So we have three teams tied for first in the NFC North, and you want to know who wins the division. Well, you've come to the right spot because I have the answer.
The winner of the Dec. 22 game between Green Bay and Chicago will crown the North champion.
The game is at Soldier Field, so that should favor the Bears. Except they just got torched by the Packers, 37-3, in a mismatch that exposed their defensive shortcomings. That makes Dec. 22 a virtual toss-up, which is appropriate considering the current state of the division.
It also makes it the critical game of the NFC North season. Find me a winner, and you have yourself the winner for the division. Sorry, Minnesota.
In the meantime, let's handicap the field. If you're ready, so am I.
Chicago
What's to like: The schedule. There's not one opponent with a winning record. In fact, the combined record of their last six opponents is 10 games below .500. They're in the middle of a two-game slide, but they catch a break this weekend with St. Louis -- that's a win. Then it's off to Minnesota, and that can be tricky -- especially with Kyle Orton 0-2 there. But then look what's ahead: Three straight home games, including that Monday night date with Green Bay. Also included is a Dec. 11 date with New Orleans, and always bet against a dome team in Chicago in December.
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| The Bears need Kyle Orton to make plays in order to win the NFC North. (Getty Images) |
Why they could win: Orton is back to make plays at quarterback, and keeping the ball longer on offense means keeping the defense off the field. Good idea.
Why they could not: Their defense is out of synch. You can look it up: The Bears are 19th overall and 30th against the pass. Plus, they can't rush the pocket. Alex Brown is the club leader with three, or 10.5 fewer than Miami's Joey Porter. I spoke to an assistant coach whose team played the Bears this season, and he used the word "discombobulated" to describe their defense. Works for me.
X-factor: Return specialist Devin Hester. Earlier this season, I said it was a mistake to play the guy more than occasionally at wide receiver. Now I know it is. He's almost no factor as a return man, and there was no one better the past two years. Hester is a weapon that could go off at any moment, but I've just about given up hope.
Combined record of remaining opponents: 24-36.
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| Ryan Grant rushed for 145 yards and a touchdown in the Nov. 16 meeting with the Bears. (Getty Images) |
Green Bay
What's to like: Grant. Back in early October, I listed him as my most disappointing player. But then November happened, and I should've known better. In the last two months he's become the Von Ryan Express. Remember what happened a year ago? The Packers plugged him at mid-season and the guy went off -- rushing for 956 yards and a 5.1-yards per-carry average. Now he's coming off his second 100-yard game in four weeks, which tells you Grant gets better as the weather gets colder. Good for Green Bay. You win there this time of year by running, not throwing, the ball, and Grant just reminded the Bears.
What's not to like: The defense against the run. The Packers rank 27th in that department, and that could cripple them down the stretch -- particularly with linebacker Nick Barnett and defensive end Cullen Jenkins missing. Two of their opponents are Carolina and Jacksonville, each ranked in the top 11 rushing offenses, and a third is 15th-ranked Houston. Then comes Matt Forte. I don't care what happened last weekend -- let's see the Pack stop him Dec. 22 in Chicago.
Why they could win: Because their defense creates mistakes (the Packers lead the league in interceptions) and turns them into touchdowns. Look it up: The Packers' defense has a franchise-record seven scores off returns, three shy of the league record set in 1998 by Seattle. Hey, they have nine TDs from their defense and special teams, and that could get you a job in Oakland. It is one short of the Raiders' team total.
Why they could not: I don't completely trust Rodgers in crunch time. This is his first go at it, so I don't know how he responds to playoff atmospheres. Yeah, he held up well in Game One against Minnesota, and that could have been torture for Brett Favre's successor, no matter who he was. But this is unfamiliar territory. You knew what you were getting with Favre; with Rodgers, we're learning each week.
X-factor: Rodgers. He's a rookie as a starter. Let's see how he handles the pressure of a stretch drive.
Combined record of remaining opponents: 25-35 -- and there's a bonus. The season finale is with winless Detroit.
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| Pat (94) and Kevin Williams have combined for 72 tackles and seven sacks on the season. (Getty Images) |
Minnesota
What's to like: Adrian Peterson and the league's fourth-ranked rushing attack. Peterson can score from anywhere on the field and he has. Backup Chester Taylor is no slouch, either, a threat as a receiver or running back. So Gus Frerotte isn't one of the premier quarterbacks out there -- he's good enough to make opponents respect the pass, which means they can't always stack the box for Peterson.
What's not to like: The schedule. There are three opponents with winning records, and they come in succession at the end of the year. First, there's a Dec. 14 game at Arizona. Uh-oh, the Cards don't lose at home. Then there's a Dec. 21 game against Atlanta, which could still be in the playoff mix. Then comes the season finale against the New York Giants, and if the Giants aren't coasting by then the Vikings are in deep kimchi.
Why they could win: They have two of the game's critical elements for making the playoffs -- the ability to both run and stop the run. Peterson leads the league in rushing, averaging five yards per carry, and that's with defenses hanging all over him. The defense ranks second against the run, which is noteworthy because that puts it ahead of Baltimore -- a club that hasn't allowed an opposing back to rush for 100 yards in 29 straight games.
X-factor: There are two of them: Pat and Kevin Williams. They're the Vikings' Pro Bowl defensive tackles, and they're as good as they are massive. Only one problem: Their names have been mentioned in connection with testing positive for a banned diuretic, which means they could face possible suspensions. If that happens, adios, Minnesota.
Combined record of remaining opponents: 31-29.
