If it's May, there must be another list to compile, and I just found one: The year's top 10 difference makers.
That's another way of saying 10 guys I believe will have the biggest impacts on their clubs, and you might notice all are with playoff contenders. That eliminates someone like, say, Matthew Stafford, not because I don't think he can be a franchise quarterback but because I think it will take years for the Lions to resurrect themselves.
I wanted to include Denver's Josh McDaniels because he's pulling all the strings in Denver, but then I started thinking: Whom do the Broncos challenge this year -- San Diego or the rest of the AFC West? I think you can answer that one.
Anyway, here is my top 10.
Tom Brady, quarterback, New England: Randy Moss already is on record as saying that "the sky's the limit" for this year's Pats, meaning they could be more explosive and more productive than the 2007 squad. Good luck. All those guys did was throw for an NFL-record 50 touchdown passes and not lose a regular-season game. Nevertheless, Moss' boast is an indication of what people close to the team think about Brady's recovery. So was the trade of backup Matt Cassel to Kansas City. Both are signals he's A-OK. But Moss should be careful: Brady suffered a serious knee injury, and it generally takes a year of playing before patients achieve full recovery. In some cases -- Carson Palmer, step forward -- it takes longer. Without Brady, the Pats still finished 11-5. Imagine what they can be if he's 80-90 percent. Maybe Moss is warm. All I know is we get our first glimpse of Brady this Thursday when he goes through an OTA open to the media.
Jason Peters, tackle, Philadelphia: He's a more significant pick-up than Jeremy Maclin, Stacy Andrews or LaSean McCoy. The reason: He protects Donovan McNabb's back, and the Eagles go only as far as McNabb takes them. A year ago, tackle Tra Thomas wore out as the season wore on, with Thomas overpowered by bull rushers. Still, the Eagles hung around through the NFC championship game and might have made it to Super Bowl XLIII if their defense didn't melt down. Now, they have two new tackles, a new running back and a big-time playmaker as their latest wide receiver, but I still think Peters is the key addition. Coach Andy Reid believes you build championships from the inside out, and it's hard to disagree. A year ago, he had aging tackles who had little left by season's end. Now, he has one of the best in the business at left tackle, especially now that Peters is happy with his new contract. Look for the Eagles' rushing and passing attacks to benefit, which translate to Eagles in the playoffs again.
Shawne Merriman, linebacker, San Diego: In 2007, the Chargers led the league in takeaways and ranked fifth in sacks when Merriman was healthy. A year later, their takeaways dropped by one half (from 48 to 24), and their sacks were down 14 (from 42 to 28). Do the math: Merriman had 12.5 sacks in 2007. But the Chargers lost more than his production a year ago -- without Merriman on the attack, opponents started double-teaming guys like linebacker Shaun Phillips. Phillips' sack total dropped by only one, but Merriman's effect had such a deleterious effect on the slumping Bolts that defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell was gone by midseason -- fired after the Chargers went nine straight quarters without a sack or interception. Now Merriman is back, and the Chargers' ballhawking should be, too. Merriman is in the last year of his contract, and you know what happens to players in contract drives: They often produce some of the biggest numbers of their careers. Merriman makes the Chargers a Super Bowl contender again.
Chris "Beanie" Wells, running back, Arizona: Maybe this is putting too much on one guy -- especially a rookie -- but look what happened with the Cards a year ago: They were within a minute of winning the Super Bowl with the league's 32nd-ranked rushing attack. Coach Ken Whisenhunt wants to run the ball and believes a solid ground game is the foundation to winning football, but in two years his teams ranked 29th and dead last in rushing. Now, they exchange Wells for Edgerrin James and try to run again -- and this time they believe they might actually make it. I know what the Cards have in quarterback Kurt Warner -- what I don't know is what they have in Wells. It won't take much to budge the NFL's worst rushing attack, but the bigger question is this: How much can Wells do in one season, and is he as good as he seemed at Ohio State? If he flubs, the Cards always have Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to carry them. If he succeeds, run for cover. Arizona won't beat defenses as much as they will consume them.
Hakeem Nicks, wide receiver, N.Y.Giants: The Giants went fishing for Braylon Edwards a couple of months ago, then backed off when the price got too high. So they looked to the draft for their next wide receiver, and the draft delivered Nicks and Cal Poly's Ramses Barden. Nicks was the first-rounder -- the Giants think he can play and can play immediately. They better be right. Either he or Barden must have an impact, otherwise the Giants are back to where they were the last five games of last season without Plaxico Burress -- and that's not good. They lost four of them, including their only playoff appearance, and quarterback Eli Manning didn't throw a TD pass to a wide receiver in any of them. Nicks has outstanding hands and could be the outside playmaker Big Blue needs to back off defenses. One problem: rookie wide receivers typically don't make immediate splashes. Of course, tell that to Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson.
