Peek at the Week: Desperate Eagles have tools to take down Giants

Game of the week

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia, 8:15 p.m. ET | Endzone

The line: Eagles by 2½

The story: The New York Giants are the best team in the NFC and one of the two best teams in pro football, so why in the world are they underdogs here? I'll tell you why: Because Philadelphia is desperate and because Philadelphia is at home.

Each week we repeat this mantra, but it is worth mentioning again: Desperate teams at home are dangerous teams, and the Philadelphia Eagles are dangerous. They're healthy. The pass rush is back. So are the takeaways. Donovan McNabb is effective. And Brian Westbrook is playing.

That combination makes this too close to call, with the Eagles in perfect position to make a second-half run at the top of the division. To get there you must climb over the defending Super Bowl champions, which is why this game is bigger for the Eagles than the Giants. New York is the most complete team in the business, and while Philadelphia believes it can play with the G-Men, it hasn't proven it.

This is its chance.

A couple of keys here for Philadelphia: The success of Westbrook and the offensive line's ability to protect McNabb. Westbrook is the lynchpin to everything, and no need to remind the Giants: In his past eight games against them (including the playoffs) he has averaged 135.9 yards per game and scored 10 times. Control him, and you force McNabb to beat you.

That's not a problem for the Eagles unless, of course, the protection breaks down. McNabb was sharp against Seattle last week, but there were too many unnecessary hits. The Giants are effective with their front four, especially Justin Tuck, and will try to force McNabb into atypical turnovers. Neither the Eagles nor the Giants make many, with the two combining for 16 -- or as many as nine other clubs each.

Something to consider: McNabb has won seven of his past 10 starts against the Giants, with 14 TDs and only three interceptions. When he has a passer rating of 100 or better the Eagles are 37-1.

Three games I'd like to see

Tennessee at Chicago, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Bears by 2½

Matt Forte will be key to the Bears' success vs. the Titans. (Getty Images)

The story: The Titans are the NFL's only unbeaten team, yet the Bears are the story here. And here's why: If Kyle Orton plays, people think they have a chance for the upset ... and Kyle Orton just might play.

What looked like a high ankle sprain earlier this week has been diagnosed as a simple sprain, with Orton saying he's possible for Sunday. The smart money still is on backup Rex Grossman, and here's hoping he gets his chance. Grossman re-signed with Chicago this year because he wanted one last opportunity to prove himself, and what better stage than this?

Of course, he might've chosen a less formidable opponent. Tennessee is tied for the league lead in interceptions and Grossman is just the guy to pad those numbers. He has a strong arm and likes to air out the football, but his accuracy is less than ideal -- unless, of course, you count opponents as intended receivers. If he has to win this with his arm the Bears could be in trouble.

So how do they pull the upset? Matt Forte must be able to puncture the Titans' front seven; they can't afford a rash of turnovers; and the Chicago defense must force Kerry Collins, not the Titans' rushing attack, to win the game.

Bottle up Chris Johnson and LenDale White, and you put the heat on Collins and a battery of ordinary receivers -- and I'd rather take my chances there. Collins hasn't thrown an interception in three games, but he hasn't thrown a touchdown in three weeks, either.

The Titans might be without linebacker Keith Bulluck (ribs) and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin), and that could be trouble. So make this one close, and keep your eyes on Orton. His availability might determine what happens to Chicago.

Something to consider: The Bears lead the league in takeaways with 19. The Titans are tied for second at 18.

Buffalo at New England, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Patriots by 3½

Marshawn Lynch has yet to top 100 yards this season. (Getty Images)

The story: A month ago Buffalo was on cruise control, the best team in the AFC East and one of the best teams around. But things have spiraled out of control for poor Dick Jauron, and now Buffalo is in one of those must-win predicaments against an opponent they can't seem to solve.

Look it up: The Bills have lost 14 of their past 15 to New England, with their lone victory in Buffalo. That doesn't bode well for Sunday's game. Neither does this: Safety Donte Whitner, one of the team leaders, is out -- joining wide receiver Josh Reed and pass rusher Aaron Schobel on the sidelines.

New England should win this one, but there are a couple of things that could tip the balance the Bills' way: 1) Buffalo's ability to run the ball and 2) its ability to keep it. The Bills' rushing attack has been mediocre largely because its offensive line has been mediocre. You can't exploit holes that aren't there, and Buffalo better find something, anything that gives Marshawn Lynch daylight. A week ago he had 16 yards rushing.

Then there are the turnovers. Buffalo is minus-9 in the takeaway/turnover ratio in its three losses, and I don't need to remind you how they blew last week's game with the Jets. One interception was returned for a touchdown. Another came in the end zone. The Bills had 27 straight plays in the first half without the Jets' offense touching the ball, yet they produced no points. That's how you lose, folks.

