Peek at the Week: Hochuli adds to furious Week 17 finish

Game of the week

Denver at San Diego, 8:15 p.m. ET | Preview | Endzone

The line: Chargers by 8½

The story: It's the Ed Hochuli Bowl. Two teams, one title, loser goes home. Talk about drama. Actually, this time of year I'm thankful for Hochuli because without him this game means nothing. I'm also thankful Hochuli is nowhere near the 619 area code.

Mike Shanahan's underdog Broncos have been known to spring surprises in San Diego. (AP)

San Diego was hoping something like this would happen, and something did -- thanks to a little help from Denver ... er, Buffalo ... er, Tampa Bay. Anyway, the Bolts are where they want to be, one win from another division championship.

They're a heavy favorite because they're hot, Denver is not and the game is in San Diego. But I'd be careful here. For one, it's Mike Shanahan in a must-win game. For another, the Chargers are all over the map this season, winning here, losing there. Then there's Denver in San Diego. I remember a game in 2005 -- the season finale -- when the Broncos were supposed to mail it in, with the Chargers winning in a laugher.

Only it didn't happen. Denver prevailed, and Drew Brees was hurt.

OK, so the stakes are different, and Denver is just about out of running backs. It still has Jay Cutler, and last time he faced the Chargers he completed 18 passes to Brandon Marshall. I don't think that happens again, but I do think the Chargers should prepare for an aerial assault. Their pass defense ranks 31st, and, outside of Tatum Bell, Cutler is Denver's next best running back.

Bombs away, people. It's Goran Ivanisevic vs. Andy Roddick, with the last one to serve holding the advantage. Philip Rivers has the edge because he leads the league in touchdown passes and because he is angry. So are his teammates. Ed Hochuli, stay tuned.

Something to consider: Denver has won three of its last four season finales, with two of them going to overtimes.

Three games I'd like to see

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET | Preview | Endzone

The line: Vikings by 6½

The story: Here we go again with a season ender where everyone wonders what coach Tom Coughlin does next. Does he rest his starters? Does he play them? And if he does, for how long? It's Giants-Patriots, 2007, all over again, only a very different scenario for the G-Men.

Tarvaris Jackson's again the key to Minny's season. (AP)

A year ago, Coughlin played his starters because he was looking for a spark. And he found it when his team pushed New England to the mat, a game that convinced the Giants they could play with the best. This year, he doesn't need that spark. He gained it a week ago with an overtime defeat of Carolina.

So the question becomes: Who has the advantage? Well, naturally, it's Minnesota because the Vikings are home and because they have so much to gain ... like a division title. Plus, their head coach's job might be on the line.

The Vikings must play with the urgency they did not a week ago when they fumbled seven times, losing four of them, in a loss to Atlanta. If that happens again, I don't care if it's Eli Manning or Eli Whitney playing quarterback for the Giants, Minnesota takes another header.

The Vikings will start Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, and that's a gamble. It's also Brad Childress putting his neck on the line, and why not? He drafted him. He started him. And now he will stand by him.

But if Jackson fails, he might take Childress down with him. Yes, Jackson has been a different quarterback since returning. He has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions. I'll take that in a Minneapolis minute. But he's also 1-3 as a starter. Gus Frerotte, on the other hand, is 8-3. It doesn't take Einstein to figure out the safer choice.

Jackson's job will be to hand off to Adrian Peterson and get out of the way. After watching DeAngelo Williams shred the Giants for four touchdowns, that sounds like a good idea. But I worry what happens if the Vikings fall behind. Then you put Jackson in a position where he must take chances, and, sorry, but that makes me nervous.

Gus Frerotte, please stand by.

Something to consider: With seven touchdown passes the past three weeks, Jackson is tied for second most in the league, behind only Matt Cassel of New England. His passer rating of 126.5 over that period is second, too, behind the Colts' Peyton Manning (128.1).

Miami at N.Y. Jets, 4:15 p.m., ET | Preview

The line: Jets by 2½

The story: I keep looking at that betting line and wondering: Have these people seen the Jets lately? Because if they have there is no way they make them the favorites. Sure, New York can ruin Miami's playoff hopes ... and, yes, the Jets could win the division if they win and New England loses ... but look what Gang Green has done the last four weeks.

