Game of the Week
Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 4:15 p.m. ET | 
Endzone
The line: Ravens by 1½
The story: Remember the good ol' days of Buddy Ryan and body bags? They're here again with Buddy's son, Rex, overseeing one of the two best defenses in the league. The other is Sunday's opponent, and when these two clubs are finished the football field could like the aftermath of Gettysburg.
Forget total points; I want to know the over/under on the casualty count.
There will be no rougher, tougher, more physical game this year than this one, and this time there are no bounties. At least that's what I'm told. Anyway, the NFL should rate this game PG-13 for violence, and you should not watch it in 3-D.
I look at Baltimore's Ray Lewis and wonder if there's a more active linebacker in the business; then I see Pittsburgh's James Harrison and realize there is. The linebackers from both clubs will wreak havoc, with Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau unleashing a full-court press on quarterback Joe Flacco.
That is no surprise. Flacco is a rookie. The Steelers like to blitz. Put the two together, and you better have tight ends and running backs available to step in as speed bumps. Flacco is the X-factor here. I don't worry how Ben Roethlisberger responds to pressure because he has been in this spot so many times before. But Flacco is new to it, and while I love his resilience and even-keeled demeanor I worry how he handles the pressure of a big game.
And make no mistake: This is as big for the Ravens as it is for Pittsburgh. No, bigger. With a win, they can tie for first in the division. With a loss, they could be in deep kimchi because they travel to Dallas next weekend.
This game is a tough call, but it will come down to turnovers. Whoever makes them loses. A week ago, it was Dallas and the Steelers prevailed. The first time these two met it was Baltimore and the Steelers won again. Pittsburgh is among the league leaders with 25 takeaways, but it is one behind Baltimore, which leads the NFL in interceptions with 22.
That means Roethlisberger must step carefully. Pittsburgh won't run on the Ravens -- nobody but the Giants has -- so the squeeze is on Big Ben. Of course, it's on Flacco, too, with Joe trying to solve a defense that ranks first in seven categories and is tied for first in sacks with 45.
If it's Big Ben vs. Flacco, I'm sticking with the veteran. Me? I think this comes down to the kickers, with a last-minute field goal determining the division.
Something to consider: In his past two starts against Baltimore, Roethlisberger has completed 67.5 percent of his passes for 400 yards, six touchdowns, one interception and a 129.2 passer rating. He also won both games.
Three games I'd like to see
Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Falcons by 2½
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| Dangerous Roddy White deserves attention from the Bucs. (US Presswire) |
That means they could be vulnerable except ... Tampa Bay is coming off a short week and a week where it was ravaged by Carolina's running game. So what does Atlanta do well? Yep, run the ball. I don't care if it's Michael Turner or Jerious Norwood, the Falcons find enough holes in opposing defenses to rank as the league's second-best rushing offense.
The first time these two met, the Bucs checked Turner to 42 yards. Normally, that might mean something, except the first time the Bucs met Carolina they held DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to 39 yards combined, and you see how well that worked out Monday.
The difference here is that Atlanta has the hot quarterback Carolina did not. There are few passers out there right now performing better than Matt Ryan, and the Bucs better respect him and his favorite target, Roddy White, otherwise they play from behind. But in scheming for those two you sacrifice something, and it's usually a defender to cover the run -- which means Turner could find the holes that were there for Williams and Stewart.
That said, I never, ever, ever underestimate coach Jon Gruden and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin in big games. The Bucs will find something to confound Ryan and Co. The question is: What? I trust Jeff Garcia, the league's most underappreciated quarterback, though he is questionable with a calf injury. But I don't trust Tampa Bay's running game. Not now. So the Bucs might be forced to play from behind again, and that's not good.
Something to consider: In six homes games Ryan has five touchdown passes, one interception and a passer rating of 107.2.
Minnesota at Arizona, 4:05 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Cards by 2½
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| Kurt Warner's Cards might have a hangover from clinching. (US Presswire) |
It's not just that the Cardinals are tough at home; it's that they almost never lose there. Look it up: One defeat this season, and it was to the defending Super Bowl champions. Kurt Warner is a different quarterback at home, with 12 touchdown passes and three interceptions, and his job now is to solve the league's 20th-ranked pass defense.
Memo to Minnesota's equipment manager: Don't forget to pack the asbestos-lined jerseys.
There couldn't be two more contrasting offenses: Minnesota can run, can't pass; Arizona can pass, can't run. So it comes down to which is more effective. If you ask me, I don't see how the Cardinals lose because, frankly, I don't trust Tarvaris Jackson to win a big game. Adrian Peterson is a load, but when the Cards stack the box with eight and nine defenders even he has to struggle to find daylight.