Something to consider: Fantasy football owners, listen up: Probably a good week to sit down Buffalo's Lee Evans. In eight career games against New England, he has 18 catches and no touchdowns. In five of those games he was held to no more than two receptions.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, 4:15 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Steelers by 2½.

Peyton Manning tries to end the Colts' skid in Pittsburgh. (Getty Images)

The story: Halfway through the season, and I still don't know what to make of the Colts. They look good. They look bad. They get injured. You're not sure if they're still one of the league's marquee teams, but you do know this is where you find out because Pittsburgh isn't just good; the Steelers are one of the best teams out there.

The Colts' chances increase if Ben Roethlisberger is sidelined by a sore shoulder, and we already know the Colts won't see running back Willie Parker, who re-injured himself a week ago. But they must deal with Dick LeBeau and a swarming defense that leads the league in sacks. The Steelers are also tough against the run, and I don't see how Joseph Addai or Dominic Rhodes or anyone does much of anything here. The Colts rank last in rushing, the Steelers are third defending the run. Draw your own conclusions.

I already have, and I see this as Peyton Manning vs. LeBeau in one of the great chess games of the month. Manning calls the plays that LeBeau tries to counter, and all I know is that if I'm Manning I'd beware of Pittsburgh's outside linebackers. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison have 19½ sacks combined.

Give Manning time, and he can exploit the Steelers' cornerbacks. Of course, that's easier said than done. Rewind the videotape to Pittsburgh's demolition of Washington this week, and you will see what I mean. There was pressure from everywhere, with Jason Campbell so confused he took a season-high seven sacks.

Manning won't take the sacks. But he could be forced into mistakes. He already has nine interceptions.

Something to consider: The Steelers are 19-5 against the Colts, including playoffs, and 13-1 against them at home. The Colts' lone win was in 1968 when the franchise was still in Baltimore. The Steelers have won 12 straight in Pittsburgh since then.

Why Mondays shouldn't get you down

San Francisco at Arizona, 8:30 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Cardinals by 9½

Kurt Warner should have a field day against the Niners. (Getty Images)

The story: Forget the game. I want to know what goes on in the 49ers' locker room at halftime. Mike Singletary promises to tone down his routine, but wait until he gets a load of what the Cards' passing game does to his defense. He might be more interested in dropping players than his pants.

Arizona is serious about making a run at the playoffs, and they proved it in the season opener by winning at San Francisco. So the 49ers aren't exactly the team Bill Walsh assembled two decades ago. But they beat Arizona twice last year, and winning a road game -- any road game -- was important. Now, the Cardinals are coming off a road win in St. Louis and return to a stadium where they have won 9 of their past 11. Barring a complete fizzle, they make it 10 of 12.

Shaun Hill gets the start at quarterback for the 49ers. Is it just me or does it seem as if the 49ers have no plan for what they're doing one week to the next? Hill doesn't determine what happens here; Kurt Warner does. He has four 300-yard games, including the past two.

Something to consider: The Cardinals have a six-game losing streak on Monday nights, including two straight to San Francisco, and are 5-12-1 in Monday night games. Their last Monday night win was a 21-10 defeat of Dallas in 1985.

Upset of the week

Giants over Philadelphia

The Giants will feature heavy doses of Brandon Jacobs. (Getty Images)

So when can you discount the desperate-team idea? When the New York Giants are in town. The Eagles are solid, and they might be in the process of making a second-half charge. But I don't trust anyone playing a big game against the Giants.

New York not only has talent everywhere; that talent plays well on the road, losing once there in the past two years. That win in Pittsburgh last month showed me something, and the Eagles should pay attention. These guys are better than last year's Super Bowl champions.

Philadelphia's pass rush is supposed to flummox Eli Manning, but I'm not sure how much the Giants are going to throw the ball -- not with that battery of running backs hammering the middle of the Philadelphia defense.

Anyway, I'm sticking with the Giants until they demonstrate they can't be trusted, and they're nowhere close to that now.

Crummy game of the week

Jacksonville at Detroit, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Jaguars by 6½

Daunte Culpepper starting for the Lions? It could happen. (AP)

The story: So now Jack Del Rio sends his leading tackler, linebacker Mike Peterson, home and switches the lockers of several players, and we're left to wonder what it all means. I'll tell you what it means: The Jaguars are coming apart, and are in such a backpedal I have no conviction they can win this game.

They should, especially with the Lions talking about dusting off quarterback Daunte Culpepper, but the Jags are coming off a loss in Cincinnati ... to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Somewhere along the line the Lions will win one, and this might be it. But I can't believe the Jags lose a third straight to a losing team, especially if the Lions hand the ball to Culpepper. What? Greg Landry wasn't available? If the Jags lose this one Del Rio should leave the team in Detroit for a day and consider changing players instead of lockers.

