Peek at the Week: Protection in your pocket? Key in N.E.

Game of the week

Pittsburgh at New England, 4:15 p.m. ET | Endzone

The line: Patriots by 1

The story: This comes down to three keys: Protection, protection, protection. If you have it, you win.

Pittsburgh hasn't had it, and neither have the Patriots. Poor Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 32 times, which ties him with the 49ers' J.T. O'Sullivan for second in the league. Any idea who leads? If you answered "Matt Cassel" you win three rounds with Gregg Doyel at his next amateur boxing night.

The problem here is the Patriots are up against the best pass rushing team in the AFC and one of the best in the business. The key will be how New England's tackles, tight ends and blocking backs handle the flurry of blitzes Cassel is bound to see -- with linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley leading the charge. All they have done this season is combine for 22.5 sacks and countless quarterback pressures. If the Patriots can't handle them, they can't handle the Steelers.

So, you say, maybe they keep them off balance with the run. Forget it. There's a better chance of Tom Brady playing in December. The Steelers held the Jacksonville Jaguars to 38 yards rushing and the Giants to 83 in 35 attempts. Running against these guys is a waste of time.

That takes us to the Steelers. They can run and probably will here ... Willie Parker or no Willie Parker. Pittsburgh didn't have him for games against Baltimore and Jacksonville, yet still won -- and won because it had the smarts to pick up Mewelde Moore. But if the Steelers can't, look for Roethlisberger to pick apart the Patriots' secondary.

The key, as we have said, is protection, protection, protection. The Steelers don't give it to Roethlisberger, who has absorbed almost as many blows this season as the Dow. But Big Ben catches a break with the Pats' defense because: 1) There is no Adalius Thomas, and 2) they have trouble getting to the quarterback. They have 21 sacks all season.

Give Roethlisberger time, and he will find receivers. Give Cassel time, and he might find receivers. The difference: One quarterback will have less time to find open targets, and it's not Big Ben.

Something to consider: Including the playoffs, the Patriots are 5-1 vs. the Steelers since 2000.

Three games I'd like to see

New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Tampa Bay by 3½

Jeff Garcia's season got off to a rough start in New Orleans. (US Presswire)

The story: When the two met in the season opener, Jeff Garcia was so erratic he was benched. Now he's back, and he has something to prove -- namely, that he can beat these guys.

I like his chances because I don't like the Saints' defense. Garcia can beat you in so many ways, and he's playing now as he did a year ago when he took the Bucs into the playoffs. So Tampa Bay lost Earnest Graham. The Saints will have trouble stopping Warrick Dunn, Cadillac Williams and, frankly, Garcia.

The hope for New Orleans is that its offense looks as good here as it did against Green Bay on Monday night -- especially if Reggie Bush is back. But I don't see it. The Bucs will pressure Drew Brees, and while they might not sack him -- he has been dumped only nine times all year -- they will pressure the pocket, and that can mean fatal mistakes. Remember, only six teams have more interceptions than the Bucs.

Nevertheless, Brees shredded these guys the first time they met -- with 343 yards passing, three touchdowns and one victory. But that was then, and this is now, and now Tampa Bay is where it wants to be: On a three-game roll and home, where it is unbeaten.

Something to consider: The Bucs are 5-1 when the opposing team scores first, reversing a trend that had them 5-25 from 2004-2007 when opponents put up the first points.

N.Y. Giants at Washington, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Giants by 3½

Clinton Portis will carry a heavy load again for the 'Skins. (US Presswire)

The story: The NFC East was sorted out early because no one could beat the Giants, and that includes Washington. The Redskins opened the season against them and their offense was put to sleep, with Jason Campbell and an efficient passing game reduced to virtually nothing.

Things have changed, and Campbell is a big reason. He seems comfortable with coach Jim Zorn's West Coast offense and doesn't make mistakes. It took him nine games before he even threw an interception. The Redskins are balanced on offense, with Clinton Portis producing a raft of 100-yard games, but they will struggle ... again ... to solve the G-Men.

That's because the Giants are sound in so many areas. They lost Plaxico Burress one week and hammered Seattle. Then they lost Burress and running back Brandon Jacobs and hung the first home loss on Arizona. They might not have Burress (hamstring) again this week, but so what? They're deep. Real deep. And if you're going to beat them you better force mistakes early.

One problem: The Giants don't make mistakes. Neither does Washington. Both teams have 10 turnovers this year, with only Miami (9) better. So maybe this just comes down to talent, and if that's the case go with the Giants. They have won 14 of their past 15 and are playing with the confidence that pushed them through last season's playoffs.

Something to consider: If emotions become a factor, Washington should have the edge. Before the game the Redskins will induct the late Sean Taylor as the 43rd member of their Ring of Fame. The game is the first following the first anniversary of Taylor's death.

Chicago at Minnesota, 8:15 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Vikings by 3

Matt Forte will be first in the Vikings' defensive plans. (US Presswire)

The story: Finally, some separation in the NFC North. One of these teams will be alone in first place when this one is over, and it's hard not to like Minnesota. The Vikings have won their past four at home, including a 28-27 decision over Green Bay, but that's not what can swing this game.