Minnesota better hope there's something more in the building, something like a division hangover. Maybe Arizona is so jubilant with its first NFC West title that the Cards relax -- enough, at least, to make them vulnerable.
We all know the Vikings should be jacked up. They realize they must win two of the next three. And while their final two are home, they are also against Atlanta and the Giants. Stealing one here would be huge.
Something to consider: The Cardinals not only have won eight of their past nine at home; they have scored 415 points in their past 14 homes games -- an average of 29.6 per contest, tops in the NFL over that period.
N.Y. Giants at Dallas, 8:15 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Cowboys by 2½
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| Tony Romo's late-season struggles are well documented. (US Presswire) |
The Cowboys played well enough against Pittsburgh last week to win, but they fizzled because Tony Romo threw critical interceptions -- and his play determines what happens here. If Romo is El Stinko again it's over, and the Jason Garrett watch begins. But I don't know if that happens a) because Romo has a history of success against the Giants, and b) because Big D now stands for desperation ... and you know what I think of desperate teams at home.
Running back Marion Barber might be back, and color Jerry Jones happy if he is. The Cowboys' owner spliced, sliced and diced the guy after the Pittsburgh loss, only to backtrack this week when he realized how misguided his comments were. But Barber doesn't determine what happens to Dallas; Romo does, and it's hard to get past that 4-8 record in December and January.
Of course, it's hard to get past the Giants' latest loss, too. Some people see it as an aberration, but I'm not convinced. Philadelphia entered the game determined to shut down their running game, and the Eagles did it by putting eight in the box -- a familiar ploy when you're willing to leave receivers in single coverage.
Philadelphia was, and it didn't hurt them. Look for Dallas to try the same thing with Plaxico Burress is out for the season. That means the heat could be on Eli Manning, especially since Brandon Jacobs is out with a knee injury. Derrick Ward is a terrific relief pitcher, but he's the setup man; Jacobs is the closer. Without him, the Giants lean on a passing game short on weapons, and you better believe that keeps offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride up at night.
Something to consider: Twelve of the past 21 games in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less -- with nine by four or fewer points and three decided in overtimes.
Why Mondays shouldn't get you down
Cleveland at Philadelphia, 8:30 p.m. ET | Preview | Endzone
The line: Eagles by 13½
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| Brian Westbrook has six TDs in his past two games. (US Presswire) |
The only question with Cleveland is the team's future, and I'm not talking about Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn; I mean head coach Romeo Crennel and GM Phil Savage. Crennel looks like a goner, and Savage could be walking the plank, too, after the events of the past few weeks.
This one bears watching only to measure the Eagles for the next two games. They finish at Washington and home against the Cowboys. They could win both. Or they could lose both. What they can't do is lose another if they're serious about playing in January.
Something to consider: McNabb has gaudy Monday night numbers, with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. But look closely at that 8-6 record: He has won only one of his past six Monday night starts, a 2006 defeat of Green Bay.
Upset of the week
Kansas City over San Diego, 1 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Chargers by 4½
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| Tony G and K.C. came this close to winning in S.D. last month. (US Presswire) |
All I know is they have trouble winning on the road, with a 1-5 record this season. Bad, huh? It gets worse. The one win was at Oakland when they overcame a 15-3 deficit in the fourth quarter.
Maybe now that the Chargers are all but out of the division race they relax and play the football they're supposed to play, but my guess is they missed their wakeup call. I know Kansas City has won only two of its past 22 games, but the Chiefs are dangerous. They're in most of their games now. They seem to have found a quarterback. And their young starters are beginning to come around.
In short, they could pull the surprise.
Something to consider: The home team has won 18 of the past 25 games in this series, with Kansas City 10-3 against the Chargers dating back to 1995. The Chiefs have beaten San Diego nine times in the past 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium.
Crummy game of the week
Seattle at St. Louis, 1 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Seahawks by 2½
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| Steven Jackson and the Rams near the end of a lost season. (US Presswire) |
Call me cynical, but I think they were doomed the minute they carted out the ol' coach-in-waiting trick, too. Anyway, the Seahawks stink, and you saw why on Thanksgiving. No offense. No defense. No nothing.
The Rams, of course, are just as bad. No, they're worse. They can't score, and their defense has more cracks than the Liberty Bell. Eight times this season it has allowed 30 or more points, including a 37-13 loss in Seattle in September. At that time, there was hope for the Seahawks. Now, it's all about getting ready for next year.