Something to consider: In two career meetings with the Lions, running back Fred Taylor is averaging 163.5 rushing yards rushing. That's not likely to happen here. Not by a long shot. Taylor hasn't rushed for more than 25 yards in any of his past five games.

Games within the games

Jim Johnson vs. Steve Spagnuolo. Almost everything Spagnuolo is today he learned in Philadelphia as an assistant with Johnson. These are two of the best coordinators anywhere, and they have the numbers to prove it. The Giants lead the NFC in sacks; the Eagles are second.

Javon Walker's Raider days might be nearing their end. (Getty Images)

Ron Rivera vs. expectations. The Chargers fired defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell during their bye, and now everything's supposed to be OK with the league's 25th-ranked defense. Stay tuned, though Sunday won't exactly reveal much: The Bolts play hapless Kansas City.

Matt Forte vs. Chris Johnson. A perfect opportunity to tell which running back is more valuable. Johnson is the league's leading rookie rusher with 715 yards, while Forte has 641. Both also lead all rookie backs in yards from scrimmage, with Johnson (879) 10 yards ahead of Forte.

Javon Walker vs. The Turk. The Raiders cut high-priced cornerback DeAngelo Hall this week, and there are rumors that Walker could be next. Gee, maybe Al Davis should've listened to Mike Shanahan after all. In five of the six games Walker played this year he has two or fewer catches.

Tyler Brayton returns to Oakland. Once upon a time he was a first-round pick by the Raiders. But they let him walk after five seasons, and he signed with Carolina. Now he returns to Oakland as a starting defensive end for the Panthers. I'd duck if I were you, JaMarcus Russell. The guy has something to prove.

Five guys I'd like to be this weekend

1. New England coach Bill Belichick. He owns the Bills, with the Patriots beating them 14 of their past 15 games, including the past seven in Foxborough.

Drew Brees comes out of a bye to face a favorite foe. (Getty Images)

2. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees. He's 4-0 against Atlanta with seven touchdowns, one interception and a 107.6 passer rating.

3. New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning. He has won five of his past six against the Eagles. He's also 12-1 in his past 13 road games.

4. Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson. He aims for his fourth straight game with 100 yards rushing.

5. Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner. He is 8-1 lifetime against the 49ers, with 20 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and a passer rating of 100.2. When Warner throws 15 or more times and produces a rating of 100-plus his teams are 34-3.

Just a hunch

Kerry Collins and the Titans know how to close out a game. (Getty Images)

If the Titans are close to Chicago in the fourth quarter, the Bears are cooked. Tennessee is one of the league's most effective closers, outscoring opponents 69-30 in the final period -- the league's top fourth-quarter differential.

The Bears outscore their opponents 44-40 in the fourth quarter, but that doesn't tell the story of their three losses. They blew a game in Carolina in the fourth period, then did the same thing against Tampa Bay -- with the Bucs erasing a 10-point disadvantage in the final 3:30.

Then there was Atlanta, and pardon Chicago fans if they will pass on this one. The Bears lost after scoring the go-ahead touchdown with 11 seconds left.

Significant numbers

The prospects aren't good for a big game from Steve Slaton. (Getty Images)

It's no secret that the Baltimore Ravens are the toughest defense against the run, with the club extending its streak to 27 games without an opponent running for 100 yards.

But that streak is nothing new. The Ravens have been the toughest on opponents' running games for years, and the envelope, please: Dating back to 1999, when Rex Ryan was hired as the team's defensive line coach, the Ravens have allowed the fewest 100-yard rushers (18) in the NFL.

Pittsburgh is second with 20, and Jacksonville and San Diego are tied for third with 27. Steve Slaton, that's your cue to sit down this weekend.

Sunday's weather watch

Poll What is the best game of Week 10?   15%  Titans at Bears     54%  Giants at Eagles     3%  Jaguars at Lions     8%  Bills at Patriots     20%  Colts at Steelers     Total Votes: 28037

• Atlanta: Dome
• Chicago: Rain/snow showers, high of 39
• Detroit: Dome
• Houston: Sunny, high of 79
• Miami: Partly cloudy, high of 79
• Minneapolis: Dome
• Foxborough, Mass.: Sunny, high of 55
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Sunny, high of 55
• Oakland: Sunny, high of 61
• Pittsburgh: Showers, high of 43
• San Diego: Partly cloudy, high of 64
• Philadelphia: Mostly sunny, high of 55

Where we will be

•  Pete will be in Foxborough, Mass., to find an easier way of saying BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

•  I will be in Chicago to organize campaign rallies at Grossman headquarters.

•  Gregg Doyel will be in Pittsburgh to order the Byron Leftwich at Primanti Brothers.

•  Mike Freeman will be in Philadelphia to lead the Eagles, with arms held high, up the steps of the Art Museum.