This is: Minnesota is tough on the run, with only Pittsburgh ranked higher in run defense. Chicago's offense is built on the legs of Matt Forte, who leads the Bears in rushing and receiving, and you can see where this is going. Bottle up Forte and what happens? You force Kyle Orton to beat you.

I remember what Tennessee coaches told me after the Titans knocked off Chicago earlier this month. When I asked how they prepared for Rex Grossman that afternoon they basically said they didn't; it was Forte they targeted. If you can check him you put the quarterback on the spot.

Now let's get one thing straight: Orton can win games, and he can win this game. It's not as if the Vikings' secondary is hermetically sealed. The Vikes are 22nd against the pass and can be beaten -- with Orton Exhibit A. He put up 283 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions against them earlier this season, and the Bears swung for a season-high 48 points.

Of course, the Vikings produced 41 points that afternoon. Minnesota will try to run but chances are it can be more effective going bombs-away on the 30th-ranked pass defense. The last time they met, Gus Frerotte threw for a season-high 298 yards and led the Vikes on touchdown drives of 67, 70, 68, 64 and 75 yards. Of course, he also threw four interceptions.

Something to consider: The Bears have six return touchdowns this season, behind only Green Bay (9) and Tampa Bay (7). Three of the Bears' returns were against Minnesota.

Why Mondays shouldn't get you down

Jacksonville at Houston, 8:30 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Texans by 3

Steve Slaton has taken over as the No. 1 back in Houston. (US Presswire)

The story: Welcome to the battle for last place in the AFC South. Jacksonville was supposed to be a Super Bowl dark horse, but the Jags won't make the playoffs and Jack Del Rio is beginning to squirm. The Texans, meanwhile, were a dark horse for the playoffs, but they're not going to make it, either. So who's the bigger disappointment? We have four quarters to make the call.

Jacksonville is on a two-game slide and, frankly, happy to get out of town. The Jags are 1-5 at home, 3-2 on the road. But their only victory at home was -- you guessed it -- over Houston, a 30-27 decision in OT.

Once the Jags were one of the league's top rushing offenses, but they seem to have lost their identity. Now they're 18th, with Fred Taylor beginning to slow down. Once, they were one of the league's top defenses, too, but that has also gone another direction. Like south. The Jags are 19th against the run, 14th against the pass, 14th overall and 14th in points allowed.

In other words, they're pretty much ordinary.

With only one win in their past four starts, the Texans might be just the right opponent for Del Rio's team to straighten itself out, but don't count on it. In Steve Slaton they have the running back they sought for years, and in Andre Johnson they have one of the league's most dangerous weapons. Good luck stopping him. He has five games this season with 10 or more catches.

If there's hope for Jacksonville it's that Sage Rosenfels keeps throwing interceptions. He has at least one in every start, and the Texans have a league-high 17 and an AFC-high 24 turnovers.

Something to consider: Not only is this Houston's first Monday night appearance, but only four starters on offense and five on defense have been in Monday night games. Twenty-nine of the team's 53 players have not.

Upset of the week

Pittsburgh over New England | Preview

Matt Cassel won't have time to find Randy Moss deep. (US Presswire)

I talked about it above, and I'll mention it again. I just like the Steelers' chances of rattling Matt Cassel better than I like New England's chances of getting to Ben Roethlisberger. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will throw everything and everyone at Cassel, and I'm not exactly going out on a limb saying he comes nowhere close to 400 yards passing again.

So Cassel throws off three- and five-step drops. That minimizes the damage of deep threat Randy Moss and makes the Steelers an attractive choice. So does Roethlisberger, for this reason: He will have more time to throw than Cassel, and I like his chances to pick apart a depleted defense.

Plus, there is this: Pittsburgh had 10 days to get ready for this game; New England had six. I know it's a must-win game for the Patriots, but every way I look at this one it keeps coming up Pittsburgh.

Crummy game of the week

Kansas City at Oakland, 4:15 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Raiders by 3

The Chiefs' last road win came at Oakland in Oct. 2007. (US Presswire)

The story: Wow, it's hard to find a club in more trouble than the Silver and Black, but we have one here. Kansas City not only has one victory this season, it has one victory in its past 20 games -- and that includes a couple of losses to the Raiders. Of course, the Chiefs' skid ends when you get to that 21st game which was played in ... yep, Oakland. So Kansas City at least is somewhere it knows it can win.

The problem for the Chiefs is injuries. There are all sorts of them, particularly on defense. And they're working with a third-string quarterback. But look long and hard at Tyler Thigpen: He might be the Chiefs' starter for 2009.

There's not much to say about this game except it will be difficult ... if not impossible ... for the Raiders offense not to gain a passing grade. Kansas City is a mess on defense, with six sacks all season and a dead-last ranking in yards. The good news: Kansas City has more takeaways (21) than all but four clubs.

Something to consider: With a victory, the Chiefs will become the first team to win six consecutive road games in Oakland. Four of their past five victories there were decided by seven or fewer points.