Nothing.

Will Chad Pennington have the last word Sunday? (AP)

I mean, were it not for J.P. Losman spreading a little Christmas cheer in the New York locker room these guys would be oh-for-four. The Jets stunk against Denver. They stunk against San Francisco. They stunk some more against Seattle. And they got lucky against Buffalo. That is not exactly what I'd call momentum.

Then there is Miami. It has won its past four and eight of its past nine. That's the sort of club I take seriously ... and I'm talking about the playoffs, not a meaningful season finale. I might worry about the Dolphins if there were anyone but Chad Pennington at quarterback, but he's so steady, so calm and so downright upright I don't see how he gets rattled.

Plus, he has something to prove here. Pennington was a popular guy with the Jets, and when he left there were plenty of Jets' fans sorry to see him go. So here is the perfect opportunity to thank them for their support by demonstrating that it was he, not Brett Favre, the Jets should have trusted at quarterback.

I don't need to go into that except to say that Favre has been winding down, with one touchdown pass and six interceptions the last four games. He looks tired, and the Jets' offense looks tired with him. And Pennington? He has six touchdowns and one interception the last four weeks. Oh, yeah, he didn't lose any of them, either.

All together now: C-H-A-D ... CHAD! CHAD! CHAD!

Something to consider: The Jets won eight of the last nine between these two and 17 of the past 21, with the streak dating back to their first meeting in 1998.

Dallas at Philadelphia, 4:15 p.m., ET| Preview

The line: Eagles by 1½

The story: Philadelphia loses a must-win game at Washington, gets torched by the local media, then crawls home to find ... what? ... that it's favored to beat Dallas in a game that can put the Cowboys in the playoffs. That tells me everything I need to know about the Cowboys. Nobody trusts them, and for good reason. They couldn't win at home last week. Why should they win in Philadelphia now?

Much rides on Tony Romo's shoulders in Philly. (AP)

But there's more than just that. Quarterback Tony Romo has a bad back, and, I'm sorry, I can't believe it didn't affect him on some of those deep throws a week ago. He's also recovering from flu-like symptoms. But the back and flu aren't the story here, his past is. Romo has trouble closing a season, going 0-2 in the playoffs the past two years and dropping the regular-season finales both times.

And that's where the key to this one might lie. The Eagles are unpredictable, with Donovan McNabb and the team's passing attack as stable as the Dow, but one area where they're consistent is against Dallas in December. They knocked off the Cowboys five straight times the last month of the year, and that's just part of the Dallas dilemma. The Cowboys haven't won a season ender since 1999, which means they dropped their last eight -- including one to Detroit a couple of years ago.

In Dallas, no less.

Philadelphia might not be playing for anything, but who cares? It's Dallas. It's Terrell Owens. It's a rivalry hotter than the pepperoni cheese steaks at Tony Luke's. The Eagles don't dislike the Cowboys; they loathe them. And the feeling is mutual.

People ask if Andy Reid plans to run the ball more than he did a week ago, and you can only hope. Dallas leads the league in sacks, and if I'm Reid I don't trust McNabb here as much as I do Brian Westbrook. You saw what happened when Baltimore handed off to Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain against the Cowboys. So try it again, and hope Ken Hamlin has to make a play.

Something to consider: Under Reid, the Eagles are 13-4 against divisional opponents in December -- the best record in the NFC East. Dallas is 8-12.

History in the making

Detroit at Green Bay, 1 p.m., ET | Preview

The line: Packers by 9½

The story: How could I not include this? Nobody has been in the position that Detroit finds itself, and Matt Millen, that curtain call is for you. Without him, none of this would be possible. The Lions are about to enter the Hall of Infamy with another loss, with Rod Marinelli enshrined as the game's losingest coach for one year.

I don't know about you, but I think that's something to celebrate.

OK, so the Packers haven't exactly been incendiary. In fact, they dropped their last five and seven of their past eight. But this no ordinary opponent. This is the Detroit Friggin' Lions, the game's worst football team ... maybe ever. And if you play for the Packers you don't want to be remembered as part of a club that kept the league doormat from circling the bases.