Quick: Tell me which of these two last won a game and when was it? If you said, "Seattle," you qualify for the next government bailout. The Seahawks won on Oct. 26. Since then they're oh-for-six, which is better than St. Louis. The Rams are on a seven-game swoon, and now you know why this game is blacked out.
Something to consider: The Seahawks have had 24 players miss a total of 122 games through the first 14 weeks. In all, six of the opening day starters are on injured reserve and seven will miss at least five games each.
Games within the games
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| Clinton Portis isn't the only RB to spout off about his coach. (US Presswire) |
Jim Zorn vs. Clinton Portis. Another example of great timing. The Redskins are all but out of the playoff picture and Portis decides to trash the head coach. I think I liked him better when he showed up in costume.
Hines Ward vs. Ravens' "respect." Baltimore's defensive players went out of their way this week to say how much they "respected" Ward, but let's be honest: They dislike him -- vehemently dislike him -- and that's an understatement. If I'm Hines Ward, I go into this game with 360-degree vision.
Willie Parker vs. Mike Tomlin. When Parker suggested Pittsburgh has gotten away from "Steelers football," meaning the run, his head coach had to remind him to watch what he said and how he said it. Are you beginning to see a trend this week? Funny, I thought the guys you were supposed to punish were in the other locker room.
Chris Johnson vs. Steve Slaton: Both are rookie running backs. Each has run for more than 1,000 yards. Each is working on a string of two consecutive 100-yard performances. So which is better? Time to find out.
Five guys I'd like to be this weekend
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| Jay Cutler can engineer a 4-0 record vs. the rugged NFC South. (US Presswire) |
2. Denver quarterback Jay Cutler: Denver is in Carolina, and there's something about the NFC South that plays into Cutler's wheelhouse. He has four touchdown passes and one interception in three games vs. the division this year, and the Broncos have won four straight against NFC South opponents.
3. San Diego running back LaDainian Tomlinson: In his past four games against the Chiefs he is averaging 146.5 yards rushing per game. For his career, Tomlinson averages 105.8 yards per game in December.
4. Kansas City tight end Tony Gonzalez: He aims for his third straight 100-yard game vs. the Chargers.
5. Dallas quarterback Tony Romo: In his past two regular-season starts against the Giants he has eight touchdown passes, four in each game.
Just a hunch
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| Keep the roof open, Cardinals, for a home-field boost. (US Presswire) |
But that's not why you open the roof. You do it because you are home, which means you should enjoy the benefits of home-field advantage.
In this case, that means no roof because the Cardinals are better when it is missing. Honest. In fact, last week's defeat of St. Louis was their fifth straight in the great outdoors, and they're 5-1 under Ken Whisenhunt when there is no dome.
They're 5-4 without a roof since the stadium opened in 2006, but who's counting 2006? Life for this franchise began when Whisenhunt set foot in Arizona a year later.
Now, more than ever, take it off.
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| L.T. and the disappointing Chargers are Las Vegas' darlings. (US Presswire) |
Significant numbers
The Chargers are favored by 4½ over a Kansas City team that nearly beat them in early November. So what? So it marks a trend, with nobody liking San Diego more than Las Vegas.
The Chargers have been favored in every game this season but one, the 11-10 loss to Pittsburgh where they were a 4½-point underdog, and if referee Scott Green hadn't screwed up the finish of that game the Steelers would have held serve there.
Anyway, nobody takes advantage of the Chargers as much as Las Vegas, with the Bolts 5-8 against the spread this season.
Sunday's weather watch
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• Atlanta: Dome
• Cincinnati: Mostly cloudy, windy, high of 52
• Houston: Isolated thunderstorms, high of 76
• Indianapolis: Cloudy, windy, high of 49
• Jacksonville: Scattered showers, high of 69
• Kansas City: Few showers, windy, high of 57
• Miami: Scattered showers, high of 74
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Partly cloudy, high of 44
• St. Louis: Dome
• Phoenix: Few showers, high of 57
• Baltimore: Partly cloudy, high of 46
• Charlotte: Mostly cloudy, high of 50
• Oakland: Showers, high of 48
• Dallas: Partly cloudy, high winds, high of 72
Where we will be
• Pete will be in Dallas to tell us once and for all if Tony Romo should stick to football or ribs.
• I'll be in Baltimore to witness "The Bounty Hunters, Part II."
• Mike Freeman will be at Giants Stadium to bring us up to date on that All-New York Super Bowl.