Games within the games

Former L.T. understudy Michael Turner is thriving in Atlanta. (US Presswire)

1. Michael Turner returning to San Diego. Falcons fans can be grateful he stays in America's Finest City for no more than one weekend. The Chargers had him for years but had no choice but to let Turner walk because LaDainian Tomlinson is on the roster. Last time I checked, Turner had 13 touchdowns and L.T. had six.

2. Matt Light vs. James Harrison. How does Light not get suspended for last weekend's smackdown? I don't know, either, but the Patriots should be relieved. The All-Pro tackle is the last speed bump between Harrison and quarterback Matt Cassel. Harrison leads the Steelers in sacks, forced fumbles and pressures and brings his track shoes to this game.

3. Dewayne Robertson returning to Giants Stadium. Once this was home for the big man. Then the Jets dumped Robertson, acquired nose tackle Kris Jenkins, and -- presto! -- the 29th-ranked run defense is now the league's third-best. Jenkins made the switch to the 3-4 and flourished; Robertson made the switch to the 4-3 and struggled. I think you get the idea: The deal worked out for the Jets, and expect fans to remind Robertson.

4. Derek Anderson vs. the future. Anderson is supposed to be on a short rope that extends only as far as the end of this season, and I believe it. His future isn't in Cleveland because Brady Quinn is in Cleveland. So this is a chance to make a case for himself for the next team interested in a starting quarterback.

5. Dwight Freeney vs. Joe Thomas. Forget the final score. The better contest is here, with two of the game's elite players at their positions going mano-a-mano. Freeney has five sacks in three games against Cleveland, but none of those contests involved Thomas. Gentlemen, start your engines.

Five guys I'd like to be this weekend

Peyton Manning, unbeaten vs. the Browns, is getting hot. (US Presswire)

1. Washington wide receiver Santana Moss: He has eight touchdowns in eight games vs. the Giants, but that's not why he makes this list. This is: He has three career three-TD games, and two have been against Big Blue.

2. Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning: He's on a roll, with nine touchdowns and one interception his past four games, all of them victories. Now he gets to play the league's 20th-ranked pass defense. Manning is working on a streak of five straight games with two or more touchdown passes, and when he hits that figure the Colts are 42-7. Plus, he's 4-0 lifetime against Cleveland.

3. Carolina running back DeAngelo Williams: He looks for his fifth straight game with 100 yards rushing, and the Packers are 26th vs. the run.

4. Green Bay running back Ryan Grant: He's home, and that is always good. Grant has 100 yards rushing in his past two home starts.

5. Tampa Bay quarterback Jeff Garcia: His career best in touchdown passes is four in one game, and he did it twice against the Saints. Plus, his two highest passer ratings (149.3 and 145.8) are against New Orleans.

Just a hunch

We know Brandon Jacobs, and Cedric Benson is no Jacobs. (US Presswire)

The Cincinnati Bengals don't rush for 50 yards.

That's a bold statement, but consider the facts: 1) They're playing the Baltimore Ravens, a defense that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season; 2) They don't have a running back with more than 318 yards all season, and he averages 3 yards a carry; and 3) They almost surely play from behind, which means a lot of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Ravens are physical and confident, and they would be the league's top-ranked run defense had they not run into the Giants' troika of backs. Cedric Benson is no Brandon Jacobs, and the Bengals' backs are about to get cooked.

Significant numbers

Eli Manning pilots the NFL's top-scoring team entering Week 13. (US Presswire)

If you paid attention to Thursday's games (and good luck) you probably guessed that scoring is up this season -- especially with anyone playing Detroit.

Last weekend a single-week record 837 points were scored -- the first time in league history over 800 points were scored in one weekend. Furthermore, 18 teams scored at least 27 points each, another first. Why? You saw how the Lions and Seahawks play defense. You tell me.

For the season, games are averaging 45 points per, the highest figure for the first 12 weeks of any season since 1970, and look for that number to climb after Thursday. The three games on Thanksgiving averaged 56 points each.

Oh, one other thing: The four highest-scoring teams in the NFL are the New York Giants, the New York Jets, Arizona and New Orleans. All are on track to set franchise records.

Sunday weather watch

Poll What is the best game of Week 13?   8%  Saints at Bucs     13%  Bears at Vikings     4%  Chiefs at Raiders     2%  Jaguars at Texans     23%  Giants at Redskins     50%  Patriots at Steelers     Total Votes: 77167

• Buffalo Snow showers, high of 39.
• Cincinnati Rain/snow showers, high of 43.
• Cleveland Snow showers, high of 39.
• Green Bay Snow showers/wind, high of 33.
• St. Louis Dome.
• Tampa Bay Thunderstorms, high of 73.
• Washington, D.C. Mostly cloudy, high of 44.
• San Diego Sunny, high of 71.
• Foxborough, Mass. Mostly cloudy, high of 43.
• East Rutherford, N.J. Mostly cloudy, high of 44.
• Oakland Sunny, high of 69.
• Minneapolis Dome.

Where we will be

• Pete will be in Tampa readying for takeoff with Drew Brees.

• I will be at Giants Stadium to help Fireman Ed with spelling.

• Mike Freeman will be in Foxborough getting Matt Light ready to spar with Gregg Doyel.