Summertime and the living ain't easy -- not for coaches on the bubble, it's not, and you don't have to look far to find them. They're the ones sweating the most because they must win, and they must win now. Otherwise, they're looking for a realtor instead of the next wide receiver.
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| Expect Marvin Lewis to be safe in Cincy for at least two more seasons. (Getty Images) |
I know it could affect Mike Brown's thinking in Cincinnati. He has Marvin Lewis for two more years, and people ask me all the time how much longer the Bengals stay with him. I'd say at least two seasons. Brown likes him, and he's not going to pay two head coaches at once.
So I don't include Lewis in here for the same reason I didn't include him last year: It makes fiscal sense to have him fulfill his contract. Others I'm not so sure about, and the roll call begins now.
The hot list
Dick Jauron, Buffalo : I love the guy. So do his players. But he must start winning, and good luck in the mine field that is the AFC East. Jauron has three consecutive 7-9 finishes on his resume, and that won't cut it anymore. Essentially, he must start winning or reach the playoffs to keep his job. And that's with Tom Brady back for New England, Rex Ryan in New York and the Dolphins coming off a division-winning season.
Tell me how he does it with Terrell Owens in the lineup, too. Maybe T.O. is a box-office attraction, but he turns 36 this season and plays for a team that wins in November and December by running the football, not throwing it. My sympathies to Trent Edwards. He's the quarterback who must keep T.O. happy. And if Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo and Jeff Garcia couldn't do it tell me how Edwards will. That Jauron would be interested in taking on the headache that is Terrell Owens tells me he's feeling the squeeze. He looks at what Owens can do for him on the field, which is only natural when you must produce, but he should be concerned with what he could do to his locker room.
Wade Phillips, Dallas: I'm not sure how he survived last season's self-immolation, but Jerry Jones insists Phillips is his man and that he's going nowhere. But Phillips is on a short leash. He hasn't won a playoff game, and he didn't put the Cowboys in the playoffs last season. Not good. Now that Dallas has a glittering new stadium and Jones has stripped Phillips of home wreckers Owens and Pacman Jones, he will want immediate results -- which means no more excuses. Phillips must put the Cowboys back in the playoffs, and he must do it now.
Phillips is another guy you can't help but like, but too often he seems over his head on the sidelines, befuddled with what's going on out there on the field. Too often, his team seems just as clueless, going 3-6 in December and January on Phillips' watch, including a humiliating 44-6 meltdown in last year's season finale in Philadelphia. Phillips survived that disaster only because Jones stood by him, but it's time to reward his owner ... or else.
Jim Zorn, Washington: The only route more difficult to navigate than the AFC East is the NFC East, and Zorn better find a map to the top soon. He doesn't have to win the division, but he probably has to make the playoffs or make a legitimate run at them. The Redskins were 8-8 a year ago, which is pretty good for someone in his first season as a head coach, but not all that good when you break it down. The Redskins started 6-2, then floundered down the stretch as reports of Zorn's firing swirled around the beleaguered head coach. He survived, but another fizzle, and he's out.
It's not so much that he isn't qualified; it's that there are others out there who are more qualified, with Mike Shanahan and Mike Holmgren the first that come to mind. Tell me Daniel Snyder wouldn't make the change if either were interested. Both have histories of success, both won Super Bowls and both are products of the San Francisco 49ers' system -- critical when you consider that former San Francisco talent scout and Washington's executive vice president of football operations Vinny Cerrato may be making the call.
Brad Childress, Minnesota: I've liked this guy since he was in Philadelphia, and I think he has the right idea in Minnesota -- weeding out the undesirables until he finds players who fit his system. Fortunately, he reached the playoffs in the nick of time, which was last season, but then the Vikings blew a tire.
Now they're talking about Brett Favre, and that worries me for a numbers of reasons: 1) It's the kind of desperate move a desperate coach would make; 2) the guy turns 40 this season; 3) he's 2-6 against Lovie Smith in Chicago, the team on Minnesota's heels, and 4) he hasn't played well in three of his last four seasons and was positively horrible down the stretch last year.
I hear people with the Vikings say, well, if Favre is available you have to take a look at him. OK, so look. You look at menus all the time; you just don't order everything. The Vikings don't have to take the leap, but the gun is pointed at Childress if they do. It's win or else. If Favre does for the Vikings what he did for the Jets he will have ended the tenures of two head coaches in two years.
On the back burner
Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville: Normally, I'd say he shouldn't be all concerned. But the Jaguars just completed a 5-11 season, and Del Rio hasn't reached the playoffs in two of the past three years. Plus, the team is down 15,000 in season tickets, more than doubling the nonrenewal rate of previous years. So what? So one voice that owner Wayne Weaver listens to is that of the fan, and the fan is telling him he/she isn't interested in the team. That is not good for Del Rio.
But there's a catch here that's worth mentioning and that might work in Del Rio's favor: It will be expensive to ice Del Rio after this season. In fact, it will be very expensive, costing Weaver $15 million. Del Rio has four years left on his contract, and that -- plus the expected 2011 lockout -- might convince Weaver to stand by his man. Del Rio needs to get Jacksonville hot and bothered over his football team again, otherwise he's looking at a string of blackouts -- and that won't escape the notice of his owner.
Gary Kubiak, Houston: Let me start by saying that this is a bit of a stretch for two reasons: 1) The Texans should be decent this season, and 2) owner Bob McNair is not fond of firing anybody. But McNair also is the guy who said, "I think we're capable [of making the playoffs] and I expect that’s what we will do." He didn't say "hope;" he said "expect," and that can’t have escaped the attention of the Texans' coaching staff. Because if you expect something, and it doesn't happen you’re disappointed -- and McNair has had seven seasons of disappointment.
There is no question that Kubiak has made the Texans more watchable, but he still hasn't had a winning season. With McNair on record as saying he expects to make the playoffs, the heat is on the head coach to give his owner what he wants. Do I think Kubiak gets fired? No. But if the Texans don’t break through this year -- and I mean make a run at the playoffs and produce their first winning season -- I can see McNair doing what he doesn't want to do.