So there's that incentive for Green Bay. Plus, the Packers are home, where Detroit hasn't won since 1991. Follow the crumbs, people. If Detroit has an advantage, it's only this: It played its last five road games closely, with no spread higher than 10. The Lions pushed Indianapolis. They pushed Carolina, too. And they came this close to Chicago.

But this is perfection waiting to happen, and it's an opponent Green Bay hammered for 48 points earlier this season. I feel for William Clay Ford. I'm not sure what's worse anymore, his football team or the car business. All I know is that Ford doesn't have a better idea.

Something to consider: Aaron Rodgers needs 270 yards passing to join Lynn Dickey, Brett Favre and Don Majkowski as the only Packer with 4000 yards and 25 touchdown passes in one season. In his only start against the Lions, Rodgers was 24 of 38 for 328 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

Upset of the week

New Orleans over Carolina, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Panthers by 2½

The story: With a victory, the Panthers win the NFC South and become the conference's second seed. With a loss, they likely drop to the fifth seed (Atlanta has to beat St. Louis), destined to spend their life in the playoffs on the road. Hmmmm, sounds like an incentive to win.

Only there's one problem: NFC South teams typically don't lose at home, and count New Orleans in. The Saints are 5-1 in New Orleans, with their last loss there on Oct. 6. I know they're one-dimensional on offense, and their defense has more holes than Canal Street, but they have Drew Brees and that means an all-out blitzkrieg.

So prepare to see the rockets' red glare again. Brees will throw, throw and throw some more as he chases Dan Marino's single-season record. New Orleans isn't as good as Carolina, but the Panthers are 3-4 on the road, including 0-2 in the NFC South. That has me leaning ever so slightly toward New Orleans. The Saints aren't playing for the playoffs, but they are playing for Brees -- and that may be enough.

Something to consider: The Saints have surrendered only 11 sacks, lowest in the NFC and second lowest in the NFL.

Crummy game of the week

Kansas City at Cincinnati, 1 p.m. | Preview

The line: Bengals by 2½

The story: Forget the final score. The over/under that has the most interest is the crowd count. Do I hear 25,000? Maybe 20? It's Harvard vs. Coastal Carolina at quarterback, and I'll take the Ivy Leaguer ... provided, of course, we're taking a calculus final. Otherwise, how can you not like Tyler Thigpen?

He has been nothing short of surprising in his role as the Chiefs' starter, with Kansas City pushing the Jets, the Bucs, the Chargers (twice) and Miami to narrow victories. Herm Edwards probably coaches his last game here for Kansas City, but credit him for keeping his team in all but one of the last eight games -- and doing it with a third-string quarterback.

This is nothing more than a final audition for Thigpen, who may or may not be the Chiefs' starter a year from now, and a chance to say goodbye to Chad Whatever. After what the Bengals have endured, I can't imagine the circus staying in town.

Something to consider: The Chiefs have been outscored by an average of less than five points per game in their last four road games.

Games within the games

Chad Pennington vs. Brett Favre: Pennington wanted to start for the Jets, and he insisted he could win the job. Maybe. Only he never was given the chance. The Jets gave up on him when they moved for Favre. If someone with the club thought Pennington could do the job the Jets never would've budged for Favre. But they did. Now they brace themselves for the payback.

Jon Gruden vs. the Raiders: The only guy I know who would like to beat the Raiders more than Mike Shanahan is Gruden. OK, maybe Norv Turner. Anyway, that lethargy you witnessed by the Bucs disappears this weekend. It's just win, baby.

Philip Rivers vs. last laughs: I'm convinced that Rivers didn't make the Pro Bowl because some guys in this league don't like him, with the entire Denver ballclub included. So the Broncos' Jay Cutler gets in, Rivers sits out. Sorry, that's a mistake. And Rivers is determined to prove it on national TV.

Mike Holmgren vs. last call: It's Holmgren's last game with Seattle, and we'll miss him. He shouldn't have to bow out like this, but I have a sneaky feeling we won't have to wait long to see Mike again. Holmgren promises to sit out next season, which is fine. There should be another raft of coaching vacancies to fill in 2010.