Sage Rosenfels, quarterback, Minnesota: I quit wondering what happens with Brett Favre and Minnesota weeks ago. Now I focus on what I know about the Vikings, and if the quarterback position is a duel between Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson, Rosenfels wins. If the Vikings had anything but the slimmest of confidence in Jackson, they wouldn't have made the deal for Rosenfels. Plus, this wasn't the first time they tried to get the guy. They offered a second-rounder a year ago and were rebuffed. Obviously, someone in Minnesota likes him. Minnesota is a club that is missing its most important element, and that's a bona fide quarterback -- but I think one is about to arrive, and, no, that's not Favre. Rosenfels doesn't have to be Fran Tarkenton. He just has to be effective enough with his passing to keep defenses honest, and a year ago Gus Frerotte was just that -- he was 8-3 as a starter. Rosenfels is an upgrade.
Jim Caldwell, head coach, Indianapolis: People always wonder what it's like to follow a legend in pro sports and Caldwell is about to find out. Replacing Tony Dungy isn't difficult -- it's impossible. You follow him, you don't replace the guy. Fortunately for Indianapolis, Caldwell had a year to apprentice under Dungy as associate head coach, so that should make the transition easier. But this won't: He just lost offensive line coach Howard Mudd and offensive coordinator Tom Moore to unexpected retirements brought on by the league's new pension plan. Owner Jim Irsay said both have agreed to stay on as consultants, but that doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. If it were, Peyton Manning wouldn't be asking questions about the status of his former coaches. Anyway, Caldwell just drew the short straw. He replaces a man who, in seven years, never missed the playoffs and won a Super Bowl. Now he must survive in a division with Tennessee, Jacksonville and Houston.
Matt Hasselbeck, quarterback, Seattle: When the Seahawks passed on Mark Sanchez, the message was clear: They not only believe in Hasselbeck as their quarterback for now -- they believe in him as their quarterback for the forseeable future. Hasselbeck turns 34 this season, which isn't a problem, but he's coming off a year where he was sidelined nine games by a back injury -- and that could be an issue. If the Seahawks thought so, they would've drafted Sanchez. But they're confident he can and will be the same guy he was the four seasons before 2008 -- or when they won four straight division championships and went to the Super Bowl. At this spring's workouts, coach Jim Mora looked for cracks in Hasselbeck's hardware and couldn't find them. "He looks the same to me," Mora said. If that's true, the NFC West is in trouble. When Hasselbeck is healthy the Seahawks are a playoff contender. When he's not -- well, look at what happened last season.
Mark Sanchez, quarterback, N.Y. Jets: The Jets didn't lose the division last year because of their defense or their wide receivers or their offensive line. They lost because of their quarterback. Brett Favre not only wasn't very good down the stretch, he was dreadful. He threw for two touchdowns and nine interceptions in his last five starts, four of which the Jets lost. So they traded up in the draft for Sanchez, gambling that he will be do for them what Eli Manning did for the Giants. Maybe, maybe not. But it's an experiment worth watching. For the moment, he and Kellen Clemens battle for the starting job, but who's kidding whom: The job belongs to Sanchez. As soon as he demonstrates he has a handle on the playbook, he's in the huddle. I just don't know what to make of the guy; one GM told me he didn't think Sanchez had the arm strength to play in the Meadowlands and was more suited to an indoor team. I guess we're about to find out.
Jay Cutler, quarterback, Chicago: Let's get this out of the way right now: I don't think Cutler is a good fit for the Bears, and I don't think the Bears' receivers (Hello? Someone? Anyone?) are a good fit for Cutler. But that doesn't diminish the importance of the move. Chicago missed the playoffs by a game last year, and a common complaint was the quarterbacking. The Bears rushed out to get Cutler because they believe he can push them over the top, but I don't believe you win in Chicago in November and December with Jay Cutler. I believe you win with an effective rushing attack and formidable defense. Cutler didn't win at Vanderbilt and he didn't win Denver. How does he in Chicago with Devin Hester as his best receiver and Orlando Pace as his left tackle? Cutler was sacked 11 times last season -- now he could be sacked 11 times by Minnesota. The Bears won nine games last year yet Cutler hasn't won more than eight in any season. Chicago is -- or at least has been -- all about tough guys doing what it takes to win. Cutler hasn't won anything, and he started looking for an exit at the first mention of a trade. Jerry Angelo, I hope you know what you're doing.
