Season Picks: Pack back, but Eagles soar to higher ground

Prisco: Patriots-Giants redux | Judge: Ten bold predictions

MVP: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots. New England goes nowhere without this guy, and last year proved it. So the Patriots went 11-5 with an inexperienced Matt Cassel making the throws. That was remarkable. But they still missed the playoffs, and that doesn't happen with Brady. The year before they were 16-0 with the guy throwing 50 touchdown passes. Aside from Randy Moss, tell me another player on this team who is Hall of Fame worthy. There isn't one. Brady is the key to New England's success, and that's not exactly a revelation. If it were left up to me I'd make him a finalist every season.

Coach of the Year: Mike McCarthy, Packers. He took a major step backward last season with a 6-10 finish, but look what happened: The defense endured a zillion injuries and, basically, suffered a meltdown. So McCarthy does the smart thing and hires Dom Capers, who installs the 3-4 and the Packers get back to where they should be -- which is on top of the NFC North. Green Bay had seven losses last season where the difference was no more than four points. That luck changes if the Packers can produce a legitimate defense. They will now.

Offensive Player of the Year: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals. With all these stories circulating about Anquan Boldin's sore hamstring, I'm left with one conclusion: We're back to where we were at the end of last year, when Fitzgerald was a one-man demolition derby. It's rare that wide receivers win this award, but if one guy can it's Fitzgerald. He's the best wide receiver anywhere, and he's practically impossible to defend. The Pittsburgh Steelers tried in Super Bowl XLIII and did a good job for three quarters. Then Fitzgerald went off. Get ready for more fireworks.

Defensive Player of the Year: DeMarcus Ware, LB, Cowboys. He could've won this award last year when he produced a league-leading 20 sacks. Now he's in a contract drive, and that often compels prospective free agents to produce big numbers. One problem: Ware might not be an unrestricted free agent because 2010 looks more and more like an uncapped season. Anyway, Ware is a load, and with Wade Phillips running the defense in Dallas he should be in or around the quarterback every weekend. Ware is a difference maker and one of the best defenders anywhere. This year he gets what he deserves.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos. Lord knows he will have his chances. In Mike Shanahan's system it used to be that whoever carried the ball was penciled in for 1,100-1,200 yards. Now it's Josh McDaniels running the show and, if Kyle Orton is your quarterback, it makes sense not to take chances and to run as much as you can. Enter Moreno, the best back in this year's draft. He should be called on for a starring role, but I'll admit it: I'm just not sure what to make of the Broncos, their head coach and their direction. Nevertheless, I make him a favorite over Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy and Arizona's Chris Wells.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Brian Orakpo, LB, Redskins. Another tough call, with Green Bay's B.J. Raji the competition, but I liked everything about Orakpo when I visited the Redskins. He crushed the pocket. He exploded off the ball. He dropped into coverage without struggling. In short, he didn't look out of position or out of his league. The Redskins will use him at outside linebacker in base defenses, then move him to right defensive end on obvious passing downs. To say they're pleased with Orakpo is an understatement; they're overjoyed, with players and coaches lining up to extol the University of Texas product. "He's really quick and really strong," said tackle Chris Samuels. "He can do some of the things that DeMarcus Ware does." That works for me.

Comeback Player of the Year: This one is a dead-bolt cinch. It's Brady again, and please tell me I don't have to explain. He suffered a major knee injury the first game of last year, then underwent complicated surgeries that had skeptics questioning his future. Well, the future is now, and Brady is healthy, happy and ready to lead the Patriots to another division title. New England shakes up its personnel every season, but two things remain: Brady and playoff appearances. Read the tea leaves, people. As long as Brady is around the Patriots are A-OK. So he won't throw 50 passes again. Big deal. He'll throw more than just about everyone out there. And he'll win more, too.

Stepback player: Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles. It's not that I don't believe in this guy. He's one of the top running backs anywhere and, I've always believed, the MVP of this team. But Westbrook has taken a pounding in his career, and he gutted out last season despite painful injuries that might have sidelined others. Now the Eagles have a perfect backup in rookie LeSean McCoy, who can do all the things that Westbrook can and is nine years younger. Plus, they have more weapons for quarterback Donovan McNabb. That means the Eagles might be forced to rely less on Westbrook, which also means his numbers come down.

Team on the rise: Green Bay Packers. Finally, the Packers got it right by hiring Capers. Their defense was a mess last year, and McCarthy resolved to straighten it out. So he hired Capers, and watch what happens when the Pack gets Capers' system down. Most people like Minnesota in the NFC North, but give me Green Bay because I'll take Capers defense over Brett Favre's arm. Remember, this is the team that went to the NFC Championship Game two years ago, then fizzled in 2008 when its defense self-destructed. I don't doubt what Aaron Rodgers can do, but I did wonder about the Packers' ability to stop opponents. Not anymore, I don't.

Team on the decline: Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are one of those organizations that understands itself, always making the right moves to keep it afloat. But I worry about them this year because they seem off, out of sync and damaged. I particularly worry about the loss of defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu. If you play in a division with Michael Turner you want someone who can plug the middle, and Kemoeatu won't be there to help out. I also wonder about this team's history. Carolina never puts consecutive playoff years together. In 2005 it went to the conference championship game. A year later it was 8-8. In 2003 it went to the Super Bowl. A year later it was 7-9. I think you get the idea. Look out below.

Best free-agent pickup: Matt Birk, C, Ravens. The Ravens lost Jason Brown to St. Louis so they had an opening here, and they filled it with one of the coolest, calmest, most competent centers on the planet. I don't care that Birk is 33. In fact, I like it. He's the perfect guy to handle a young and developing quarterback like Joe Flacco. Birk has the experience to settle down his young QB and the ability to keep defenders off of him. Remember, he was part of that Minnesota offensive line that opened holes for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. He's in the right place at the right time, with Flacco in need of an accomplished, experienced center he can trust.

Worst free-agent pickup: Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota. This is a good move if it were made five years ago. But Favre turns 40 this fall, and 40-year-old quarterbacks get hurt. That happened to him down the stretch last season, and the results were disastrous: The Jets not only blew the division, they got left out of the playoffs. Favre was 1-4 his last five starts, throwing nine interceptions along the way, and would've been 0-5 were it not for J.P. Losman fumbling away a Buffalo victory. The road to the finish is tough again, and Favre will find it as tough to navigate as it was a year ago. Brad Childress might regret this move.

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