Terrell Owens vs. Philly Fanatics: They don't hate T.O. in Philadelphia; they abhor him. I was there when they burned his jersey in a parking lot ... and Owens was still with the Eagles. This will be ugly. If I'm the Cowboys I move the security team from Pacman Jones to Owens ... for everyone's safety. No Brotherly Love in Philadelphia this weekend.

Five guys I'd like to be this weekend

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan: He has a passer rating of 100.3 at home, and the Falcons are 6-0 when Ryan hits 100. But that's not all: He closes the season with St. Louis, which means he gets to punctuate his Offensive Rookie of the Year award with an exclamation point.

2. New England coach Bill Belichick: He aims for his 12th consecutive win in December and his fifth straight on the road vs. an AFC East opponent. Only this is not just an AFC East opponent; this is Belichick's trained seal, a Buffalo team that lost its last 10 to the Pats.

3. Kansas City quarterback Tyler Thigpen: In his last four road games he completed 64.1 percent of his passes, with six touchdowns and one interception. Now he winds up against Cincinnati.

4. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin: He's tough on Santa Claus but tougher on Cleveland. Tomlin is 3-0 against the Browns, and the Steelers won their last 10 against them.

5. Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner: So he stunk last weekend. These aren't the Patriots he's facing, and there are no snow alerts in Glendale. In his last six starts vs. Seattle, Warner has four 300-yard games, including 395 the last time they met.

Just a hunch

Drew Brees breaks Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in one season. He is 401 yards short of the record, and the Saints are out of the playoff picture. So what do you think happens? Yep, me, too. There is no way the Saints don't empty the playbook for Brees.

New Orleans was supposed to make it to the playoffs this year but a lot of injuries, a little bad luck and a surprisingly robust division kept them out. So there is nothing left now except beating Carolina in a game that means a lot more to the Panthers than it does New Orleans and Brees making history.

Of course, the Saints would like to make both happen, and they might (they're 6-1 at home)... but only with Brees throwing 50 or more times. That much I'm sure of. I also believe he doesn't stop until he passes Marino. With another 300-yard effort Brees ties the league record for most 300-yard games in one season (10), but who cares? It's Marino he's after, and it's Marino he will catch.

Significant numbers

People talk about what happens if Buffalo knocks off New England. Huh? Buffalo knocks off New England when the Raiders reach .500, Pacman Jones works for the United Way and Rod Marinelli gets a contract extension.

It's not just that the Patriots have been good against the Bills, it's that that they own them. They won their last 10 vs. the Bills and 15 of the past 16. The only glitch in there was the 2002 season opener when Buffalo hammered them 31-0 in Buffalo.

Since then it's been all Tom Brady. Brady isn't around anymore, but that hasn't stopped the wheels from turning. Matt Cassel put a 20-10 defeat on the Bills in early November in a game where he threw for 234 yards.

The weekend weather watch

• Atlanta: (Dome)
• Buffalo: High winds, rain, high of 49,
• Cincinnati: Partly cloudy, wind, high of 45.
• Green Bay: Partly cloudy, high of 21.
• Houston: Mostly sunny, high of 61.
• Indianapolis: High winds, partly cloudy, high of 37.
• Minneapolis: (Dome)
• New Orleans: (Dome)
• Pittsburgh: Showers, high winds, high of 56.
• Tampa: Sunny, high of 80.
• Phoenix: Sunny, high of 62.
• Baltimore: Showers, wind, high of 56.
• East Rutherford, N.J.: High winds, showers, high of 60.
• Philadelphia: Showers, high winds, high of 58.
• San Francisco: Few showers, high of 56.
• San Diego: Sunny, high of 65.

Where we will be

•  Pete will be in Philadelphia to keep the welcome wagon from running over T.O.

•  I'll be at Giants Stadium to write Chad Pennington's acceptance speech for Comeback Player of the Year.

•  Mike Freeman will be in Baltimore to see where there are more crabs -- the concession stands or the Jags' locker room.

•  Gregg Doyel will be in Indianapolis to write Peyton Manning's MVP acceptance speech.