight turnovers all season -- the sixth-lowest total in the NFL.

Sunday's weather watch

Poll What is the best game of Week 9?   5%  Ravens at Browns     27%  Cowboys at Giants     24%  Packers at Titans     14%  Patriots at Colts     2%  Buccaneers at Chiefs     27%  Steelers at Redskins     Total Votes: 41255

• Buffalo: Partly cloudy, high of 49
• Chicago: Partly cloudy, high of 62
• Cincinnati: Partly cloudy, high of 69
• Cleveland: Partly cloudy, high of 59
• Kansas City: Partly cloudy, high of 75
• Minnesota: Dome
• St. Louis: Dome
• Nashville: Mostly sunny, high of 72
• Denver: Partly cloudy, high of 71
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Mostly sunny, high of 49
• Oakland: Showers, high of 61
• Seattle: Showers, high of 53
• Indianapolis: Partly cloudy, high of 67

Where we will be

• Pete will be in Nashville to keep Vince Young company.

• I'll be at Giants Stadium to warm up Brooks Bollinger in the Dallas bullpen.

• Gregg Doyel will be in Indianapolis to take your phone-in orders at Shapiro's.