Judge: Look no further for free-agent bargins
Fan-mania.
That's what free agency sometimes turns out to be for teams. The fans want names and the general managers sometimes give in, failing to realize that some of those names aren't as good as their reputations.
That's dangerous.
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| Houshmandzadeh is a hard worker but he doesn't run that well and will be 32 this year. (Getty Images) |
Fan-like actions rarely pay off.
With that in mind, I caution teams about certain players heading into this year's free-agency period, which opens Friday at 12:01 a.m.
Beware of name players on the downside of their careers, and one-hit wonders. By the latter, I mean players who have done it for one year and are seeking to be paid like a star.
Here are a handful of players who I would be careful about paying in the next couple of days:
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
He's a nice player. He works hard. He's a good guy. He loves the game. But there are two things working against him:
He doesn't run that well and he will be 32 this year.
In a lean market for receivers, he's the top guy. That will push up the money to a number way too high for what he is worth.
Is he a No. 1 receiver? That's the question teams have to ask. I say he isn't. Somebody will think he is.
There is a negative number that stands out when I evaluate him. And that's yards-per-catch. Houshmandzadeh averaged 9.8 per catch last season. In the past five seasons, his per-catch average has dropped each season, going from 13.4 in 2004 to his career-low last season.
That's a player who is more complementary than star. That's why I wouldn't pay him star money.
Chad Johnson he isn't.
For a team looking for a second receiver, Houshmandzadeh would work. As a No. 1, I bring up a name from the past -- Alvin Harper, only he ran better.
Ray Lewis, LB, Baltimore Ravens
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| Lewis has two more good years left in his body. (Getty Images) |
He just isn't anymore.
Lewis turns 34 in May. That means if he plays three more years, he'll be 37 after three years of a five-year deal.
That's not worth it. Lewis played well for the Ravens last year, turning back some of the critics who had been picking his game apart in recent years toward his side.
But Lewis is perfect for what the Ravens do. They keep him clean, keep blockers off him, and allow him to run to the football. How many teams can give him that?
When Lewis didn't have that a few years ago, his play tailed off.
He has two more good years left, but he'd be wise to stay in Baltimore. Lewis needs the Ravens more than the Ravens need Lewis.
He owns that city. When he's done playing, if he retires having played only for the Ravens, it will mean a lot to his post-football life.
The Cowboys and Jets, two teams rumored to be interested in his services, would be wise to stay clear.
Ray Lewis at 26 would get what he wants from me.
Ray Lewis at 34 is too much of a risk.
Matt Cassel, QB, New England Patriot
For those who are interested in trading for Cassel and giving him a long-term contract, I bring up two names:
David Garrard and Derek Anderson.
Those two had big seasons in 2007 and then were rewarded with contract extensions last spring.
I call it one-hit-wonder syndrome.
The same might be coming for Cassel. Yes, he played well in relief of Tom Brady, surprisingly well. But was he a product of that offense? He seemed to have trouble with the deep passes at times, which would be a concern if I were considering trading and paying for him.
Trading and paying is always tough on a franchise. Unless your name is Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, I'm not sure I get into that.
If Cassel were a free agent, I'd be more interested. As a trade-and-pay -- since he was given the franchise label -- not so much.
Matt Birk, C, Minnesota Vikings
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| Birk can no longer move people around. (Getty Images) |
He isn't anymore.
If you doubt me, take a look at the Vikings-Eagles playoff game. Both Broderick Bunkley and Mike Patterson dominated Birk. He never blocked them.
Birk no longer has the power to get people moved. He will be 33 this summer, which is also a risk.
He's still a smart, heady player, but don't get caught up in the name here. This isn't the same Matt Brik that went to Pro Bowls.
Antonio Smith, DE, Arizona Cardinals
NFL teams are always searching for pass rushers, usually overpaying to get them. Smith is about to be overpaid.
He's the right age at 27, but in five seasons he has 14½ sacks. Does that warrant a mega-deal?
I think not.
But he's getting one. Why? Because many people paid attention to how he played in the playoffs when he had two sacks in four games.
One has to wonder if that was a money push. And where was it the rest of his career?
There is some thinking that Smith turns it on in big games but doesn't play hard all the time.
I like him as a player. I just don't love him.
Somebody does, which is why he will be overpaid.
